Cautious Relief

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Fragile Optimism

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market remains in a tricky spot so let’s see what potentially awaits.

There’s not much excitement in the altcoin world right now as the market still feels heavy. We’re seeing brief relief rallies like today, but for most coins, price action remains limited and choppy.

⚠️ Even major treasury players are showing caution. Sharplink Gaming, which holds close to $3B in ETH, recently redeemed $17.52M worth of ETH and deposited 4,364 $14.47M into OKX. Traders speculate this could signal the start of a selling phase, as Sharplink’s mNAV currently sits around 0.85.

mNav measures the market value of a fund’s holdings compared to its reported value - when it’s below 1, it suggests the assets are worth less than expected, often leading to rebalancing or selling.

💲 Despite this, the dollar (DXY) did pull back slightly but remains bullish, keeping markets in a risk-off environment. Traders remain cautious about inflation, interest rates, and the pace of potential Fed cuts. Until that shifts, it will be tough for crypto to gain real momentum.

Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance has fallen over the past three days, meaning altcoins are temporarily outperforming BTC. Still, this likely won’t last long - BTC dominance is nearing key support and could reverse soon, possibly next week, putting pressure back on alts.

Overall, the market is showing some short-term relief, especially among altcoins, as BTC retested $99K and held, forming a potential double bottom. But we’re not fully convinced it will continue to hold. A green weekend is possible, as we’ve seen recently, though the broader trend still points toward a downside continuation once that relief fades.

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Legacy Coins Showing Strength

With the broader market struggling, older “legacy” coins like ZEC, DASH, ICP, AR, and FIL have recently gone on sharp rallies.

These sudden pumps in older assets often appear near the end stages of a bull cycle, so many traders are watching closely to see if this marks a local or even macro top.

⚠️ ZEC’s recent pump, for example, doesn’t look natural.

• It’s likely caused by toxic order flow, where big or informed traders push the price up to trigger short liquidations. When those shorts get closed automatically, it forces extra buying and sends the price even higher.

During this, market makers (who normally provide liquidity) often pull back their orders or widen the price gap between buys and sells to avoid getting caught in the move. That makes the market thinner and each trade moves the price more, exaggerating the spike.

So the rally looks strong, but it’s mostly a liquidity squeeze, driven by manipulation and short-term trading activity, not real demand or fundamental growth for ZEC.

This same pattern is likely true for many of the other legacy coins pumping right now, so stay cautious and don’t FOMO in, these kinds of moves can fade as quickly as they appear.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Tether Adds $97 Million in Bitcoin to Reserves
Tether transferred 961 BTC worth $97M from Bitfinex to its reserve wallet, bringing total holdings to over 87,000 BTC.

Japan’s Regulator Backs Major Bank Stablecoin Pilot
Japan’s FSA supports a joint stablecoin project by Mizuho, MUFG, and SMBC under its new Payment Innovation Project.

Kazakhstan to Launch $1 Billion Crypto Reserve Fund
Kazakhstan will create a $1B crypto reserve fund using seized assets and mining proceeds, investing in ETFs and crypto firms.

DraftKings Sees Prediction Markets Boosting U.S. Betting
DraftKings CEO says prediction markets could expand access to new states and drive growth in legal online sports betting.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

CoinBureau – CoinGecko 2025 Q3 Report: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana & Market Outlook (07.11.2025 Summary)

Lewis from Coin Bureau walks through CoinGecko’s Q3 2025 crypto industry report and offers some cautious optimism. While the market took a heavy hit in early October, long-term indicators suggest altcoin momentum is growing. Institutional interest is shifting, NFT activity is rebounding, and macro conditions could provide a supportive backdrop into Q4.

Lewis’ Outlook – Key Points:

• Altcoin rotation underway – Despite recent liquidations, Bitcoin dominance is still trending down, indicating capital is slowly rotating into altcoins.

• Spot Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin ETFs – Inflows into ETH spot ETFs hit record highs in Q3, showing rising institutional interest in ETH over BTC.

• EVM chains are gaining traction – Ethereum activity is up, and chains like Base are exploding with new token launches, especially through platforms like Zora.

• NFTs and DeFi show new signs of life – NFT trading volumes rebounded strongly in Q3, while DeFi’s market cap surged thanks to new governance tokens and stablecoin protocols.

• DATs buying aggressively – Digital asset treasury companies spent over $22B in Q3 alone, mostly on altcoins, adding more long-term confidence to the alt narrative.

• Macro catalysts ahead – A potential end to QT, legal clarity from the Clarity Act, and SEC approval of spot altcoin ETFs could all push the market higher.

Final Takeaway:
Lewis sees Q3 as a mixed bag but ultimately leans bullish heading into Q4. While liquidations and fear shook the market, underlying data shows strong institutional and ecosystem growth. Altcoins, especially ETH and those tied to EVM chains, may be poised to benefit the most if macro and regulatory tailwinds align.

Ivan On Tech – LAST WARNING!! (07.11.2025 Summary)

Ivan issues a high-alert warning for Bitcoin bulls, emphasizing the significance of the 50-week moving average and a potential breakdown toward $96K. Meanwhile, Zcash stands out with explosive gains, while most altcoins remain bearish. Ivan argues the market is entering a risk-off phase but insists that traders should follow a strategy, not fear.

Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points:

• Critical BTC Level Ahead – Bitcoin is teetering just below the 50-week moving average. If it closes below $96K, Ivan sees it as a major bearish signal and urges caution.

• Zcash in Full Bull Mode – Zcash is the only altcoin showing clear strength. Ivan highlights it has gone “absolutely berserk,” nearing $1K, and recommends following mechanical entry/exit strategies.

• Altcoins Weak and Losing Relevance – Most Layer 2 tokens and major altcoins like Solana and Ethereum are in confirmed downtrends. Ivan warns that unless they regain dominance metrics and technical levels, they remain untradeable.

• Smart Money Turning Bearish – Data from Hyperliquid shows that top-performing traders ("money printers") are now short or defensive, while retail is still overly bullish.

• Cycle Still Intact – Despite short-term weakness, Ivan defends the four-year cycle model, noting that Bitcoin’s recent decline mirrors past cycle behavior almost exactly.

• Macro and ETF Context – BlackRock’s ETF flows show mixed sentiment. Ivan believes the ETF wave is ultimately bullish but short-term market reactions are still dictated by fear and greed.

Final Takeaway:
Ivan remains cautious but not panicked. He believes Bitcoin could recover, but if price closes below $96K, a deeper correction becomes more likely. Traders should stay flexible, avoid emotional decisions, and follow defined systems to manage risk. In the long term, he’s still confident Bitcoin will reach $1M, but warns that altcoins must now prove their value against rising competition from stocks and new tech narratives.

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