Choppy Conditions

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

The Dip Continues

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Let’s dive into what’s happening across the market today.

🪓 The crypto price action remains extremely choppy. Bitcoin has been rejected from the 94k resistance level and is now slowly grinding downwards. Nothing in today’s data shifted the picture much either. PCE came in exactly as forecasted, so there were no major surprises for traders to react to.

🤔 What we expect in terms of price action over the next few days is a dip toward 86k followed by another bounce into the 93k to 96k region. From there, the setup looks like it leads to another rejection and a breakdown that continues the broader downtrend. This is the scenario that currently makes the most sense to us.

We also have the Fed meeting coming up in five days, which could easily throw some curve balls, so that definitely needs to be watched closely.

🔻 On top of that, ETF flows turned negative again. BTC saw close to 200m in outflows yesterday and ETH posted around 40m. The downtrend across crypto has clearly not been reversed, so be cautious with large longs until the structure improves.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Two Camps, No Consensus

Right now the market is split into two camps.

🐻 One believes the bear market has already started. 

The size of this correction, the timing with the four year cycle, and the massive liquidation wicks from October 10 still lingering on most alts all support that perspective.

🐂 The other camp argues this is just a deeper correction within a still bullish structure. 

As long as Bitcoin stays above 74k, it is technically still in bullish territory. Combined with the macro developments we highlighted in yesterday’s newsletter, there is a real chance the uptrend continues into 2026.

With the current conditions, we’re open to both ideas. 

A close above 100k puts us solidly back in team bull. A close below 74k gives bears full control. Until one of those levels breaks, the market remains stuck in chop and uncertainty.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

JPMorgan links bitcoin’s next move to Strategy’s stability
JPMorgan says bitcoin’s near term direction depends on Strategy keeping its valuation ratio above 1 and avoiding forced BTC sales.

First Sui based ETF launches on Nasdaq
21Shares debuts the first Sui ETF, a 2x leveraged product, expanding the surge of new crypto ETFs entering U.S. markets.

TON treasury files 420.69 million dollar shelf registration
AlphaTON seeks over 420 million dollars to expand its TON token holdings, AI compute infrastructure, and Telegram ecosystem investments.

Base rolls out new bridge to Solana
Coinbase’s Base network now supports Solana assets through a Chainlink powered bridge, enabling two way movement and cross chain liquidity.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: A Different Kind of Bear Market? (05.12.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen explores whether Bitcoin is entering a bear market that breaks the usual four-year cycle mold. Instead of a euphoric peak like in 2017 or 2021, Cowen believes the current cycle resembles 2019 - marked by apathy, not hype. That subtle shift, he argues, could shape an entirely different market path through 2026.

Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points

• A Top Without Euphoria – Cowen points out that retail interest is low, with no clear signs of mania. This aligns with how 2019 played out, when Bitcoin peaked quietly without an altseason or social frenzy.

• Q4 Peak Timing Holds – Every past cycle has topped in Q4 of the post-halving year. Cowen says this timing is still intact, even if the price didn’t skyrocket as much as some hoped.

• Bear Market Already Underway? – Indicators like breaking below the 50-week moving average and key support suggest the bear market may have already started in October.

• Slow Bleed Scenario – Instead of a sharp crash, Cowen outlines a drawn-out decline into mid-2026, potentially followed by a recovery if looser monetary policy returns.

• Altcoins Still Weak – Without retail interest and with Bitcoin dominance likely to climb further, Cowen doesn’t expect a true altseason anytime soon.

Final Takeaway
This might not be a typical bear market, but Cowen believes it’s still a bear. Without retail hype or institutional tailwinds, Bitcoin could drift lower for months before bottoming in mid-2026.

CoinBureau – What Ethereum's New Upgrade Means For ETH's Price (05.12.2025 Summary)

Coin Bureau’s Guy breaks down Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, why it’s a game-changer for the network, and how it may quietly set the stage for a major ETH price reversal in 2026. While retail has been distracted by Bitcoin and Solana, institutions are showing renewed interest, just as Ethereum’s tech fundamentals take a major leap forward.

Key Points

• Fusaka Brings Real Scaling – The Fusaka upgrade quietly went live on December 3 and introduced “PeerDAS” (Peer Data Availability Sampling), which slashes node data requirements by 87.5%. This enables Ethereum to better handle data from Layer 2s, dramatically boosting throughput without clogging the main chain.

• L2 Fees Dropping Fast – With blob space expanding in phases (from 3 to up to 21 blobs per block), Layer 2 fees could drop by 40–95%. Ethereum could finally offer sub-cent transaction costs across L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism.

• Inflation Control via EIP-7518 – Lower gas fees might reduce ETH burns, but Fusaka includes a mechanism that sets a floor price for blob data, ensuring Ethereum still captures value from growing L2 activity.

• Institutional Interest Heating Up – Ethereum futures volume flipped Bitcoin on the CME for the first time in early December. This suggests major funds are now betting on ETH, not just BTC. Whale accumulation also picked up in November, with $1.3B in ETH scooped up.

• Staking ETFs Are the Next Catalyst – After disappointing spot ETF launches, the next big thing could be staking ETFs. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale are all working on filings. If approved, these could make ETH a productive “digital bond” for institutions.

• ETH vs. SOL Narrative – While Solana outperforms in speed and UX, Ethereum still dominates in TVL and institutional preference. BlackRock and Visa both chose Ethereum for asset tokenization and settlements.

Final Takeaway
Ethereum’s price has lagged, but the fundamentals are accelerating. Fusaka significantly boosts scalability, institutional interest is spiking, and staking ETFs could drive serious capital inflows. ETH may be setting up for a stealth comeback in 2026, even if retail hasn’t noticed yet.

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