October Starts With a Bang

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Bitcoin Blasts Off

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! We are already going ballistic on the very first day of October, so let’s quickly dive in!

🚀 What a start to the month: Bitcoin has skyrocketed from $114k all the way to $117,500 in just a single day.

So what happened ❔ 

🟡 First, the U.S. government has shut down. Congress failed to pass a budget, which means federal agencies run out of funding until a deal is made. Whenever this happens, investors start to worry about the dollar and the broader economy. That uncertainty prompts some to seek alternatives, such as gold or Bitcoin, assets that are outside government control. This seemingly has had a positive impact on BTC.

🟢 Second, the ADP jobs data (a monthly snapshot of private-sector employment in the U.S.) came in far worse than expected. Instead of gaining 50k jobs, the private sector actually lost 32k. That weakness signals the economy is slowing down, which in turn changes expectations for the Fed:

• Less pressure to keep rates high

• Higher odds that cuts come sooner than expected

Lower rates mean more liquidity, which is typically bullish for crypto.

Put those together:

• Government shutdown = hedge flows into BTC

• Weak jobs = higher odds of rate cuts
  ➡️ And that’s why Bitcoin ripped today.

What’s Next?
The key level to watch is Bitcoin’s monthly open at $114,500. If BTC retests and holds that level, further upside is possible. If it breaks, we could quickly slide back into the downside chop.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Is Altseason Finally Approaching?

↪️ The narrative has flipped fast, yet again. Just last week, sentiment was heavily bearish. Now, there’s a glimmer of optimism.

At the moment, altcoins face a tough challenge.

• They want to follow Bitcoin’s rally.

• But many traders still doubt the move is reliable.

Here’s what to watch:

• BTC Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is pushing higher, eyeing 60% on the weekly chart. That typically means alts will continue to lag for a while.

• Resilience Test: For alts to gain traction, they need to show strength when BTC dips. If they stop getting wiped out on pullbacks, confidence in altseason will build.

• Altcoin Chart: The total alt market (excluding the top 10) recently put in a higher low. If that structure holds over the next 1–2 weeks, the probability of a Q4 altseason rises sharply.

❎ Altseason isn’t here yet, but conditions are slowly improving. If Bitcoin holds $114,500 and consolidates, alts may finally get the green light in the weeks ahead.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

VisionSys launches $2B Solana treasury with Marinade Finance
AI firm VisionSys teams up with Marinade to build a $2B Solana treasury, starting with $500M in SOL acquisitions and staking.

World Liberty Financial explores tokenized assets with USD1 stablecoin
Trump-backed World Liberty plans to tokenize commodities like oil and timber, pairing them with USD1, now the fifth-largest stablecoin.

Metaplanet becomes fourth-largest public bitcoin holder
Japan’s Metaplanet buys 5,268 BTC for $623M, bringing holdings to 30,823 BTC and ranking as the fourth-largest public bitcoin holder.

Foresight Ventures launches $50M stablecoin fund
Foresight Ventures unveils a $50M fund to back stablecoin infrastructure projects, calling stablecoins the backbone of modern payments.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – The US Government Shutdown (01.10.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen breaks down the current US government shutdown and what it could mean for Bitcoin, stocks, and gold. Instead of headlines driving panic, he looks at past shutdowns to shape his outlook.

Key Points from Cowen

• Bitcoin’s history with shutdowns

  • BTC saw shutdowns in 2013 and 2018.

  • Both times, Bitcoin had short-term dips of around 20%, but that’s normal volatility.

  • Shutdowns didn’t alter the bigger trend - bull markets kept running or bear markets kept dragging.

• S&P 500 patterns

  • If stocks are falling into a shutdown, it often marks a bottom (2013, 2018).

  • If stocks are rising into a shutdown, it can trigger a mild correction (around 5–10%).

  • In all cases, the S&P eventually recovered once the shutdown ended.

• Gold’s reaction

  • Gold has often rallied through shutdowns.

  • Sometimes it stalls or dips slightly afterward, but the long-term bullish trend usually stays intact.

• Cowen’s big takeaway

  • Shutdowns don’t define market direction.

  • If anything, they act as short-term excuses for moves that were already set up technically.

  • For Bitcoin specifically, Cowen doesn’t see shutdowns as a major driver - BTC follows its own cycle more than Washington politics.

Final Takeaway

Benjamin Cowen’s outlook: don’t overthink shutdowns. They may add short-term volatility, but the real drivers of Bitcoin, gold, and stocks are bigger forces like market cycles and technical levels.

Coin Bureau – Altcoins Set to Explode in Weeks? (01.10.2025 Summary)

Nick from Coin Bureau takes a closer look at altcoin season and why many indicators are misleading. Despite excitement, he argues the coming rally will be very different from past cycles - narrower, more selective, and heavily dependent on a few catalysts.

Key Points from Nick

• Why indicators mislead

  • Popular altcoin season trackers (like Total 2, Total 3) only measure top 100–125 coins.

  • They ignore small caps, which makes many investors feel left behind.

  • Indicators are directionally useful but far from perfect.

• Bitcoin dominance as the real signal

  • Broad altcoin rallies usually happen when Bitcoin dominance (BTCD) drops into the 40–48% range.

  • If history repeats, this could happen as soon as October–November, or early 2026 if the cycle extends.

• Catalysts to watch

  • Spot altcoin ETF approvals (October–January).

  • The Clarity Act, setting regulatory rules for most altcoins.

  • SEC’s potential “innovation exemption,” temporarily legalizing almost all crypto activity in the US.

  • Combined with a bullish macro backdrop (Fed cuts, weaker dollar, strong stocks), these could fuel altcoin demand.

• Why this cycle is different

  • Altcoin season will be big in dollar terms, but not as broad as past ones.

  • Large caps like ETH and SOL will lead, midcaps and small caps will be more selective.

  • Institutional money flows mainly to large caps, while retail doesn’t have the time or focus for deep small-cap research.

Final Takeaway

Nick’s outlook: altcoin season is coming, but don’t expect everything to pump. The gains will be concentrated in a smaller set of large and midcaps, while only the strongest small caps with clear narratives and accessibility will shine.

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