The Market Awaits Its Trigger

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Tariffs, Talks, and Tipping Points

👋 Happy Friday, Crypto Enthusiasts! Markets are tense. BTC’s holding. Let’s explore!

🇨🇳 Market Moves: Crypto Caught in the Crossfire

Tariff tensions just turned up another notch - China hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, adding more fuel to the already fragile global outlook. Strangely enough, markets are starting to get desensitized to the noise, and BTC has managed to grind back above $80K.

Now, the big question is whether this geopolitical poker game will end in chaos or compromise.

🇺🇸 U.S. has officially requested a call between President Trump and President Xi. Optimists hope this leads to tariff relief, but in reality, no one knows how this will play out. The wrong soundbite could spark a sharp risk-off move.

At the same time, geopolitical risks are stacking:

• 🇷🇺 Russia–Ukraine war dragging on

• 🇮🇱 Israel–Iran tensions intensifying

• 🇨🇳 China–Taiwan situation quietly escalating

These aren't just background noise - they’re potential events that could shock global markets fast.

🟢 But it’s not all bad news...

Despite the fear, inflation appears to be slowing, and crypto bulls are getting some tailwinds:

• 📉 The latest CPI & PPI print came in soft, giving hope that inflation pressure is easing.
  

• 🏛️ Paul Atkins sworn in as the new SEC Chair, a longtime crypto advocate, stirring hopes for a more pro-innovation regulatory stance.
  

• 🏦 Fed rate cut still on the table for May - if paired with a tariff pause or China deal, we could see a monster rally across risk assets.

🔴 But beware:

• 🧓 Old-school bear Marc Faber warns of inflation returning to 5%

• 🏦 Larry Fink sees inflation sticking around for longer
  → If they’re right, the Fed won’t cut - and risk assets could get hit again

📌 Bottom Line:

Markets are dancing on a knife’s edge. Between global political drama and shifting macro winds, there’s room for both explosive upside and sudden downside. Don’t fade the volatility - just respect it. Play tight until things clarify.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

😶 Crypto X: Bored, Cautious, Watching...

Crypto Twitter is in full observer mode. Gold just printed a new all-time high, and the dollar is sliding down, which usually plays in crypto's favor, but no one’s rushing in.

🔸 BTC looks healthy here. With gold breaking out, Bitcoin is catching bids as a higher beta play on hard money. BTC/GOLD ratio is setting up for potential outperformance if the trend confirms.

🧠 What traders are watching:

• 🟢 Longs: BTC, HYPE, FARTCOIN

• 🔴 Shorts: APT, SUI, XRP

Sentiment is skewed defensive. Everyone’s waiting for the Fed to blink and end quantitative tightening - a move that could turbocharge crypto flows.

🧪 Unusual Trends in the Altverse:

• Bigcoin (BIG) - a meme-game meets ponzinomicz on ETH L2 Abstract, backed by Pudgy Penguins. Players “mine” Bigcoin by buying virtual miners with the BIG token. Wild? Yes. But it's drawing serious traffic to Abstract, which could be fertile ground for new projects soon.

💡 Takeaway:

Conviction is low. Attention spans are short. But opportunities still exist - especially for those with the patience to wait and the courage to pounce when the setup appears.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Trump signs first-ever U.S. crypto bill, repealing IRS DeFi rule
The repeal of Biden’s DeFi broker rule marks the first crypto legislation signed by a U.S. president, signaling a major policy shift.

Ripple and SEC file joint motion to pause appeals for settlement
Ripple and the SEC have reached an agreement-in-principle to end their long-running legal battle over XRP, pending final approval.

Ross Ulbricht to speak at Bitcoin Conference after Trump pardon
The former Silk Road operator will make his first public appearance in Las Vegas after receiving a presidential pardon earlier this year.

Arizona Bitcoin mining protection bill heads to governor
New legislation would prevent cities from restricting home-based crypto mining and includes provisions for state-level Bitcoin reserves.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Ivan on Tech – BITCOIN: THEY WILL PRINT!!!!!! (Powell) (11.04.2025 Summary)

The Fed will have to print money soon – and Ivan says Bitcoin is the lifeboat.

🔥 Ivan’s Core Outlook:

• U.S. Bond Market = Crisis Mode
  Bond yields keep rising because nobody wants to buy U.S. debt. That means higher borrowing costs for the government, and it becomes a vicious cycle. Ivan sees this as a full-blown emergency.
  

• Trump Will Push the Fed to Print
  Trump is actively trying to bring the Fed under his control (hint: fire Powell) to restart bond-buying and cut rates fast. Ivan believes it’s inevitable that the Fed will soon step in with QE to calm bond markets and lower yields.
  

• Why That’s Bullish for Bitcoin
  More printing = more liquidity = stronger Bitcoin.
  Ivan: “This is the exact moment where you want to hold Bitcoin, not fiat. If the Fed loses independence, BTC goes vertical.”

🧠 Macro Narrative Shift:

• Powell Has No Excuse Left
  Inflation just dropped to 2.4%, below expectations. Ivan says this removes Powell’s last argument against rate cuts or easing.
  

• Markets Are Front-Running Action
  Despite chaos in stocks and treasuries, Bitcoin is holding up and futures are green. Ivan thinks the market knows the Fed and Trump will intervene, which could unleash the next crypto wave.
  

• The U.S. Dollar’s Confidence Crisis
  When treasuries are no longer safe, global capital flows elsewhere. Gold is ripping, and Bitcoin is next. Ivan draws a straight line: “If treasuries collapse, so do traditional finance models. Bitcoin becomes the alternative.”

⚡ Key Levels & Technicals:

• BTC holding 50-week moving average around $81K

• Needs to break $90K to confirm new bullish momentum

• Double bottom forming on 4H chart with a target of $86K

🚨 Headlines That Matter (According to Ivan):

• Trump may fire Powell by using recent Supreme Court precedent

• Inflation down to 2.4% — “No excuse not to cut now”

• Robert Bessant (Trump’s key economic advisor) is reportedly prepping coordinated action with the Fed

• SEC regime is changing: crypto bills are passing, DeFi taxation rules are being rolled back

🧩 Bigger Picture:

• Institutional Adoption Is Only Just Beginning
  Ivan points to the generational shift in government and leadership (young crypto-native advisors now influencing U.S. policy) as the real start of Bitcoin going mainstream.
  

• Crypto Regulation Momentum Is Building
  First pro-crypto legislation passed; new SEC chair confirmed; stablecoin rules incoming. Ivan sees this as the early stages of “regulatory clarity = bullish breakout.”

Final Take:
Ivan believes we’re on the cusp of a historic moment for Bitcoin — not just because of the chart or the halving, but because the global financial system is starting to fracture. Between bond market stress, institutional demand, and regulatory tailwinds, Bitcoin is Ivan’s ultimate play for the months ahead.

Benjamin Cowen – Inflation Drops to 2.4% (11.04.2025 Summary)

Inflation is falling, but the market isn’t celebrating — Cowen sees bigger macro forces at play.

📉 Core Outlook:

• Inflation Print Was Positive — But Markets Shrugged
  CPI came in at 2.4%, lower than the consensus 2.6%. Core inflation also dropped significantly, from 3.1% to 2.8%.
  

• Cowen calls this a solid step in the right direction but notes that risk assets like Bitcoin still dropped. Why? He suspects labor market fears may now be overtaking inflation as the dominant concern.
  

• Markets May Be Pivoting Focus
  While inflation looks tamed, unemployment data is starting to deteriorate, and job cuts are rising. Cowen thinks the market may transition from "inflation panic" to "recession anxiety."

🧠 Macro Interpretation:

• We Might Already Be in a Recession
  The Atlanta Fed projects negative GDP for Q1, and Cowen warns that recessions aren’t always confirmed until much later. He sees current asset weakness as early signs of macro stress.
  

• Gold Is Outperforming for a Reason
  Gold is leading the market, which Cowen says is typical when monetary policy is preparing to shift back to easing. He believes gold will continue to outperform the S&P until broader policy turns more dovish.
  

• Bitcoin in a Holding Pattern
  BTC is still holding above its early 2024 highs. Cowen says a dip to $69K is acceptable as long as the broader structure holds. But so far, Bitcoin hasn't reacted strongly to the positive CPI print — signaling caution.

📊 Inflation Categories Breakdown:

• Housing inflation continues to fall - the biggest deflationary tailwind

• Food & “Other goods and services” still rising slightly, but not alarming

• Core CPI finally dropping from its long-standing ~3% plateau

Cowen expects continued disinflation if housing costs keep trending lower.

⏱️ Key Timing Insight:

• He’s been watching a window between Feb OPEX and mid-April for market weakness

• That window may now be closing, making room for possible relief rallies if macro data stabilizes

🧭 Risk Factors to Watch:

• S&P vs. Unemployment² ratio is approaching a key support level
  Cowen uses this to track business cycle health - if it breaks down, he sees more downside risk for equities
  

• If job losses accelerate, Fed may shift from inflation fighting to full-on recession defense

🪙 Bitcoin Dominance Outlook:

• Cowen expects Bitcoin dominance to continue rising, regardless of BTC price direction
  Why? Because quantitative tightening is still in play, and that environment favors BTC over alts

Final Take:
Cowen is cautiously optimistic after the inflation print - but he’s not celebrating just yet. He sees signs of early recession, notes that risk assets remain under pressure, and believes the market is now watching the labor market more than inflation. For now, Bitcoin’s structure remains intact, but it needs a clear catalyst - like a confirmed Fed pivot - before real momentum returns.

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