Bitcoin Price Rises as New Data Shows Inflation Cooled

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Slight Boost for the Market

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Today’s market action is driven by new inflation data and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Let’s dive into the latest updates and their impact on the crypto landscape.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, slightly below the 2.9% economists had expected. This marks a continued downtrend but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, making it unclear how soon interest rate cuts could happen.

Key Data Points from the CPI Report:

✅ Headline Inflation: 2.8% (January was 3.1%)
✅ Core Inflation (excluding food and energy): 3.1% (January was 3.3%)
✅ Shelter Costs: Increased by 0.3%, still a major contributor to inflation
✅ Gasoline and Airfare Prices: Declined, helping ease some cost-of-living pressures

After the CPI data was released, Bitcoin initially spiked to $84,000 before reversing lower. Ethereum hit $1,950, and Solana climbed to $130, but both quickly followed Bitcoin’s price action.

Despite this initial reaction, crypto markets are struggling to hold onto gains, with altcoins facing the most selling pressure.

One of the biggest factors weighing on sentiment is the recent delay in the approval of the XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), which has dampened enthusiasm in the broader altcoin market.

What This Means for the Crypto Market:

🔻 Bitcoin price targets remain between $70,000 and $76,000

🔻 Ethereum is struggling to hold with potential support at $1,600

🔻 Altcoins continue to underperform, with negative sentiment dragging prices lower.

With the market lacking a strong catalyst to push prices higher, traders are treading cautiously.

THIS NEWSLETTER IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
OPENWALLET

Next-level security for your digital assets

Experience top security with Open Wallet. Your wallet blends user-friendliness with strong security.

SOCIAL SENTIMENT

💡 Cautious Investors, Oversold Markets, and the Risk of Further Downside

Sentiment in the crypto market remains bearish as uncertainty continues to weigh on investors. Many assets appear oversold, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term bounce before the downtrend resumes.

Key Market Concerns Weighing on Sentiment:

📌 Tariff Uncertainty: The aftereffects of President Trump’s new tariff policies remain unknown, creating hesitation in financial markets. Investors are watching how these policies impact earnings reports from major corporations, especially the Big 7 tech stocks that dominate the market.

📌 Mt. Gox Bitcoin Distribution: The long-awaited distribution of Bitcoin to former Mt. Gox creditors continues to weigh on sentiment. If large amounts of Bitcoin are sold after distribution, it could introduce significant selling pressure into the market.

📌 Artificial Intelligence Developments to Watch: While most discussions are centered around DeepSeek AI, a potentially bigger development is happening behind the scenes with Manus AI. This new AI model has not gained the same viral attention but could significantly impact NVIDIA and other AI-related stocks in the medium term.

📌 Michael Saylor’s 21 Billion Dollar Bitcoin Fundraising: While negative sentiment persists, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is rising 21 billion dollars, which could help absorb some potential selling pressure. This move signals continued institutional interest in Bitcoin, even in uncertain conditions.

📊 Final Market Outlook:

The crypto market is entering a highly uncertain phase. With multiple risk factors, investors should remain patient and avoid making impulsive decisions. Short squeezes could provide short-term relief, but broader macroeconomic conditions remain unclear.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

South Korea Prepares Institutional Crypto Investment Guidelines for Q3
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission is set to release guidelines in Q3 to allow institutional crypto investment, ending a de facto ban on traditional finance participation.

HYPE Token Drops 8.5% as Whale Liquidation Costs Hyperliquid $4M
A massive liquidation event caused Hyperliquid’s HLP vault to absorb a $4M loss, triggering an 8.5% drop in HYPE’s price before partial recovery.

House Votes to Overturn Biden-Era DeFi Tax Rule
A bipartisan vote in the U.S. House has rescinded IRS regulations that would have forced DeFi platforms to report user tax information, citing technical impracticality.

SEC Delays XRP ETF Decision as Franklin Templeton Joins Race
The SEC extended its review of Grayscale’s XRP ETF, while Franklin Templeton filed its own application, fueling institutional demand for altcoin ETFs.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

CoinBureau - Trump’s Tariffs Will DESTROY the Economy… Or Will They? (12.03.2025 Summary)

Trump’s Tariffs: Economic Disaster or Political Power Play?

CoinBureau dives into the chaos surrounding President Trump’s new tariffs. Are they a strategic maneuver, or are they setting the U.S. up for economic turmoil?

1. Trump’s Tariff Strategy – The Logic & The Reality

Trump’s aggressive tariffs hit China (10%), Canada (25%), and Mexico (25%) right out of the gate.

His argument?
✅ Foreign countries pay the U.S. to access its market
✅ Tariffs will bring jobs and investment back to the U.S.
✅ Higher U.S. manufacturing → More growth and economic strength

The problem?
❌ Tariffs are actually paid by U.S. importers, not foreign exporters
❌ 2018-2019 tariffs led to higher costs for businesses and job losses
❌ Retaliation from other nations could disrupt trade and spike inflation

2. Canada & Mexico: The Unexpected Targets

While Trump justified the tariffs as a way to combat illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, the numbers don’t support the claim.

• Canada: Barely contributes to U.S. fentanyl inflows (only 0.2% of seized fentanyl in 2024 came from Canada).

• Mexico: Stronger link to fentanyl trade, but already deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to address border issues.

Despite initial outrage, both Canada and Mexico negotiated temporary relief, proving they lack the leverage to fight a full trade war with the U.S.

3. China’s Response – Trade War 2.0?

China has threatened countermeasures, including:
📌 10-15% tariffs on U.S. goods
📌 Export restrictions on critical minerals
📌 Google under antitrust scrutiny

With U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports now averaging 33%, markets fear a return to the brutal 2018-2019 trade war cycle.

4. The European Union – The Next Target?

Trump has now set his sights on the EU, threatening a 25% tariff on cars and other goods.
His reasoning? “The EU was formed to screw the United States.”

The EU has vowed retaliation, leveraging its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which could escalate tensions further.

5. Impact on Markets & Crypto – What Comes Next?

Who wins?
✅ U.S. industries protected by tariffs (manufacturing, steel, some agriculture)
✅ Companies with deep pockets who can stockpile goods before tariffs fully hit

Who loses?
❌ Small businesses – Higher import costs without capital to absorb them
❌ Consumers – Inflation could spike, worsening cost-of-living struggles
❌ Crypto markets – Less disposable income means fewer retail investors

The biggest question: Will Trump stick to his tariffs, or is this just a negotiation tactic?
If tariffs remain, economic uncertainty could delay the next big crypto bull run as investors hold onto cash.

Final Take: Trump’s tariffs are shaking up global trade, but their true impact remains unclear. If inflation spikes and markets panic, expect risk assets like crypto to struggle in the short term. However, institutional investors could step in, shifting the crypto landscape away from retail dominance.

Benjamin Cowen - Ethereum: Almost Home (12.03.2025 Summary)

Ethereum’s Next Move: Pain Before Progress?

Benjamin Cowen breaks down Ethereum’s critical price structure and how it mirrors past cycles. Despite investor frustration, ETH may need to suffer more downside before a recovery.

1. ETH’s Logarithmic Regression Trend – A Familiar Pattern

Ethereum is following its historical cycle patterns, slowly dropping into its long-term regression band.

📌 2016, 2019, and now 2025 → ETH first dips into the regression zone, then bottoms out after Bitcoin dominance peaks
📌 Previous cycles show ETH tends to drop deeper into regression before bouncing
📌 Ethereum’s price movement is a direct function of Fed monetary policy

2. ETH/BTC – Why It’s Still Struggling

Ethereum’s biggest problem? Bitcoin dominance is still rising.
For ETH to recover:
✅ The Federal Reserve must pivot away from quantitative tightening
✅ Bitcoin dominance needs to decline, allowing altcoins to shine
✅ ETH must complete its “homecoming” into its final lower support level

Until then, ETH/BTC pairs are likely to continue falling.

3. Ethereum’s Price Levels – Key Ranges to Watch

📌 $1,500 - $1,600 → Major support within the regression trend
📌 $1,000 - $1,200 → Extreme downside (but historically significant)
📌 Breakout above $2,000 → Would signal a shift in market structure

Cowen warns that ETH dropping to $1,500 wouldn’t be the end, as past cycles suggest ETH could briefly dip below $1,200 before bouncing.

4. The Fed’s Role – The Missing Piece for ETH’s Comeback

ETH’s last major breakdowns (2018, 2019) came right before the Fed pivoted away from tightening.

The current expectation is that the Fed won’t end QT until mid-2025, meaning ETH’s recovery may take longer than bulls expect.

5. What This Means for Crypto Investors

✅ Big investors are accumulating top 50 cryptos – Institutions are playing the long game
✅ Bitcoin remains the safer bet until the macro picture changes
✅ ETH’s best buying opportunity may still be ahead if it reaches the $1,200 zone

Final Take: Ethereum’s correction is painful but necessary. If history repeats, ETH will hit a lower support level before recovering. The key catalyst? A Fed policy shift. Until then, expect ETH to remain under pressure, with the best buying opportunities still ahead.

Conclusion: Crypto’s Waiting Game

Both CoinBureau and Benjamin Cowen agree:
📌 Macroeconomic uncertainty is delaying the crypto breakout
📌 Retail investors are under pressure, leaving institutions in control
📌 Patience is key – major opportunities will emerge once the Fed shifts policy

CRYPTO MEMES