Macro Pressure Builds

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

From Calm to Caution

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The mood has slightly shifted. After weeks of green candles, crypto markets are catching a chill, and it’s not just technicals. Inflation fears, resurging tariffs, and macro tension are starting to show their teeth.

Bitcoin Still Above $100K, But the Trend is Softening

At first glance, things don’t look bad. Bitcoin is above $100K, a major milestone. But price action tells a more cautious story. Altcoins are pulling back, trading volumes are thinning out, and volatility is creeping higher.

What’s driving this shift in mood? The answer is inflation - and not in the way you might think.

April Inflation Report: A Surprise Drop, But Deceptive

The Producer Price Index (PPI) - which measures inflation at the wholesale level -fell by 0.5% in April. That’s the biggest drop since the pandemic.

Sounds great, right? Lower prices should mean inflation is cooling off.

But here’s the problem:

This drop may be temporary, and most economists aren’t celebrating. Instead, they’re warning that deeper inflation pressures are still building.

Why Are People Still Worried About Inflation?

Let’s break it down.

1. Tariffs are Back
   The government is reintroducing or increasing tariffs on certain imported goods. These taxes raise costs for businesses, who in turn pass them on to consumers. This creates delayed inflation, even if short-term data looks soft.
   

2. Core Goods Are Getting More Expensive
   When you remove food and energy (the volatile stuff), prices for goods have been steadily rising. In fact, April saw the fastest increase in core goods in over two years.
   

3. Retail Sales Are Weak
   Consumers are pulling back. Data from April shows spending is slowing, especially in discretionary categories like electronics and apparel. This signals that households are feeling squeezed by higher prices and borrowing costs.
   

4. Big Retailers Are Sounding the Alarm
   Companies like Walmart and Target are openly warning that they won’t be able to absorb rising costs much longer. Price hikes are coming and they’ll hit everyday shoppers.

What Did Powell Say About It All?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke about the economy this week, and he didn’t sugarcoat anything.

Translation: Disruptions like tariffs, geopolitical tension, and supply chain issues are going to make inflation more unpredictable and harder to control.

Because of that, Powell suggested the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, even if growth slows. The Fed would rather prevent inflation from getting out of hand than risk lowering rates too soon.

How This Affects Crypto

Crypto is highly sensitive to macro conditions, especially when it comes to:

• Liquidity (how much money is flowing into risk assets)

• Investor confidence (whether traders are willing to take on risk)

Rising interest rates and persistent inflation both make the environment tougher for crypto. That’s why we’re seeing:

• BTC struggling to move higher

• Altcoins pulling back 10 to 30 percent in some cases

• Traders shifting into safer positions or stablecoins

Key Level to Watch: $97K to $100K

This is the zone where Bitcoin is expected to find its first line of support. If it holds, we might see buyers step in and stabilize the market. If it breaks down, expect a deeper correction - especially across alts.

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Vibes Check: Cautiously Optimistic

Traders are still leaning bullish, but the mood has shifted. With BTC hovering near support and altcoins pulling back hard, most are staying light, rotating fast, and avoiding overexposure.

A rally continuation isn’t off the table, especially if BTC holds $100K and the likes of Michael Saylor keep buying, but the market is bracing for volatility.

🧐 Projects on Our Radar

🐶 DOGE – The Meme King Eyes a Comeback
DOGE has been quietly making higher lows since October 2023. Its chart is looking solid. If we get rate cuts and QE, this one could pop. Until then, it’s a risky but interesting watch.

• ATH: $0.75

• Potential catalyst: Liquidity injections or retail revival

📈 HYPE – Perpetuals Remain Hot
Perpetual markets are maturing fast, and HYPE is leading that charge. It’s become the preferred home for many degens, especially those seeking leverage and rewards.

• Key level to watch: $20 support

• Sentiment: Strong, but watching for liquidity shifts

🚀 KEETA – Cooling Off After a Run

Previously mentioned in our report, KEETA has been on a tear. We’re now waiting for a healthy pullback before considering re-entry. No FOMO here, just patience.

🔥 LAUNCHCOIN – The Solana Trend Chaser

This new Solana-based hype play has gone parabolic, but the fundamentals aren’t there yet. We’re staying out for now, monitoring whether the ICM narrative has staying power.

🧠 Sentiment Summary

• BTC dominance rising again

• Altcoins correcting in a normal 10 to 30 percent range should be expected

• Narratives thinning

• Top traders hedging and managing risk

💡 Final Thought

The crypto rally isn’t over, but it’s pausing. With inflation risk back in the picture, traders are adjusting. Watch BTC’s support levels closely, stay nimble, and don’t let short-term volatility shake your long-term strategy.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Coinbase Offers $20M Bounty for Hackers Behind Data Breach Attempt
Coinbase is offering $20 million to identify extortionists who tried to blackmail the exchange with stolen user data.

Senate May Vote on Revised Stablecoin Bill by Memorial Day
U.S. senators expect a vote on the GENIUS Act soon, with new language omitting Trump-specific crypto conflict clauses.

Wintermute Expands to NYC, Hires Policy Veteran Ron Hammond
Wintermute is opening a U.S. headquarters in New York and hiring Ron Hammond amid a more favorable U.S. crypto climate.

Ark Invest Buys $9.4M in eToro Shares, Sells Bitcoin ETF Holdings
Cathie Wood’s Ark bought eToro stock on its Nasdaq debut and sold $7.9 million of its own Bitcoin ETF to rebalance funds.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Josh Olszewicz – “Alt Coins: Back to Needs More Time Season” (15.05.2025 Summary)

The Setup Is Done. Now What?

Josh says the easy trades are largely behind us. After strong breakouts across alts and a powerful BTC run, we’re back in “chop and wait” mode. The big theme now? Time. Most charts need time to consolidate, stabilize, and reset for the next move.

🧊 Cooling-Off Phase Incoming

• Many alts saw 2x+ runs recently — another 2x this month? Unlikely.

• Expect sideways consolidation, minor pullbacks, and technical resets

• BTC dominance still trending up; no sign of a real alt season yet

📉 Alts: Mostly Topped Out for Now

• Many alt setups completed their “edge-to-edge” moves

• Josh: “I say thank you to the market and take profits. The next setup comes later”

• Most alts (SOL, DOGE, SUI, LINK, ENA) either:

  • Hit their target moves and need rest

  • Or are near resistance and show bearish divergences

⚠️ Select Names to Watch (but Carefully)

• WGMI (miners): Still lagging; worth watching after a BTC pullback

• COIN: Completed a technical breakout and now likely to consolidate

• ENA: Has upside potential for Q4 but not a near-term 2x

• SOL/BTC: Still strong risk-reward for later upside

🏦 No Stablecoin Surge = No New Liquidity

• Still no uptick in stablecoin supply

• Without new money inflows, continuation trades lack fuel

• Market needs QE, lower rates, or a new macro catalyst to kick off fresh momentum

🔍 Legacy and Macro Markets Look Similar

• Stocks also look extended and due for consolidation

• Expect Q2 chop, possible Q3 lull, with Q4 “insanity” potential

🔚 Final Take: "Back to the Waiting Game"

• Josh isn’t bearish — just realistic about what's next

• BTC may see a pullback; alts will follow or underperform in that scenario

• Key advice: Don’t overtrade. Let the cloud setups develop.

Miles Deutscher – I'm Not Buying Altcoins (Yet) - Here's My Exact Dip Buying Strategy (15.05.2025 Summary)

🎯 Current Positioning: Not Buying Yet, But Close

Miles is holding off on major altcoin buys for now. He’s waiting for a meaningful pullback before entering with size. Despite recent strength in the market, he sees signs of a near-term rollover and is preparing his next major buys if key levels are hit.

📉 Bitcoin: The Key Levels Miles Is Watching

• Immediate Resistance: BTC is struggling around $104.8K, a major level of resistance just under all-time highs.
  

• Short-Term Risk: Bearish divergences on the 4-hour chart suggest a potential rollover. If BTC closes below current support, a move down toward $99–100K is likely.
  

• Critical Support Zone:

  • The $99–100K area aligns with multiple high-confluence indicators

  • If this zone holds, it may offer a strong buying opportunity for BTC and alts.

🛑 Caution for Altcoin Buyers

• Market Still Fragile: Even after strong altcoin rallies, BTC "sneezing" slightly sends alts diving.

• Potential Pullback Setup: If BTC corrects to 99K, many alts could drop 10–20%, offering better entries.

• Psychological Marker: Staying above 100K keeps Miles long-biased. A close below shifts him more defensive.

🧠 Altcoin Selection: Meta and Momentum Matter

• Focuses only on sectors in current “meta” (e.g., memes, agents, AI).

• Uses spaghetti charts and sector watchlists to find outperformers.

• Builds entry plans around trending assets retesting key levels (especially the daily Noodle).

🔄 Narrative Rotation and Trading Edge

• Miles stresses narratives > technicals for early entries.

• Identifies which themes are gaining mindshare (e.g., TRX ecosystem, memes).

• Example: He recently added TRX and is eyeing SunDog as a meme play if TRX runs.

✅ Final Take

Miles is in capital preservation mode short-term but bullish on the broader cycle. He wants to compound into the next move by letting price come to him.

He’s taken profits on 50% of his spot bags and is preparing to reload on any sweep of the 99K level. Until then, patience.

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