The Big Day

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

FOMC DECISION

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! It’s an important day for crypto so let’s dive right in!

Today is the big FOMC day and the crypto market is getting shaky. In just a few short hours, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking again and likely sets the tone for the rest of the December.

The current conditions are shaky.

• The Volatility Index (VIX) has been rising, which means equity markets expect more volatility and stress.

• We also have the US 10-YEAR Yield rising close to 4.2%, its highest level in three months

When the VIX goes up and the US 10-year yield rises, markets are getting more cautious. Investors move toward safer assets. That usually hurts crypto because it is seen as risky and demand drops.

For now, it's all in the hands of Powell and what he projects for the future. The focus is not on the rate cut itself as it’s mostly priced in already but the forward guidance.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Market Sentiment

The big sentiment today is leaning towards a hawkish cut. This is when the central bank lowers rates but still signals they want to keep policy pretty tight overall.

Traders are getting less convinced that genuine easing will stretch deep into 2026.

Why ❓️ 

Inflation is still sticky, Headline PCE hit 2.8% in September, nearly a full point above FED’s target. Plus, policymakers are split: the Fed's September projections only pointed to one cut in 2026, but markets are still pricing in about two next year.

Adding to the messy picture is the looming new Fed Chair when Powell's term is up in May. That raises policy independence questions and is adding pressure to bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield is already up above 4.8%, its highest since early September.

🐻 If we do get that hawkish cut, it may limit crypto's potential for growth since the expected liquidity injection gets delayed. However, if they signal a genuine easing cycle, we could see the markets really go for it. 🐂 

Currently, though, we're taking a step back and are not actively trading the FOMC event. We’re awaiting more clear and solid setups. Preserve capital first, and wait for those better setups to present themselves.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Silk Road Wallets Move $3 Million in Dormant Bitcoin After a Decade 
Hundreds of crypto wallets linked to the defunct Silk Road marketplace made their first moves in over ten years, transferring $3.14 million in Bitcoin following the pardon of founder Ross Ulbricht.

Stripe and Paradigm's Payments Blockchain Tempo Launches Public Testnet Tempo, a $5 billion blockchain incubated by Stripe and Paradigm, launched its public testnet to provide instant, low-fee stablecoin payments, with partners including Mastercard and UBS.

Bitwise's Flagship Crypto Index Fund Uplisted to NYSE Arca as ETP 
The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) moved to the NYSE Arca, transitioning to an ETP structure to give traditional investors easier access to the diversified top 10 crypto assets.

SpaceX Moves $95 Million in Bitcoin Amid Plans for Record $1.5 Trillion IPO SpaceX transferred 1,021 BTC ($94.5 million) as it prepares for a monumental IPO in 2026, aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, which could be the largest public listing ever.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Pre-FOMC (10.12.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen analyzes the Bitcoin market and macroeconomic factors leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, adopting a cautious and fact-based approach. He notes that while the market is pricing in a high probability of an interest rate cut, the combination of global central bank actions and the likely restrictive forward guidance from the Fed Chair does not currently support the aggressive, full-blown altcoin season many investors hope for.

Key Discussion Points

• Expected Fed Rate Cut: The market is pricing in an almost 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut to 3.75%. Despite this expectation, Cowen notes that the Fed rarely surprises the market and is likely to follow through.

• Dual-Action Risk: The expected Fed cut coincides with a likely rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which has about a 75% probability. This dual action (Fed cutting, BOJ raising) previously led to "capitulation lows" in the market, such as in July 2024.

• Restrictive Policy Remains: Even with a 25 basis point cut, the Fed funds rate (3.75%) is still technically above the estimated "neutral rate," which Cowen approximates using the 2-year Treasury yield (currently around 3.6%). This suggests that monetary policy remains restrictive and is not yet loose enough to fuel a massive economic expansion.

• Forward Guidance is Key: The most important factor from the meeting will be the Federal Reserve's guidance on future cuts, not the immediate action. Cowen believes Chair Powell is likely to push back on pricing in many more aggressive cuts, as he will want to avoid being remembered as the chair who allowed inflation to return before his potential replacement in May 2026.

• Alt Season Unlikely: The current restrictive monetary policy and a downtrend in "social interest" (a key indicator for past alt seasons) do not support the idea of a massive altcoin season. While some individual altcoins may still rally to new highs, investors should not expect a widespread altcoin boom.

The Takeaway

Investors should "trade the market that you have, not the market that you want". The current environment, defined by restrictive monetary policy and cautious forward guidance from the Fed does not support the aggressive altcoin rally many are anticipating. Instead of hoping for a full-blown bull market, investors should acknowledge the current cycle realities.

CoinBureau – 2026 Will Be A BAD YEAR For The Crypto Market!! (10.12.2025 Summary)

The CoinBureau host, Guy, details the severe regulatory changes coming to the crypto market in 2026, which he argues will fundamentally change how users interact with centralized platforms. The overall tone is one of caution and urgency, warning that governments around the world are coordinating through global frameworks to end anonymity and ensure compliance ahead of international data swaps.

Key Discussion Points

• Global Tax Reporting Standard (CARF): The main driver is the OECD’s Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), which mandates what customer and transaction data crypto platforms must collect. The year 2026 is set to be the first big data capture year for most major jurisdictions, with cross-border information swaps beginning in 2027.

• UK HMRC Crackdown: Beginning January 1, 2026, UK crypto exchanges and brokers must collect and report detailed transaction and personal identity data (including National Insurance numbers) for all UK tax residents to His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC).

• EU Surveillance Stacks: The European Union is implementing a three-pronged approach. This includes the implementation of the Travel Rule for crypto transfers, the DAC8 framework for tax reporting starting on January 1, 2026, and the rollout of an EU Digital Identity Wallet for KYC by the end of 2026.

• US Banking and Tax Pressure: In the US, the banking system continues to "debank" crypto businesses and users, often referred to as "Operation Chokepoint 2.0". Separately, for all trades made in 2025, brokers and exchanges will begin reporting customer digital asset sales to the IRS in early 2026. The next step is adding the cost basis, which will allow the IRS to automatically calculate profit/loss.

• Impact on Exchanges and Liquidity: Centralized exchanges (CEXes) may offer better custody standards and fewer "rugpulls", but the increased monitoring will likely push liquidity toward self-custody and decentralized exchanges (DEXes). This provides a massive opportunity for DEXes to take market share, potentially favoring tokens linked to these on-chain trading venues.

• Privacy Coin Challenges: While privacy coins (like Monero and Zcash) are appealing due to increased surveillance, they are becoming "radioactive" to regulated platforms. This is leading to delistings on major CEXes, which creates liquidity and exit risk for users.

The Takeaway

The crypto market is segmenting into two distinct lanes: a regulated, friction-heavy lane that is liquid and institution-friendly, and a smaller, more technical lane that holds the original cypherpunk spirit and greater potential for large gains. The critical action for all crypto users is to clean up their personal tax reporting and prepare for a future where every centralized transaction is linked to a digital identity and reported to tax authorities.

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