Market Cracking

AILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Pressure Building

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The bleed continues, and the cracks are starting to show. Let’s unpack what’s going on.

Markets wrapped up October with a messy mix of signals. Crypto remains stuck under resistance as sellers keep control. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both struggling to find footing, while the U.S. dollar’s surprising strength adds more pressure on risk assets.

We saw a short-lived relief rally over the weekend on some altcoins such as Virtual, ZK & Aster, but Monday brought the pain right back.

❗️ A key reason: the SOFR–IORB Spread just hit a new high.

It basically means banks are scrambling more for short-term cash. The gap between what they pay to borrow overnight (SOFR) and what they could earn risk-free at the Fed (IORB) is getting bigger.

That’s a sign money is getting tighter in the system, less liquidity moving around. For crypto, that usually isn’t great in the short term, because when cash gets tight, investors tend to pull back from riskier assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In short: funding stress up = tighter liquidity = more pressure on crypto.

📆 This Wednesday will also hold an important event that is keeping the market on edge

On Nov 5, the Supreme Court’s hearing a case about Trump’s tariffs, basically whether he had the power to slap big import taxes without Congress approving it.

🟢 If the Court sides with Trump, it means future presidents could freely use tariffs, which might heat up trade wars again and make markets more nervous. That usually hurts risk assets like crypto since investors get cautious.

🔴 If the Court rules against Trump, it limits that power, could ease global trade worries, and might boost overall market confidence, which tends to be better for crypto.

This is definitely the time to be very defensive in crypto, best case is to survive until things stabilizie,before considering positions.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Survival

Market mood: flat-out fear. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is flashing red again, ETF flows are negative, and traders are retreating to the sidelines.

With BTC failing to reclaim $116k and the gold rotation narrative losing steam, caution dominates. We’re likely in for several rough weeks, possibly well into 2026 before a true recovery trend builds.

💲 If the dollar breaks higher, expect more pain across the board.

We’ve exited all positions and are watching closely as BTC could very likely approach $88–90k zone. Altcoins are expected to take heavier hits if that happens.

Right now, it’s about patience, waiting for Bitcoin to settle, show real strength, and set up cleaner opportunities. Until then, we’re just observing, preserving capital, and keeping risk tight.

Stay alert, stay liquid, and stay safe.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Balancer Exploit Drains $128 Million From DeFi Protocol
Balancer may have suffered a $128 million exploit linked to a faulty smart contract, sending its BAL token down 9%.

Ethereum Stablecoin Volume Hits Record $2.8 Trillion
Ethereum stablecoin transactions reached an all-time high in October as traders rotated into USDC and USDT for yield.

Hong Kong Opens Crypto Exchanges to Global Liquidity
Hong Kong’s regulator will allow licensed exchanges to share global order books, boosting liquidity and investor access.

EU Plans Single Crypto and Stock Market Supervisor
The European Commission is set to propose an SEC-style regulator to unify oversight across crypto and traditional markets.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (03.11.2025 Summary)

In Part 64 of his long-running “Beauty of Mathematics” series, Benjamin Cowen revisits Bitcoin’s fair value regression model. Despite the hype, BTC has mostly stayed near fair value for years, with little sign of euphoria or true overvaluation.

Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points

• Bitcoin remains near fair value – Based on Cowen’s logarithmic regression, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are still trading close to what he defines as fair value. The total crypto market cap is ~$3.6T, while the regression line suggests ~$4.6T.

• No parabolic rallies yet – Unlike 2017 or 2020, this cycle hasn’t seen explosive upside. Each move up is followed by a consolidation, with no major euphoric phases or massive retail interest.

• Market behavior mirrors 2019 – Cowen compares this cycle to 2019, where the market hovered near fair value with small surges that didn’t last. The similarity is striking, especially considering monetary tightening conditions.

• Social interest remains low – On-chain and sentiment data show crypto enthusiasm is subdued, with retail largely absent. Without dramatic rallies or policy shifts, that’s unlikely to change.

• Time is running out – If the four-year cycle structure holds, we only have a few months left for a major move before cycle timing begins to work against further upside.

Final Takeaway
Cowen’s view is consistent: the data-driven fair value model continues to hold, but the clock is ticking. If Bitcoin doesn’t break out soon, this may be the first cycle that finishes without a euphoric blow-off top.

CoinBureau – Arthur Hayes On The BTC Cycle, Dumping HYPE, Ethena & Zcash (ZEC) (03.11.2025 Summary)

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and head of Maelstrom, shares his latest views on the Bitcoin cycle, macro trends, altcoins, and why he's going big on Zcash. In this wide-ranging interview, Hayes explains why he believes the 4-year cycle is over, what’s driving Bitcoin’s next phase, and how narratives are shifting in the altcoin market.

Key Points

• 4-Year Cycle is Dead: Hayes argues that cycles should be based on credit creation, not fixed timeframes. This cycle, he says, is different because liquidity is expanding globally.

• Next Blow-Off Top Is Coming: He predicts a massive rally into 2027 as governments around the world print more money without raising taxes.

• Bitcoin to $999K: Hayes is sticking to his long-term target, expecting Bitcoin to surge as a response to ongoing global deficit spending.

• Gold vs Bitcoin: Sovereign nations are buying gold, not Bitcoin, to protect themselves from asset seizures like what happened with Russia. Retail investors, however, will continue to adopt Bitcoin.

• ETH > SOL: He remains bullish on Ethereum over Solana, seeing ETH as more integrated into Western finance through treasuries and tokenized assets.

• Privacy Coin Revival: Hayes is accumulating Zcash (ZEC), citing improved tech and growing concerns over surveillance. He believes ZEC could hit 10-20% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

• ENA and Hype: He still holds ENA but wants to see more buybacks. He exited Hype before the unlocks and may re-enter if the market reprices its earnings.

• DEX vs CEX: Hayes believes DEX volumes will eventually surpass CEXs, as retail traders prefer flexible and lower-fee options. But he emphasizes that DEXs offload security risks to layer 1s.

• Altcoin Season?: According to Hayes, it’s already here - you just have to understand the narrative. He points to real revenue-sharing projects like Hyperliquid as this cycle’s leaders.

Final Takeaway
Hayes sees this cycle as a liquidity-driven expansion beyond traditional 4-year models. He's positioning for a blow-off top driven by political decisions to print, not tighten. While governments buy gold, crypto natives will fuel altcoin rallies - especially in under-the-radar narratives like privacy coins and perps DEXs.

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