Crypto Liquidity Crunch

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Liquidity Fades?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! October gave us one of the sharpest resets in recent crypto history, so let’s do a recap.

BTC closed October red for the first time in six years, setting the stage for one of the toughest months in crypto. After months of slowing inflows and internal rotation, the market finally hit a wall – and the numbers tell the story clearly.

🔻 The crypto market lost roughly $1 trillion in value, a 25% drawdown from its previous record high.

Over $45B in leveraged positions were wiped out, while DAT investors lost $10B+ as many funds’ mNAVs fell below 1, meaning portfolios are now worth less than initial capital. Even Strategy’s DAT, seen as relatively stable, slipped close to 1.

🔻 ETF flows also turned red, with the Coinbase premium showing heavy sell pressure. Public crypto-linked equities followed suit – MicroStrategy fell 32%, Circle dropped 30%, Coinbase lost 20%, and Galaxy Digital slid 35%.

Adding to the pressure, October recorded the most U.S. layoffs since 2003 and saw the longest government shutdown in American history.

Taken together, these numbers paint a clear picture: crypto remains in consolidation, not expansion. Liquidity is tight, inflows are slowing, and capital is circulating within the ecosystem instead of growing it.

Until meaningful liquidity returns, crypto is likely to stay under pressure, with our near-term Bitcoin target range at $88K–$90K. 🎯 

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Wintermure’s Latest Take on Crypto Liquidity

Wintermute – one of the largest global crypto market makers and liquidity providers – has released a new report highlighting a clear theme: liquidity drives every crypto cycle, and that flow has slowed.

Crypto is now in a self-funded phase – capital isn’t entering from outside but circulating within. The main inflow channels – stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries (DATs) – have all lost momentum in recent months.

Quick breakdown:

• Stablecoins gauge crypto-native risk appetite.

• DATs reflect institutional yield demand.

• ETFs capture traditional finance exposure to BTC and ETH.

Earlier this year, these channels expanded fast – DATs and ETFs rose from about $40B to $270B, and stablecoins nearly doubled from $140B to $290B. But growth has since flattened, showing that new liquidity isn’t entering the system.

Global liquidity (M2) remains strong, but high SOFR rates keep cash in T-bills and equities instead of crypto. That leaves digital assets in an internally rotating market – rallies fade quickly, breadth narrows, and volatility comes more from liquidations than new buying.

Wintermute’s bottom line: until stablecoin issuance, ETF inflows, or DAT creation picks up again, crypto stays in a self-funded phase. When those inflows return, it will signal that macro liquidity is flowing back into digital assets.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $170,000
JPMorgan analysts see Bitcoin climbing to $170K within a year as leverage resets and volatility versus gold improves.

Mastercard, Ripple, and Gemini Test XRPL Card Settlements
Mastercard is partnering with Ripple and Gemini to pilot RLUSD stablecoin settlements for card transactions on the XRP Ledger.

Bernstein: Prediction Markets Becoming Info Hubs
Analysts say platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are evolving into global information markets spanning politics, sports, and finance.

Solana and Fireblocks Form Cross-Chain Payments Alliance
Solana, Fireblocks, and others launched the Blockchain Payments Consortium to standardize global stablecoin payment frameworks.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Coin Bureau – Bitcoin Falls Below 100k - Buy The Dip Or Sell The Bounce? (06.11.2025 Summary)

Guy from Coin Bureau breaks down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $100K, arguing this crash may be painful but not fatal. Despite fear taking over retail sentiment, he sees reasons for cautious optimism if macro conditions shift.

Guy’s Outlook – Key Points:

• $1B wiped out in liquidations - Bitcoin fell over 20% from its October all-time high, triggering one of the largest leverage wipeouts this year.

• Who's selling? - Institutions took profits, long-term holders offloaded BTC via ETFs, miners cashed out, corporate treasuries like Seckons sold to cover debt, and leverage traders got wiped out.

• Why is crypto alone crashing? - AI stocks are attracting capital, retail interest in crypto is low, and macro headwinds like a strong dollar continue to pressure Bitcoin.

• Bear market warning signs - BTC broke its 200-day EMA, and on-chain metrics like MVRV-Z score signal weak price momentum. Key support sits between $92K-$95K.

• But not all hope is lost - Guy calls this a “controlled detonation,” purging weak hands. The absence of contagion (unlike Terra or FTX) is a bullish signal.

• Two catalysts ahead - The Fed is ending QT and cutting rates. Once the US government shutdown ends, ETF approvals (like Solana and XRP) could flood the market with new capital.

• Altcoins not dead, just delayed - Bitcoin dominance is up, altcoins are bleeding, but historical patterns suggest quality alts may recover once BTC stabilizes.

Final Takeaway:
Guy says this brutal correction may actually strengthen the market. The dream of a bullish 2025 isn't dead - but it’s on life support. Keep your eyes on December’s Fed meeting and the ETF unlocks that could revive momentum.

1000x Podcast – Massive Selloff, Mamdani Wins, & Jonah Ditches His CryptoPunk (06.11.2025 Summary)

Max Bronstein joined the 1000x Podcast with a clear but cautious stance on the crypto market. While he believes the long-term setup for crypto is intact, he’s concerned about short-term breakdowns, distribution patterns, and altcoin fragility. His trading system just flipped bullish, but Max remains cautious due to structural weakness and dried-up demand from major players like DATs.

Max’s Outlook – Key Points:

• Short-term bounce, but long-term worries remain – Max’s system turned bullish after the recent dip, but he warns many charts are broken and distribution above $120K is a red flag.

• OG whales are selling – Large long-term holders have been visibly cashing out, with even Galaxy and other whales offloading BTC into institutional demand.

• DATs may have propped up the market – Max argues that debt-backed asset trusts (DATs) like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet were major buyers earlier this year, but they’ve largely run out of fundraising power, drying up demand.

• ETH and Solana structurally weak – ETH lacks clear value accrual, and Solana, while strong with retail and younger users, is losing institutional momentum to Base and custom L2s.

• Hyperliquid stands out – Max is bullish on Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, calling it one of the few investable assets with a working product, no VC cap table, and a buy-and-burn model that ties usage to price.

• Cautious on altcoin DATs – Most are small and illiquid, and Max sees risk in chasing tokens with weak fundamentals and little ongoing demand.

Final Takeaway:
Max is long-term bullish and sees the big-picture trends like institutional rails and AI-driven asset inflation as intact. But in the short term, he’s cautious and defensive, especially around altcoins and structurally broken charts. For now, his system says "buy," but conviction is low.

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