Risk-On Rally Continues

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

The Macro-Driven Bull Run

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Momentum continues to build as we kick off this new week. The king of crypto isn't just touching six figures anymore, it's claiming that throne decisively.

🚀 The $100K Breakthrough is Real. 

Bitcoin has officially crossed into six-figure territory and is holding strong, while Ethereum has awakened from its slumber to reclaim $2,500. This isn't your typical crypto pump, fundamental macro shifts are driving this rally.

🕊️ The Trade War Pause That Changed Everything 

The game-changer came in the form of a 90-day ceasefire between the US and China. Both superpowers agreed to dramatically slash their reciprocal tariffs:

• China reduced duties from 125% to 10%

• US scaled back from 145% to 30%

Markets love certainty, and this temporary truce signals both nations are serious about finding common ground. The immediate result? A surge in global risk appetite that sent equities soaring and crypto following suit.

💼 Institutional Money Keeps Flowing 

MicroStrategy continues its Bitcoin shopping spree, adding another 13,390 BTC for $1.3 billion last week. Their total holdings now stand at a staggering 568,840 Bitcoin. Meanwhile, ETF inflows are maintaining steady momentum with nearly $600 million entering the space over the past three days.

Interestingly, Ethereum's price recovery hasn't translated to ETF enthusiasm. Despite reclaiming $2,500, ETH ETFs remain largely ignored by institutional investors, raising questions about where smart money sees value.

📉 Supply Squeeze Intensifies 

Exchange balances continue their downward trend as buyers withdraw Bitcoin to long-term storage. This persistent outflow pattern suggests conviction among holders and reduces available supply for new buyers, creating natural upward price pressure.

🌏 Macro Factors Fueling the Bullish Sentiment

Beyond the tariff truce, several converging factors are flipping the market to risk-on mode:

• US banking regulations now permit national banks to custody and transact crypto

• Global M2 money supply expansion eases liquidity concerns

• Stagflation fears make Bitcoin increasingly attractive as an inflation hedge

• Central bank policies suggest that accommodative stances may persist

Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom has even said, "Buy everything." This reflects growing conviction that crypto sits perfectly positioned in the current macro landscape.

🤔 Our Thoughts: 

After such a rapid ascent, Bitcoin faces resistance holding above $105K. Near-term consolidation around the $100K psychological level seems probable before attempting another leg higher. Many altcoins have posted 2x-4x gains during this rally, making 10-30% corrections likely as traders take profits.

While sentiment has shifted decidedly bullish (meaning dips become buying opportunities), risk management remains essential. Tomorrow's US CPI release could trigger pre-event positioning, so expect potential volatility.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Ethereum Awakens, Trump Token Rumors Swirl

The crypto community's attention has shifted dramatically toward Ethereum's long-awaited revival. After months of underperformance, ETH's move above $2,500 has traders questioning whether this sleeping giant might finally catch up to Bitcoin's momentum.

👀 Market Rotation Signals 

Ethereum's outperformance versus Solana marks a potential shift in market dynamics. For the first time in months, SOL is lagging ETH, suggesting capital might be rotating from newer ecosystems back to established players.

However, the lack of institutional ETF interest remains concerning. While retail celebrates ETH's recovery, institutions continue directing flows exclusively toward Bitcoin products.

🎯 The Trump Token Wild Card 

Whispers about Donald Trump's upcoming token launch for Truth Social are creating uncertainty. Traders remember how his previous token launch triggered widespread altcoin selling as capital rushed into TRUMP.

Traders are now guessing on which chain the new token will launch.

• Solana: His original choice, proven capable of handling volume

• Ethereum: Prestigious but high gas fees pose accessibility issues

• Base: Low fees, built on Ethereum, with Coinbase's political connections

• Binance Chain: Dark horse candidate if CZ offers compelling incentives

⚠️ Potential Market Impact A Trump token launch outside Solana could trigger ecosystem-wide effects:

• Immediate capital rotation from existing positions

• Potential local top formation similar to previous launch

• Solana ecosystem particularly vulnerable if another chain wins

💡 Bottom Line The market enjoys strong momentum, but experienced traders are positioning defensively ahead of potential catalysts. Tomorrow's CPI data and Trump token rumors create a backdrop where taking partial profits makes sense, even as the broader trend remains bullish.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Global Dollar Network Adds 19 New Partners for USDG Expansion
Paxos-backed GDN expands its Solana-based stablecoin USDG with 19 new partners, including BitMart, Zodia, and Rain.

Trump-Affiliated American Bitcoin to Go Public via Gryphon Merger
American Bitcoin, tied to Eric Trump, will go public through a Gryphon Digital merger, securing a Nasdaq listing under ABTC.

South Korean Candidates Back Spot Crypto ETFs Ahead of Election
Both leading presidential candidates in South Korea pledge to legalize spot crypto ETFs, signaling rare bipartisan support.

Tokyo’s Beat Holdings Raises Bitcoin ETF Cap to $34M
Beat Holdings quadruples its IBIT ETF investment limit, echoing Metaplanet’s crypto treasury strategy amid Bitcoin’s rally.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Ivan On Tech – BITCOIN AND ALTCOINS ARE READY TO SNAP!!! (12.05.2025 Summary)

Ivan is ultra bullish. Bitcoin is pushing new highs, altcoins are showing breakout signals, and the "banana zone" — the most parabolic stage of a bull market — may be right around the corner. Retail is still mostly absent, which could mean we’re early in the final explosive leg.

✅ Bitcoin Outlook:

• Bitcoin breaks $105K and is likely heading toward price discovery above $110K.

• Ivan believes the move from $110K to $150K could happen very fast, driven purely by FOMO and no historical resistance.

• No blow-off top yet, no retail hype — this is still an “early” phase by market psychology standards.

• Market structure is "measured and mature", with long sideways phases shaking out short-term traders.

• Big players are still buying, with another Michael Saylor buy announcement likely incoming.

• Bitcoin dominance appears to be topping out, which could unleash the altcoin rally.

🚀 Altcoins: Fastest Horses Gearing Up

• SUI is Ivan’s top watch: likely to break all-time highs soon and possibly go to $10 or more. Long-term speculation: even $30–$50 in the banana zone.

• Solana is recovering fast with potential targets at $250 to $300.

• ETH is showing signs of life again. If BTC dominance really rolls over, ETH could retake momentum — possible move toward $4.1K cycle high.

• SUI vs. SOL is the key race: both are among the fastest majors, but SUI has led in most recent cycles.

• Ivan sees this as the final year of the bull cycle, historically the most explosive for altcoins.

🧠 Macro and Sentiment Insights:

• Retail still not here. Despite Bitcoin being at $105K+, YouTube/Twitter engagement is far lower than in previous cycles. This is a major bullish divergence.

• Traditional finance is waking up. Bitcoin is outperforming stocks, gold, and tech indexes, reaching all-time highs in BTC/S&P, BTC/NASDAQ, and BTC/gold charts.

• Mark Zuckerberg reportedly working on stablecoin integrations across Facebook apps — a major push by Big Tech into crypto.

• US–China trade talks improving market sentiment. Stock futures are pumping, creating a bullish macro backdrop.

🏁 Cycle Positioning: The Banana Zone is Near

• Ivan revisits historic "banana zone" rallies — when coins go 50–100x in months (e.g., MATIC in 2021, Nano in 2017).

• Warns that the final stage of the bull run is where insane exponential moves happen fast, often in the last 2–4 months of the cycle.

• Emphasizes the importance of rotating into strength, not clinging to underperformers.

• Bitcoin cycles historically top around October–November, so now is the time to be fully in position, but ready to derisk later in the year.

🧭 Final Take:

Ivan believes we’re on the verge of the most explosive part of the cycle. Bitcoin is entering price discovery, altcoins are showing life, and the lack of retail involvement means the runway is still long. If BTC dominance breaks down, we could enter the “banana zone” — the final euphoric phase where fortunes are made quickly.

Lark Davis – HUGE NEWS FOR CRYPTO (12.05.2025 Summary)

A potential US-China trade deal is boosting market sentiment, and Bitcoin is on a tear — but Lark is cautious of a near-term pullback. He remains heavily positioned in BTC and altcoins but is holding stablecoins for strategic entries. Meme coins are dominating attention, and early signals are pointing toward a shift from Bitcoin season to altcoin season.

📰 Macro Tailwinds: US-China Trade De-escalation

• Ongoing trade talks between the US and China have led to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, sparking optimism across global markets.

• S&P futures are up ~3%, showing that risk-on sentiment is back.

• Lark views this de-escalation as a major relief for both traditional and crypto markets.

📈 Bitcoin Technicals & Pullback Watch

• Bitcoin has surged from $74K to $105K in just weeks, with no major pullback — a potential red flag.

• Weekly MACD bull cross just confirmed, typically a very strong signal (last time it happened, BTC ran from $69K to $109K).

• Lark warns of a potential "double top" trap if this week’s candle doesn't close strongly above prior highs.

• $1.45 billion in long positions could be liquidated if BTC dips below ~$102.7K, making the pullback zone a target for whales.

🪙 Altcoin Outlook: Alt Season May Be Starting

• Bitcoin dominance just flashed its first daily sell signal since Nov 2024 — often a precursor to altcoin strength.

• BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index is shifting, suggesting a transition from Bitcoin to altcoin outperformance.

• Lark emphasizes this is where altcoins can massively outperform BTC, even if Bitcoin continues upward.

🧠 Lark’s Portfolio Positioning

• Currently holds:

  • ~55% in BTC

  • ~40%+ in altcoins

  • ~4% in stablecoins (waiting for pullback opportunities)

• Avoiding new positions unless price confirms breakout or meaningful dip

• No recent meme coin buys, but watching for new entries — especially after missed opportunities like Moodeng (660% in 5 days)

🔥 Meme Coins, ETH, and ETH Alternatives

• Lark praises meme coin winners like Pepe, Moodeng and regrets missing out on bigger entries.

• Believes meme coins have become a core narrative and generate serious gains despite being speculative.

• No longer holds ETH — shifted funds into other higher-beta plays. He respects ETH but sees better opportunity elsewhere.

• Still holds Aptos, IOTA, and other alt L1s with speculative upside.

📊 Notable Mentions:

• XRP: Watching a potential triangle breakout with a target near $4.50 if confirmed.

• Avalanche (AVAX): Technically improving but still underperforming relative to fundamentals.

• SEI: Strong on-chain growth, but still under the 200-day MA — needs a confirmed breakout.

• Altcoins are showing stronger user and transaction growth, hinting at deeper strength building.

🎯 Final Take:

Lark remains bullish but measured. Macro conditions are improving, and Bitcoin is strong, but a healthy correction could be near after a relentless run. The shift toward altcoin season is beginning, meme coins are leading the way, and serious money may be made over the coming weeks. His strategy: stay positioned, stay selective, and wait for clear setups to deploy stablecoins.

CRYPTO MEMES

GM 💚