Calm Before The Storm

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Crypto in Limbo: Calm Before the Catalyst?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! It’s a quiet day in the crypto markets, but under the surface, a few developments are starting to heat up.

⏳️ Range-Bound and Waiting for Powell

Bitcoin continues to hover between $83K and $85K, with little volatility on the surface. But beneath that calm, some early signals are stirring.

📈 BTC Inflows Flip Positive
After weeks of outflow, Bitcoin saw $76 million in net inflows yesterday, which could be an early sign of a local bottom forming. Still, it’s too soon to confirm a trend reversal, especially with sentiment remaining fragile.

📉 Ethereum ETFs See Continued Outflows
While BTC is showing slight strength, Ethereum remains under pressure. ETH ETFs continue bleeding, suggesting waning institutional interest for now.

🇨🇳 China’s Crypto Selloff Rumors Raise Eyebrows

Reports are surfacing that local governments in China are seeking ways to offload seized crypto assets, using private offshore entities to convert coins to cash and fill budget gaps.

• China currently holds an estimated 194,000 BTC (~$16B), second only to the U.S.
  

• Trading crypto remains illegal in China, so questions are raised about how China will handle these seized assets.
  

• For now, it's a speculation. But if it becomes reality and China decides to offload its whole BTC stack, the market could face serious downside pressure.

🇺🇸 Another Setback for State-Level Bitcoin Strategy

In the U.S., Oklahoma’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act was narrowly rejected in a 6–5 Senate committee vote.

• The bill would’ve allowed the state to allocate reserves into Bitcoin and other digital assets with market caps above $500B.

That’s now six states declining Bitcoin reserve proposals. Still, 18 more states have active bills pending.

🏥 Corporate Bitcoin Adoption: Semler Steps In

Medical tech firm Semler Scientific filed an S-3 with the SEC for a $500M securities offering, with stated intent to possibly acquire Bitcoin.

It’s a modest but positive signal showing that corporate BTC interest is still alive and well.

🗣️ Powell Watch: Fed Chair to Speak Today

All eyes are on Jerome Powell, who’s scheduled to speak later today. With uncertainty rising, investors are hoping for hints on:

• Interest rate cuts

• End of Quantitative Tightening

If Powell leans dovish, we could see a risk-on rally. If not, more sideways chop is likely.

💬 Bottom Line:

Markets are in limbo. Capital preservation is key until we get clearer direction from Powell or macro catalysts. The mood is cautious, and that’s probably wise.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Crypto X on Standby

The community feels... muted. There's no real conviction yet, but everyone’s watching closely.

📉 Alts Stay Weak, BTC Holds Up

Bitcoin is showing relative strength, while altcoins continue to lag - a typical pattern during risk-off phases.

🌏 China + US Tensions Simmer

The China-US trade war narrative has faded a bit from market impact, but it still lingers. Bad news is being digested more calmly now - a sign that fear might be losing its grip.

📉 Volatility Index Falling

The Volatility Index (VIX) is dropping, which often signals cooling fear and the potential for a more stable base to form.

💵 M2 Money Supply Growing Again

Liquidity is slowly creeping back into the system. Historically, this leads to bullish pressure for Bitcoin and risk assets, but only if the Fed doesn’t slam the brakes.

👀 All Eyes on Powell

Many traders are positioning for a Quantitative Easing reboot, betting that Powell might open the door to risk-on rotation into altcoins.

But the risk is real: any hawkish surprises could send markets lower in a hurry.

💡 In times like this, being flat or cautious isn’t bearish - it’s strategic. Let the signal come to you.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Mantra CEO pledges to burn tokens after OM crash
Following a 90% crash in OM’s price, Mantra’s CEO commits to burning his allocation and launching a broader supply reduction plan.

South Korean candidate promises Trump-style crypto reform
Presidential hopeful Hong Joon-pyo vows to deregulate the crypto sector and invest heavily in blockchain and emerging tech.

Oklahoma kills Bitcoin reserve bill in Senate vote
The state’s attempt to establish a BTC reserve fails by a single vote, as Arizona and New Hampshire continue to push ahead.

Semler Scientific files $500M offering to fund more Bitcoin buys
The healthcare firm eyes another BTC acquisition round while settling a $30M federal fraud case with help from Coinbase loans.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – The Bitcoin Dominance Train Continues (16.04.2025)

Key Take: Bitcoin dominance will likely keep rising until the Fed ends Quantitative Tightening (QT).

Cowen remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin dominance. His stance is simple: as long as the Fed keeps tightening liquidity, capital will continue flowing out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. He believes Bitcoin offers the best risk-adjusted return in the current macro environment.

🔍 Main Outlook Points:

• BTC vs Alts: No Contest (For Now)
  Altcoins keep bleeding against Bitcoin. Even when individual alts outperform short term, the broader trend favors Bitcoin, especially during macro tightening.
  

• Quantitative Tightening Is the Key Pivot
  Cowen says he’ll reconsider his dominance thesis only after QT ends and altcoin/BTC pairs reach range lows. Neither has happened yet.
  

• Dominance Target: 66%+
  His conservative call was 60%, but now that we’re there, he sees room for dominance to climb to 66% and beyond, especially if stablecoin dominance also increases.
  

• Alt Season? Not Yet
  He argues alt season typically begins from a place of maximum pain. We're not there. Until alt/BTC pairs hit true lows, he’s fading the “alt season is here” crowd.
  

• ETH, SOL, Others: Still Weak
  ETH/BTC is back to multi-year lows. SOL/BTC is following the same pattern. Cowen reminds us these moves aren't new – they’ve played out before and likely will again.
  

• A Sobering Reminder
  Many have tried to time altcoin rallies, but sticking with Bitcoin would’ve outperformed most. His message: don’t chase noise. BTC is the safe, logical bet in this part of the cycle.

Cowen’s Bottom Line:
Bitcoin dominance is rising because capital seeks safety. Unless something major shifts (Fed policy, BTC trend break, or alt capitulation), he expects BTC to keep leading. This isn’t anti-altcoin – it’s just a recognition of where risk and opportunity stand today.

CryptoRUs – How the US Plans on Buying Bitcoin (16.04.2025)

Key Take: The US may start buying Bitcoin using tariff revenue and gold reserves, and the market is vastly underestimating how strong BTC really is.

George is upbeat, energized, and optimistic. His message is crystal clear: Bitcoin is showing massive strength, and the potential catalysts building up could ignite a fast return to $100K+.

🚀 Main Outlook Points:

• US Could Start Accumulating BTC Soon
  Based on a recent interview, George reports that the US is considering using new tariff revenue to buy Bitcoin, without touching taxpayer money. There’s also discussion of selling part of the national gold reserve to acquire BTC.
  

• Macro Headwinds Slowing BTC… For Now
  He points out that despite global economic fears (tariffs, inflation, rates), BTC is still hovering near all-time highs. In his words: “Bitcoin is down but never out.”
  

• $7 Billion in Shorts at $90K
  George believes that once BTC hits $90K, a wave of short liquidations could fuel a sharp rally, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $100K in days, not months.
  

• Rate Cut = Catalyst
  While a May rate cut is unlikely, George speculates that if it happens, the market will explode. He sees June as a more realistic target for a pivot, and that alone could fuel a new leg up.
  

• Ethereum Falling Behind
  He thinks Ethereum may have lost too much ground to L1 competitors like Solana. The ETH Foundation’s late push for scaling improvements might not be enough.
  

• BTC vs. The Rest
  George emphasizes Bitcoin’s resilience. It’s outperformed tech, it’s withstood macro chaos, and it keeps climbing. He believes Bitcoin is becoming a true global reserve asset.

George’s Bottom Line:
The world is starting to wake up to Bitcoin’s power — governments, institutions, and individuals alike. While the market is hesitating, the groundwork is being laid for the next parabolic move. For George, Bitcoin at $200K by year-end is not a fantasy — it’s a possibility.

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