DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Will BTC Hold?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market is sitting at one of the most decisive spots of the cycle.

🐻 Bitcoin is holding just above 100k, but only barely. Price action is weak, momentum is fading, and the chart is at a point where every candle matters. A close below 98k would open the door to a deeper correction.

Equities are also selling off today, and crypto is simply following. Liquidity remains thin and conviction is low across the board.

There is still a chance for a short term bounce. Hansolar, one of the best traders this cycle, pointed out that the current structure looks similar to the 2024 capitulation setup that was followed by a strong recovery.

But for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to hold this area. If we lose 100k with force, the downside target becomes the 90k region.

❌ The CPI inflation release has been delayed again due to the government shutdown, which adds another layer of uncertainty around a possible December rate cut.

• Odds on Polymarket and FedWatch are sitting slightly above 50%, showing that markets are still unsure.

ETF flows remained negative with close to $300 million out of BTC products yesterday and around $200 million out of ETH.

Overall, the market is on extremely shaky ground. A bounce is still possible, but the probability is shrinking as BTC grinds lower.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Bitcoin Dominance and Alts

Altcoins have shown surprising resilience over the past week as Bitcoin dominance fell from 61.4% to 59.7%. Capital rotated around and some alts did really well.

That said, BTC dominance is now hitting a key trend line that could easily reverse the recent relief. If Bitcoin breaks down from here, alts are likely to face another harsh liquidation wave.

• Any decisive move below 100k usually accelerates fear, and alts historically take the worst of it.

Short term traders should be extremely cautious. Liquidity is thin and moves are sharp in both directions.

Long term, this type of environment can offer strong opportunities to accumulate quality projects.

For us, Chainlink continues to stand out. They are building the core infrastructure that connects crypto to traditional finance, with real world integration already happening. One example is their ongoing work with UBS, one of Switzerland’s largest banks.

Chainlink has a real chance to become a core layer for the entire industry. But even with that conviction, we are staying patient for now and not touching alts until the broader market stabilizes.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Taiwan Considers Bitcoin for National Reserves
Taiwan lawmakers are pushing the government to evaluate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, calling for a full review and an inventory of seized BTC by year-end.

Polymarket Signs Major Partnership With UFC
Polymarket will become the exclusive prediction market partner for UFC and Zuffa Boxing, adding real-time fan prediction features to broadcasts and events.

Circle Adds Onchain FX Trading and Multi-Currency Support to Arc
Circle upgraded its Arc blockchain with a 24/7 onchain FX engine and new regional stablecoin integrations to modernize global payments and settlements.

Japan Exchange Group May Tighten Rules on Crypto Treasury Firms
Japan’s main exchange operator is considering stricter oversight for companies heavily accumulating crypto after sharp drops in digital asset treasury stocks.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Fear & Greed (13.11.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen dives into the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index and what its recent divergence from price action could mean for the market. Despite BTC pushing higher in recent months, sentiment hasn’t kept up, and Cowen believes this mismatch may offer clues about where we are in the cycle.

Key Points – Sentiment vs Price

• BTC rising, but sentiment falling – Bitcoin has made higher highs from March 2024 to August 2025, but the Fear & Greed Index peaked back in November 2024 and has been putting in lower highs since.

• Classic divergence – Similar sentiment divergences happened in 2021, often leading to corrections or resets before the next leg up.

• Key indicators align – Weekly RSI is nearing historic support, and the 30-day moving average of the Fear & Greed Index is approaching levels where Bitcoin has previously bounced.

• Not full euphoria yet – Despite some spikes in sentiment, Cowen notes that we haven't reached the same high-risk “greed” levels seen in past cycle tops, especially compared to 2021.

• Historical buying zones – Historically, buying BTC when the Fear & Greed Index is below 30 (or especially below 20) has been a solid long-term strategy, suggesting accumulating now could pay off if you’re patient.

• Consolidation or breakdown? – If Bitcoin doesn’t bounce soon (given RSI, sentiment, and the upcoming death cross), it may confirm the beginning of a new bear phase into 2026.

• Focus on BTC over hype – Cowen closes by reminding viewers that Bitcoin remains the most reliable long-term bet, unlike meme coins and altcoins driven by hype and influencers.

Final Takeaway

Cowen urges caution. The market is at a critical point where technical and sentiment indicators suggest a possible bounce, but failure to rally could mark the beginning of a deeper downtrend. Either way, staying focused on Bitcoin and avoiding distractions is Cowen’s recommended play.

CoinBureau – US Government Shutdown ENDS, Time To BUY? (13.11.2025 Summary)

Nick explores Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100K, the panic it caused, and why the quick rebound might be the start of something bigger.

Key Points

• Market panic: BTC fell from $126K to $97K, liquidating $1.7B in longs. Retail sentiment flipped to fear, while long-term holders sold over 100K BTC in October.

• Recovery spark: Despite the panic, whales bought 68K BTC during the dip, and US spot ETFs saw $240M in inflows. Smart money stepped in.

• Shutdown resolution: The biggest catalyst is macro - the US government ending its 42-day shutdown. That unlocks up to $850B in liquidity via Treasury spending.

• Why it matters: The Treasury General Account had been draining liquidity. Now, it’s expected to flood capital back into the system, potentially lifting all risk assets, including BTC.

• Key levels: $100K is now firm support. Reclaiming $110K–$112.5K (short-term holder average cost) could open the door to retest $126K ATH.

• Bearish risks: Long-term holders have sold 300K BTC since July, a sign of fatigue. ETF outflows, Fed surprises, and tax season selling are additional concerns.

Final Takeaway
Liquidity is returning, but Bitcoin still needs to prove strength. Breaking above $112.5K is the next big test for a year-end rally.

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