A Brutal Day of Volatility

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Macro Mayhem

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Markets today were anything but quiet. Between sudden drops, fake news, and macro tension, traders were left spinning. Let’s get into it.

🟠 Fake Pumps, Real Pain

Bitcoin kicked off the weekend calmly enough, hovering around $84K. But by early today, everything unraveled. BTC plunged to $74K in just hours, triggering a wave of liquidations across altcoins. The S&P 500 wasn’t spared either, sliding to 4800 - a steep 21% fall from its highs.

The chaos didn’t stop there. A headline claiming Trump was planning to pause tariffs on all countries except China for 90 days sparked a massive, sudden rebound. Bitcoin bounced to $81K, and the S&P surged to 5200. For a moment, it looked like the market was staging a recovery.

😢 Then came the reality check. The tariff pause story was fake. Once that was clear, prices tumbled again. The move highlighted just how fragile market confidence is right now.

There are still unconfirmed reports that the EU is open to negotiating a 0% tariff deal with the US. If those talks turn out to be real, it could offer some short-term relief, but as of now, it’s all just noise.

🌍 Macro View: A New Economic Era?

What’s happening in the market is part of a bigger shift. The US government, under Trump’s new term, is signaling a serious change in direction. Gone are the days of endless stimulus and unchecked spending. This time, the goal is to get America’s finances under control.

• Trump’s team is trying to fix the long-term debt problem by tightening spending and increasing income through tariffs.
  

• They want to rebalance trade, reduce the deficit, and bring fiscal discipline back into the conversation. It’s a bold move, but one that’s already shaking global markets.

This is creating an interesting twist for Bitcoin. A big part of its long-term bull case has been the idea that the US would keep printing money forever. But if the dollar holds stronger under a more disciplined policy, that narrative becomes less clear-cut.

🏦 The Fed: Caught in the Crossfire

Markets are hoping the Federal Reserve will step in with rate cuts to soften the blow. But inflation is still sticky, and Jerome Powell doesn’t look ready to pivot just yet. His rocky relationship with Trump only adds to the complexity.

The Fed is stuck between stubborn inflation and rising recession fears. Meanwhile, the White House is applying pressure in its own way by restructuring global trade and signaling fiscal restraint. For risk assets like Bitcoin, this means higher volatility and less predictability.

🧠 Who’s Buying Bitcoin Now?

At current levels, the question isn’t just where Bitcoin is going, it’s who’s actually buying. Aside from MicroStrategy and GameStop, there’s not a lot of clear institutional demand.

Retail traders are nervous. Traditional investors still prefer bonds and gold. Even though big names like Larry Fink continue to endorse BTC, that confidence hasn’t translated into real inflows.

Bitcoin is stuck between identities. It wants to be a hedge, but it's still trading like a risk-on tech asset. Until sentiment shifts or demand picks up, price action is likely to stay choppy.

⚠️ Final Thoughts: Survive First, Thrive Later

This is not the time for reckless trades or hero plays. Volatility is high, conviction is low, and clarity is in short supply. The smartest move right now is simple - protect your capital, stay patient, and wait for cleaner setups.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Traders Losing Steam

Crypto X is exhausted. The mood today is the worst it’s been in weeks. Traders are angry, confused, and many are walking away from the screen altogether.

• The fear and greed index is still flashing extreme fear, and ETF inflows have vanished - a clear sign that smart money isn’t chasing this market.

Some experienced traders are starting to talk about bottom levels. The $68K zone, which was Bitcoin’s pre-election level, is getting attention. So is $66K, MicroStrategy’s average buy price. Both are logical support areas, but in extreme scenarios, traders are even placing bids at $52K in case of a major liquidation event.

For now, the best hope for a bounce comes from the S&P 500. If 4800 holds, we could see some relief this week. But without clear catalysts or strong inflows, crypto is likely to remain stuck in uncertainty.

📌 Stay cautious. Stay informed. There’s no shame in sitting tight when the waters are this rough.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Hong Kong’s Digital Asset Market Could Surpass Japan in 2025
Hong Kong is on track to overtake Japan in digital asset ETF size, with forecasts topping $700 billion this year.

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Is a Hedge Against Tariffs
Analysts say U.S. isolationism and tariff risks make bitcoin an attractive alternative to holding fiat currencies.

Why Stablecoins Are a Long-Term Bet for VCs
Crypto VCs are piling into stablecoins, betting on scalable infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and trillion-dollar upside.

Address Poisoning Attacks Threaten Bitcoin Users
A rise in lookalike wallet address attacks is putting users at risk, warns security expert Jameson Lopp

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Ivan on Tech – BITCOIN: BLACK MONDAY!!!!!!!!!!! (THIS IS BAD) April 7, 2025, Summary

“Black Monday” Hits Global Markets, Bitcoin Not Spared

Ivan calls it like it is: this is one of the most violent global sell-offs since COVID, with markets crashing across Asia, Europe, and the US. Bitcoin has broken below 75K and its 50-week moving average, a historically critical support zone. Sentiment is crumbling, and macro chaos is spilling into crypto fast.

Global Panic, Central Bank Chess Match Begins

• China’s market down 13.2 percent, largest crash since 1997. Japan hit circuit breakers.

• Trade war escalates. China retaliated with 34 percent tariffs on US goods.

• Stimulus incoming. China ramps up ETF purchases using sovereign wealth fund. This mirrors the COVID crisis response with fast printing and direct intervention.

• Jerome Powell hesitates. Despite calls for emergency rate cuts, the Fed remains on hold for now. Ivan believes a pivot is inevitable.

Trump’s Tariff Chaos Equals Market Meltdown

• Markets are spooked by confusing and inconsistent messaging from the Trump administration.

• Billionaire Bill Ackman and Elon Musk have turned openly critical.

• Accusations of conflict of interest swirl around Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who benefits from crashing stocks via long bond positions.

Bitcoin’s Next Move Depends on the Fed

• BTC is down 30 percent, in line with big tech like Apple and Nvidia.

• ETH, Solana, and major alts are seeing 15 to 20 percent drops.

• Ivan draws comparisons to COVID’s V-shaped bottom. If the Fed prints, BTC rebounds sharply. If not, we enter uncharted territory.

Ivan’s Final Take: Survive and Stack

• Long-term, nothing changes. Bitcoin to 1 million remains the goal.

• Short-term, risk management is key. Ivan notes Bob Loukas sold 30 percent of his BTC as a hedge.

• "The best hope is coordinated global stimulus. If the Fed doesn’t move soon, we’re staring down an economic nuclear winter."

• Reminder: business runs on confidence, and confidence is cracking fast.

Benjamin Cowen – Welcome Home, Ethereum
April 7, 2025 Summary

Ethereum “Goes Home” as Market Crashes, Cowen’s Multi-Year Thesis Plays Out

After months of calling for it, Benjamin Cowen declares victory. Ethereum has finally returned to its fair-value home zone between $1,500 and $1,600. It’s a moment of validation for his long-running ETH/BTC downtrend thesis.

ETH’s Valuation Aligns With Historical Bottoms

• ETH/BTC has been in a clear downtrend since 2021.

• ETH’s USD drop mirrors 2016 and 2019 patterns, falling roughly 40 percent from the breakdown point.

• Risk metrics (0.36 to 0.38) align with historical home levels.

• ETH dominance is back to 2019 levels. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin significantly this cycle.

Macro Markets Are the Key Driver

• Stock market futures point to another leg down, potentially completing a 20 to 30 percent correction.

• Cowen references 1989 to 1990 as analogs, recessions where markets bottomed before unemployment spiked.

• Suggests we may already be near a major low, depending on how deep the macro cracks run.

Caution on QE Hopium

• While Fed QT may slow in May, Cowen warns not to expect instant altseason.

• Points to May 2024 as a similar case. QT slowed, but ETH/BTC kept falling.

• “Don’t assume just because you’re right once, you’ll be right again.”

Will ETH Drop More?

• If the stock market continues to dump, ETH may revisit the lower bounds of the regression band, possibly between 1,200 and 1,400 dollars.

• "ETH might bounce, but if it mirrors 2016, there could be one more leg down first."

Final Take: ETH is Home. What Now?

• ETH reaching fair value is a milestone, not a guarantee of upside.

• Cowen suggests long-term DCA, not aggressive buying.

• "Welcome home, Ethereum. Whether you stay here for days or weeks depends on the S&P 500."

CRYPTO MEMES