The $100K Breakdown

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

The Dip Continues

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! It’s been another wild 24 hours in the market. After a shaky week, Bitcoin finally cracked under pressure.

🔻 Bitcoin sliced straight through the $106k support and plunging to $98k before finding some short-term footing.

The selloff didn’t spare the rest of the market either - altcoins saw heavy losses across the board, though a few such as Pump & XPL managed to recover as BTC bounced.

📉 In just the past five days, nearly $2 billion has flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs, with yesterday alone accounting for over $500 million in outflows. That’s a hefty amount of capital exiting the market and a clear sign that investor confidence remains fragile.

On the bright side, we’ve seen a decent relief rally today, with BTC reclaiming $100k after that sharp drop. Still, technicals suggest we could see a retest of $106k, where strong resistance may trigger another rejection and push prices lower again.

🇺🇸 Meanwhile, the US government shutdown continues to dominate talks. Market participants are watching closely, as any resolution - or further delay - could bring fresh volatility to risk assets, including crypto.

For now, our $88k–$90k target zone remains the key area of interest for a potential bottom. We’re staying cautious, patient, and focused on preserving capital until the charts confirm a real reversal.

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📔 October Overview

Market Highlights

• Bitcoin Volatility: Bitcoin reached a new high before plunging after Trump’s tariff announcement, marking one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history.

• Trump Pardons CZ: The pardon triggered a sharp rally across Binance-linked tokens.

• Fed Decision: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps, in line with expectations.

• Kadena Collapse: Kadena’s team called it quits, causing a steep crash in its token price.

• Elon Musk Moment: Musk’s “Floki is the new CEO of X” tweet briefly boosted the memecoin before it corrected.

Exchange Moves

• Robinhood Listings: Zora, Hype, and Virtual all surged following their listings.

• Coinbase: KTA rallied quickly before giving up its gains.

• Upbit: Dood, Bio, and Order struggled to hold momentum.

Token Shifts

• Launchcoin to Believe: The migration came with a supply increase that led to a sharp decline in value.

• AI16Z to ElizaOS: The rebrand mirrored similar volatility in trading activity.

Narratives of the Month

• BNB Momentum: Binance’s ecosystem saw fresh highs before losing steam.

• Privacy Coins: ZEC led a strong rally, lifting Dash, Zen, Verge, Decred, and Rail along with it.

• x402 & Base Trend: Virtual and Clanker gained traction from the growing x402 narrative, bolstered by Clanker’s integration with Farcaster and its new buyback initiative funded by project revenue.

Exchange Manipulation
Centralized exchanges were active with heavy pump-and-dump behavior, coins like COAI and AIA stood out for clear signs of manipulation.

Other Notables

• SNX: Jumped on the launch of a new DEX before retracing.

• TAO: Continued climbing ahead of its emission halving and treasury catalyst.

• Trump Token: Moved sharply higher toward the end of the month amid DAT rumors.

Overall October was dominated by wild swings, a new Bitcoin high, a massive liquidation event, bursts of Binance and privacy coin strength, and continued manipulation on major exchanges.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Gemini Prepares to Launch Prediction Markets
Gemini is planning to roll out prediction market contracts, joining competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket amid growing industry demand.

Bitwise CIO Says Bitcoin’s “IPO Moment” Has Arrived
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s consolidation marks maturity, predicting institutions will soon raise allocations well above 1%.

White House Defends Trump’s CZ Pardon
The White House said Trump’s pardon of Binance founder CZ followed standard review, calling the case a politically motivated prosecution.

Canada Plans Stablecoin Regulation in 2025 Budget
Canada’s new stablecoin laws will require issuers to hold reserves, manage risks, and align with global frameworks like MiCA and the GENIUS Act.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Cliff Dwellers (05.11.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen returns with a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market position and the possibility that the cycle top may already be in. He draws comparisons to 2019, overlays macro trends like quantitative tightening, and reinforces his long-standing thesis: Bitcoin dominance rises when monetary policy tightens. With December’s key shifts ahead, Cowen believes the next few weeks could define the rest of the cycle.

Key Points:

• Cycle Top Could Be In – Based on ROI from the market low and the timing relative to past cycles, October may have marked the top. Cowen now gives it a 50/50 chance.

• 2026 = Bear Market? – Just like 2014, 2018, and 2022, Cowen expects the next midterm year to be a bear market, with Bitcoin likely bottoming around October 2026.

• Altcoins Still Bleeding – Altcoin-Bitcoin pairs continue to drop. He maintains his long-term target that these ratios fall to 0.25 before any altseason can happen.

• Bitcoin Dominance to Peak in December – Cowen strongly believes dominance could top in December, just like in 2019 when QT ended. He thinks the rally in dominance has been driven more by macro than hype or ETFs.

• No Euphoria, No Retail – Cowen notes the lack of euphoria this cycle. Bitcoin has posted higher highs, but momentum and retail interest have been weak compared to past cycles.

• Death Cross Incoming – A weekly death cross is likely soon. Cowen suggests it might align with the end of the government shutdown or the QT shift, which could trigger a bounce - but likely led only by Bitcoin.

• Dominance Is Key – Whether Bitcoin rises or stalls, he believes Bitcoin dominance will climb. Alts will likely continue bleeding against BTC until conditions reverse in 2026.

Final Takeaway:
Cowen isn’t calling the top outright, but he’s treating this as a possible topping process. If another rally happens, it’ll be Bitcoin-led. If not, we’re entering a long grind into a potential 2026 bottom. Either way, Bitcoin dominance remains the clearest signal - and he expects it to peak around the time QT ends in December.

Ivan On Tech – BULLS HAVE A CHANCE HERE! (05.11.2025 Summary)

Ivan says it’s not game over for the bulls just yet. Despite Bitcoin breaking below $100K and dipping under its 50-week moving average intraday, he urges caution against flipping fully bearish. A recovery is still possible - but the weekly close must confirm it.

Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points:

• Don't panic yet – Bitcoin wicked below the 50-week moving average but hasn’t closed below it. A weekly close above $102K keeps bulls in the game.

• Daily chart looks bad – Ivan bluntly calls it “kaka, not chocolata.” After closing below the October 10 liquidation wick, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.

• Big wicks = turning points – Historically, sharp downside wicks often precede major rallies - but only if bulls step in with follow-through.

• Be like water – Ivan emphasizes flexible positioning. His team de-risked between $120K and $110K and is ready to re-risk or hedge depending on how the weekly candle closes.

• ETF outflows raise red flags – Recent daily outflows hit a record $566M. Treasury companies are also starting to sell BTC, showing waning institutional appetite.

• MicroStrategy can't help for now – With its stock price down over 50%, MicroStrategy is unlikely to raise capital to buy more BTC like it did in past cycles.

• Retail still missing – Ivan notes that almost no new users are entering the market this cycle. Most activity is just money rotating among old players.

Final Takeaway:
Ivan urges balance. Yes, Bitcoin’s short-term trend is bearish, but the weekly close will determine if the bulls have one more push left. Don’t go all in or all out - stay adaptable and react to what the market actually does, not just what you fear.

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