Bull Market Everywhere... Except Crypto

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Crypto Left Behind

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Crypto continues to feel heavy, even as the rest of the world pushes higher.

Stocks, metals, and risk assets outside of crypto are either at or near all-time highs, while Bitcoin and altcoins remain stuck in drawdowns.

Crypto: Still Not There

❌ Bitcoin remains technically weak. It’s below key levels, below the cloud, and lacks any meaningful bottoming structure. There’s no clean long setup here, and every bounce continues to get sold. This is not the kind of price action you want to see before committing serious capital.

❌ Ethereum looks even worse from a positioning perspective. COT data shows commercials heavily short, which historically makes sustained upside very difficult. Until that flips, ETH is fighting gravity rather than riding momentum.

❌ Altcoins remain in no-man’s land. SOL and others are chopping, but the broader structure is still bearish. Cheap doesn’t mean attractive, and some charts still leave room for another ugly leg lower.

Even Michael Saylor’s buying has failed to provide meaningful support for Bitcoin. His recent $1 billion purchase was not enough to prevent BTC from breaking its short-term uptrend, highlighting how fragile the current structure has become.

With Bitcoin miners continuing to sell, reports of additional supply pressure from China, and key technical levels now failing, downside risk is increasing. If this breakdown follows through, we expect Bitcoin to move toward the $75K region, with altcoins likely underperforming alongside it.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Bearish Sentiment

We had a short burst of optimism after the Fed signaled the end of QT, cut rates, and added some liquidity to the system. For a moment, it looked like that might be enough to turn things around.

❌ That optimism didn’t last.

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $94K, then quickly gave it all back. Since then, price action has slipped back into bearish territory, suggesting the move was more relief rally than real trend change.

Now traders are preparing for more downside. Attention has shifted to the Bank of Japan, a strengthening yen, growing concerns around an AI-driven equity bubble, and the broader risk that liquidity tightens again.

There’s also increasing discussion around whether this cycle has already peaked. The idea that the four-year cycle may be ending is no longer being dismissed.

🎯 A retest of the $75K area looks increasingly likely in the weeks or months ahead. This level matters. The last major pullback found support around $74K, and a break below that would mark a lower low, a strong bearish signal.

$75K is also close to Michael Saylor’s average Bitcoin purchase price, which adds psychological weight to the level and makes it one many traders will be watching closely.

🔑 For now, patience is key. Chasing short-term trades in this environment carries more risk than reward. Sitting back and letting the market fully unwind may be the smarter move.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Ripple Taps Wormhole to Expand RLUSD Stablecoin to Layer 2 Blockchains
Ripple is partnering with Wormhole to launch its $1 billion RLUSD stablecoin on Layer 2 chains like Optimism and Base next year, aiming for institutional utility and a unique dual regulatory structure.

Visa Launches 'Stablecoins Advisory Practice' to Help Businesses Build Strategies 
Visa has launched a stablecoins advisory service for banks and enterprises to guide strategy and implementation, building on its $3.5 billion stablecoin settlement run rate and favorable regulatory clarity.

JPMorgan Launches Tokenized Money-Market Fund on Ethereum 
JPMorgan Chase introduced its first tokenized money-market fund, MONY, on the Ethereum network, seeded with $100 million to offer qualified investors on-chain yield from short-term debt securities.

UK Aims to Regulate Crypto Like Financial Products by 2027 
The UK Treasury plans to enact legislation by 2027 to regulate crypto assets under the same framework as traditional financial products, aiming to increase transparency, consumer protection, and market certainty.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Why is Bitcoin Dropping? (15.12.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's current price drop is not a surprise or an anomaly, but rather the highly predictable start of a new bear market cycle. He concludes that the bull market top is in, and this phase is completely normal, driven by historical cycles and market apathy.

Key Points

• This Time is Not Different: The clearest reason for the drop is history. Bitcoin has topped in Q4 of the post-halving year four cycles in a row (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The length of the current cycle (1,062 days) is almost exactly the same as the prior two.

• Apathy and Missing Retail: The drop is largely due to market apathy. Unlike previous cycles, retail investors never fully returned, which is why there was no massive "alt season". This period of high price, low interest looks less like the 2021 top and more like the 2019 slump when Bitcoin topped on widespread exhaustion.

• The Stock Market Holds the Key: For Bitcoin to exit its slump, there often needs to be weakness in lower risk assets like the stock market. Since the S&P 500 is still near all time highs, the Federal Reserve has no reason to restart aggressive money printing (QE), leaving Bitcoin without its usual liquidity boost.

• Technical Target is the 200-Week Average: Technically, when Bitcoin drops below the 50-week moving average after a long bull run, it typically moves down to the 200-week moving average. Based on historical patterns, Cowen predicts this target will likely be reached sometime before the summer of 2026.

The Takeaway

The bear market has begun, which should not cause fear, but patience. The video emphasizes that all the real, life changing money is made in the bear market by accumulating when things are boring. Historically, the most effective strategy is to buy Bitcoin at the end of the midterm year (2026) and wait three years.

CoinBureau – This Is A Bear Market! Why We Could Be Heading Lower | Markus Thielen (15.12.2025 Summary)

Markus Thielen, CEO and Head of Research at 10X Research, believes that Bitcoin is currently in a confirmed bear market. The only question is how long it will last. His outlook suggests prices could head lower, citing a combination of poor market structure, underwhelming institutional flows, and macro factors that lack the necessary tailwinds.

Key Reasons for Bitcoin's Drop/Bear Market

Thielen presents several arguments as to why Bitcoin is dropping and why the market is bearish:

1. Poor Market Structure & Capital:

   • Missing Retail & Low Leverage: Retail activity (spot volumes) and high leverage have been consistently low, characterizing this as a Wall Street-led cycle without the necessary micro-structure support.

   • Underperforming Institutional Inflows: Inflows to Bitcoin ETFs are lower this year, and much of the institutional investment is currently underwater, making it difficult for traders to secure bigger risk allocations for the next year.

   • Price Capping: The increase in options trading is driving extensive call selling to extract yield. This activity effectively caps Bitcoin's price, as the focus is on harvesting premium rather than betting on an open-ended upside.

2. Misleading Macro & Liquidity:

   • Liquidity Narrative is Flawed: The popular theory that global M2 (money supply) will automatically pump Bitcoin is flawed, as the relationship is not linear and much of the reported rise in "global liquidity" was due to the US dollar weakening, not a net cash infusion.

   • Negative Rate Cut Precedent: The Fed's third rate cut in a cycle has historically led to a pause, and in both 2019 and 2024, Bitcoin fell significantly in the following 30 days, suggesting more short-term pain.

   • Recession Warning: The unemployment rate is now above its 12-month moving average, a rare historical signal that typically precedes a recession and a period of pain for risk assets before any major stimulus arrives.

The Takeaway

Thielen stresses that the market depends on crypto-native liquidity (like stablecoin supply) which he views as "a lot more relevant" than broad macro metrics. Since the big shift needed to go from bearish to bullish is not evident and performance has not been there, it is difficult for Bitcoin to find its footing.

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