Market on Edge

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Crunch Time for Crypto

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Here is a fresh look at the state of the market as we head into a pivotal week.

The crypto market remains stuck in a highly choppy zone. Over the weekend and into today we have seen sharp swings in both directions, which keeps short term trading challenging and unreliable.

Even within this turbulence, Bitcoin has held a short term uptrend ever since November 21st on the 4 hour chart. Higher lows continue to form and price is grinding upward. The key level to watch is 83.7k. If BTC can stay above it, the structure supports further upside. If it slips below, a retest of the 75k region becomes a real possibility.

‼️ A Crucial Week Ahead

Several macro catalysts line up this week and could reshape the market tone entirely.

• Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday and markets are treating a 25bp cut as nearly certain.

• The bigger spark for risk assets would be any hint of QE. Even slight language in that direction could trigger strong upside.

• Legacy markets already look structurally bullish.

• DXY continues to weaken and looks close to breaking down, which typically supports crypto strength.

Ethereum is also building an interesting setup. It is forming a potential inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart. If that pattern completes and aligns with supportive macro outcomes this week, it could energize a broader altcoin rally.

Crypto is at a make or break moment, so this week demands attention.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Altcoin Interest

Altcoins may be setting up for a comeback if macro events tilt risk-on. Open interest has been falling since October 10 and is now down to 65 billion compared to a 114 billion peak. These levels are similar to where the market stood in February 2025, which suggests room for expansion if sentiment turns.

What is the best approach here?

Ethereum appears to have the strongest structure for a longer term trade. If momentum improves, its ecosystem names like AAVE and Uniswap could also benefit. These are the types of setups we would favor if sentiment begins to reverse.

⚠️ For now conditions remain fragile. BTC still risks a move toward 75k before any sustained relief arrives.

More updates to come as this important week unfolds.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Coinbase Reopens App in India After Two-Year Hiatus
Coinbase is onboarding Indian users again with crypto-to-crypto trading only, preparing for a 2026 fiat on-ramp as it rebuilds regulatory compliance and market presence.

Argentina Considers Allowing Banks to Offer Crypto Services
Argentina may let domestic banks offer crypto services as early as April 2026, a move that could drive mass adoption across one of Latin America’s most active markets.

Bittensor’s First Halving Expected to Boost TAO, Grayscale Says
Bittensor’s first halving cuts emissions in half next week, with Grayscale saying reduced supply and rising institutional interest could support TAO price growth.

Robinhood Eyes Indonesia as Crypto Adoption Accelerates
Robinhood is acquiring licensed Indonesian firms to enter one of Asia’s fastest-growing crypto markets as new regulations reshape trading, taxation, and digital finance oversight.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin On-Chain Risk (08.12.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen revisits Bitcoin’s on-chain risk metric to argue that we’re experiencing a “non-euphoric” cycle top - more like 2019 than the classic blow-off tops of 2017 or 2021. This cycle may lack hype, but it still brings potential, especially for patient investors.

Key Points

• No Hype, No Peak – Cowen explains that Bitcoin hasn’t hit the euphoric levels typically seen at cycle tops. Instead, the on-chain risk indicator only reached moderate levels (0.7–0.8), similar to the 2019 peak, which also lacked retail mania.

• Time-Based Capitulation – Rather than panic-selling, Cowen sees signs of slow capitulation from holders frustrated by Bitcoin’s stagnant price. In fact, BTC today is slightly lower than it was a year ago, echoing the 2019 pattern of apathy.

• QT Is the Macro Match – The comparison deepens when looking at macro conditions. In both 2019 and 2025, Bitcoin peaked just before the end of Federal Reserve tightening. Cowen believes that once QT ends in December, a shift in market tone may follow.

• Dominance Still Rising – Bitcoin dominance rose during the 2019 top and is doing so again now. Cowen notes that staying in BTC until QT ends might be the best risk-adjusted play, as altcoins tend to lag in such environments.

• Patience Pays Off – Cowen believes Bitcoin could see relief rallies in the short term, but further downside is likely into 2026. The on-chain risk metric might eventually drop to the 0.0–0.1 band - historically one of the best buying zones.

Final Takeaway
Cowen’s outlook is grounded and cautious. He doesn’t expect fireworks anytime soon, but sees parallels to 2019 that suggest a slow, grinding bear phase. For disciplined investors, this quiet period may offer some of the best accumulation opportunities.

CoinBureau – New Spot Crypto ETFS Could PUMP These Altcoins!! (08.12.2025 Summary)

Coin Bureau’s Guy breaks down the recent launch of five spot altcoin ETFs in the US, analyzing what they mean for institutional interest and potential altcoin outperformance in the next rally. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen heavy outflows, these new altcoin products have remained surprisingly resilient - and that could matter more than people think.

Key Points

• XRP Leads with Strong Demand – Ripple’s XRP saw one of the strongest spot ETF launches ever. The Canary Capital ETF recorded $250M in first-day inflows. Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton followed with additional XRP ETF products. Despite XRP’s price dropping with the broader market, institutional inflows signal strong interest when conditions turn.

• Solana Gathers Steam – Solana’s multiple ETFs (from Rex Osprey, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck) collected ~$370M in November alone. The price didn’t surge immediately, but ETFs appear to have helped SOL find a local bottom. Some versions even include staking, making them more attractive to yield-hunting investors.

• Dogecoin: Real ETF or Meme Hype? – Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF underperformed with just $1.4M in trading volume, likely due to confusion with a prior non-spot Doge ETF from Rex Osprey that launched in September and saw $54M in activity. Still, the hype proved there’s demand for memecoin exposure among traditional investors.

• Litecoin Lags Behind – Litecoin’s single ETF (from Canary Capital) barely made a splash with less than $1M on launch day and just $30M in cumulative trading volume. It also saw five straight days with zero inflows, indicating weak institutional appetite so far.

• Hedera Surprises with Hashgraph Hype – Unlike the others, Hedera doesn’t run on a blockchain, but a DAG-based system called hashgraph. Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF pulled in $8M on day one and has crossed $70M in inflows. While price impact has been minimal, momentum is building.

• More ETFs Are Coming – Guy points out that other altcoins like Avalanche, Polkadot, Chainlink, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, and even Shiba Inu have pending ETF applications. Their launches could fuel broader market excitement if capital follows.

Final Takeaway
Altcoin spot ETFs may be in their early days, but inflow strength shows institutions are interested - even when retail attention is lacking. As more ETFs roll out and the market rebounds, these products could quietly kick off the next altcoin cycle.

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