Markets on the Defensive

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Pressure Building

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Crypto is weak because money is getting tighter across the world.

Bond yields in the US and Japan keep moving higher. That means borrowing costs are rising and debt is getting harder to manage. When this happens, investors pull back from risky assets. Crypto usually feels this before stocks do, and that is exactly what we are seeing now.

The job market is also slowing. Companies are not hiring much anymore. Instead, they are cutting hours, pushing people into part time work, and letting short contracts end. Goods related areas like manufacturing, transport, and temp work are shrinking. This tells us demand is cooling and growth is losing speed.

Bitcoin is reacting to all of this by staying heavy. It is not breaking higher because the environment does not support risk taking right now. Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin, and altcoins are under the most pressure since they depend the most on easy money.

Nothing is breaking yet, but the system is clearly under stress, and crypto is responding first.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Cautious and Defensive

More people are talking about protecting capital rather than chasing upside. Bitcoin not going up while gold rises tells the story clearly. Investors are hedging risk, not looking for growth. Stocks are still holding up for now, but many see that as delay, not strength.

There is no panic, but there is less confidence. Traders are watching bonds, central banks, and the economy closely, knowing that these slow, quiet periods often come before bigger moves.

For now, the dominant feeling is patience. Waiting, managing risk, and staying flexible is where most people are mentally as the market looks for its next clear direction.

👀 Our Current outlook

• Crypto remains under pressure in January, driven largely by tax-loss harvesting.

• A potential relief rally could emerge in Q1 2026, with Bitcoin attempting a retest of the $100k level.

• What follows will depend on whether BTC can successfully reclaim that level or gets rejected.

• For now, Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains bullish as long as price holds above $74k.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Spot XRP ETFs Surpass $1 Billion in Cumulative Inflows, Outshining BTC and ETH Funds 
U.S. spot XRP ETFs hit $1 billion in cumulative inflows on Monday, demonstrating strong institutional demand for altcoins, even as spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reported massive single-day net outflows.

Visa Launches Stablecoin Settlement in US via Circle's USDC on Solana 
Visa has launched USDC stablecoin settlement for its U.S. banking network on the Solana blockchain, with Cross River Bank and Lead Bank as initial participants, enabling faster, seven-day settlement windows.

FCA Finds UK Crypto Ownership Fell to 8%, Despite High Public Awareness 
UK crypto ownership fell from 12% to 8% in 2025, according to the FCA, though remaining investors are holding larger portfolios; 73% rely on centralized exchanges and many desire financial protection through regulation.

PancakeSwap-Backed Prediction Platform Probable to Launch on BNB Chain PancakeSwap and YZi Labs are launching Probable, a zero-fee on-chain prediction markets platform on BNB Chain, aiming to attract users with seamless USDT conversion and UMA's Optimistic Oracle verification.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: A Classic Case of The Bear Market Blues (16.12.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin is deep into a "classic case of the Bear Market Blues," a phase driven by apathy rather than euphoria. He cautions against viewing it strictly through the four-year cycle and suggests deferring to the 2019 market pattern, as both coincided with the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).

• Sentiment & Cycle: This bear market differs from previous crashes (2014, 2018, 2022) because it is coming off of apathy, not euphoria and an "alt season," aligning it closely with the 2019 slump. The current market top aligns with prior four-year cycle tops and the end of QT, just as in 2019, where the price continued to drop for several months after QT concluded.

• Bearish Base Case: Cowen's most likely outcome is for Bitcoin to sweep the prior macro low (go below $74K) by the end of the year or early next year. The recent relief rally was weak, making the sweep more probable than a direct rally.

• Price Path & Target: Following the low sweep, the price will likely experience a counter-trend rally back to the Bull Market Support Band, forming a lower high, and eventually leading to a deeper drop into the summer. The 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is always a factor in midterm years, aligns with a price target of approximately $60K to $70K by summer.

• Timing & Macro: Following the 2019 tracking, he expects the macro headwinds to continue for another 100 to 120 days. A true breakout would require major catalysts like the stock market dropping or a change in Fed leadership, as stocks are currently near all-time highs.

The Takeaway

Cowen emphasizes that investors must "trade the market you have, not the market that you want". While the bear market is difficult, the current phase is normal, and investors should be open-minded to the price sweeping the low. He reminds viewers that the real money is made in the bear markets by sticking around and buying opportunities, setting up the foundation for the next cycle.

1000x Podcast – When Do We Buy, Global M2, Does Crypto Need A Catalyst, & Owning Your L’s (16.12.2025 Summary)

The hosts of the 1000x Podcast discuss the current market slump, attributing the volatile December to a widespread lack of risk tolerance among traders who are either protecting gains or are "tapped out."

• Immediate Risk: Tax-Loss Selling. With Bitcoin trading below its crucial yearly opening price of $94,000, the risk of tax-loss harvesting by the end of the year is high, creating selling pressure that is not seen in strong-performing assets like the NASDAQ.

• The Four-Year Cycle is "Over." The historical four-year Bitcoin cycle pattern is broken, as 2025 is down 4% year-to-date. The market must move past this old mentality.

• Global Liquidity Misconception: While global M2 money supply is rising, the hosts argue this isn't flowing into Bitcoin because the currency debasement is primarily originating from "Eastern M2" (e.g., China). This flow is translating into pumps for gold and silver as debasement hedges, while Western M2 is stagnant.

• The Value Zone: Current price action is driving Bitcoin toward a critical "demand zone" or "value zone," defined as the band between approximately $88,000 and $74,000. This range represents where organic demand existed prior to inorganic hype flows (like DATs). Altcoins are expected to be "totally nuked" if this zone is tested.

• Altcoin Problem: The altcoin narrative has shifted; it is no longer "liquid venture" where every token goes up. Investors are realizing that most altcoins are "shitty companies" with poor economics, leading to carnage that is weighing on the entire crypto complex.

The Takeaway

Despite the short-term negative flows from OG sellers and year-end pressures, the hosts maintain a long-term bullish outlook, asserting that the mega trend for Bitcoin is upwards. They see January as a likely turning point when institutional traders, forced to hunt for returns, re-engage. They conclude that buying Bitcoin in the $74K-$88K demand zone is a strong bet, as it is an underperforming asset being weighed down by temporary reasons, making it preferable to buying high-flying tech stocks or precious metals at their highs.

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