Bitcoin Is At A Crossroads

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Crypto Is Entering Decision Time

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Bitcoin is holding above $70k but geopolitical risks and the Fed could still shake the market. Let’s explore!

Right now crypto is sitting in a very tricky spot and honestly it is one of the hardest environments to trade in.

There are strong signals on both sides of the market.

🟢 On one side, several signals suggest the market may have already found a bottom:

• Bitcoin barely dipped during the recent geopolitical panic

• BTC is now holding above $70k thanks to renewed demand

• Market sentiment and fear levels remain relatively high

⚠️ On the other side, significant risks remain:

• Geopolitical tensions are escalating

• Oil Prices are rising due to that

• Inflation is also creeping higher with today’s PPI numbers which have caused sell offs

🏋️ For now crypto is holding the line, however our bias leans towards the bearish side.

But the next levels matter a lot.

First resistance: $75k
Major resistance zone: $80k to $85k

If Bitcoin clears this range and pushes toward $90k, the market could enter another strong expansion phase.

If BTC breaks higher, altcoins could finally also get room to run..

🤔 But there is a catch.

The number of crypto assets has exploded.

2020: about 18,000 coins
2026: about 38 million coins

🪙 Yes. Millions.

That means capital is spread across a massive number of projects.Because of this, cherry picking the right altcoins is more important than ever.Most coins will simply not capture meaningful liquidity.

There is still a real chance Bitcoin gets rejected. The $75k to $80k zone could act as strong resistance. If that happens, BTC could easily roll over and test lower levels such as $60k and even $50k.

📊 The Fed decision today could add more volatility.

Most traders expect no change in interest rates, so the focus will be on the Fed outlook statement.

Markets will be watching closely for any hints about future policy. Right now the market looks like this.

Bullish signals are building.
But macro risks are still present.

So in the short term?

It is still a coin flip. The next major move will likely be decided around $75k to $80k.

THIS NEWSLETTER IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
OPENWALLET

Next-level security for your digital assets

Experience top security with Open Wallet. Your wallet blends user-friendliness with strong security.

SOCIAL SENTIMENT

SEC Finally Explains How Crypto Is Regulated

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released guidance explaining how U.S. securities laws apply to crypto assets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) agreed with the interpretation and said it will regulate crypto consistently with it.

The goal is to reduce confusion that has existed for years about whether cryptocurrencies are securities.

The SEC is basically saying:

Most crypto tokens themselves are NOT securities.

Instead, some situations involving them can be securities, especially if they are sold as investments.

Example:

• Buying ETH to use on a network → likely not a security

• Buying a token because a company promises profits → could be a security

• Assets confirmed as not securities: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, AVAX, LINK, DOGE, DOT, XLM, LTC, BCH, HBAR, XTZ, SHIB, APT

📚️ The SEC now groups crypto assets into clearer types:

• Digital commodities: Crypto used like commodities (similar idea to gold or oil).

• Digital collectibles: Things like NFTs used for art or collectibles.

• Digital tools: Tokens used to access software, networks, or services.

• Stablecoins: Tokens designed to stay close to a fixed value like $1.

• Digital securities: Tokens that function like stocks or investment contracts.

This helps regulators decide who regulates what. This announcement helps clarify the split:

• SEC: regulates crypto that acts like securities or investment contracts

• CFTC: regulates crypto that acts like commodities

So some crypto markets fall under SEC, others under CFTC. For years the crypto industry complained about unclear rules in the U.S.

This guidance is meant to:

• give developers and companies clearer rules

• reduce lawsuits and confusion

• prepare for future crypto laws from Congress

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Mastercard to Acquire Stablecoin Infrastructure Firm BVNK for Up to $1.8B
Mastercard agreed to acquire stablecoin infrastructure provider BVNK in a deal worth up to $1.8 billion to connect blockchain payments with its global network.

PayPal Expands PYUSD Stablecoin to 70 Markets
PayPal expanded access to its PYUSD stablecoin to users in 70 markets, enabling faster cross-border payments and broader global adoption.

Crypto ETF Adoption Still Early as Advisors Assess Allocations
Morgan Stanley says crypto ETF adoption remains early, with most demand coming from self-directed investors while advisors gradually consider small portfolio allocations.

Hyperliquid’s Tokenized Markets Reach $1.43B in Open Interest
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 tokenized markets surpassed $1.43 billion in open interest as traders increasingly use 24/7 markets for equities and commodities.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: An Unfortunate Pattern [Update] (18.03.2026 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen explains why Bitcoin may still face downside despite the recent rally. His main focus is stablecoin dominance, which he sees as a key signal for the broader crypto market.

Key Points

• Cowen tracks stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) as a measure of risk appetite. Rising dominance usually means investors are moving money out of crypto.

• Two months ago he predicted dominance would pull back and then jump toward ~12–13%, which already happened.

• Historically, after a breakout, the first drop is often a higher low before another move higher, not the end of the trend.

• Because of this pattern, he believes stablecoin dominance could rise further to around 14–15%, which would be bearish for crypto.

• Bitcoin may be repeating past cycles: a February bottom followed by a March rally that becomes a lower high before another decline.

• He also notes Bitcoin has underperformed gold, energy stocks, and the S&P 500 this year, showing capital rotation to safer assets.

Final Takeaway
Cowen’s base case is that the crypto market is still in a mid-cycle bear phase, with stablecoin dominance rising and Bitcoin likely forming a lower high before the next major bull cycle.

Paul Barron – CLARITY Act in Danger by Banks? (18.03.2026 Summary)

Paul Barron examines whether U.S. banks are trying to slow down or weaken the CLARITY Act, a key crypto market structure bill that could shape the future of digital assets in the United States.

Key Points

• Banks are lobbying against parts of the bill, especially stablecoin rewards, because they fear losing deposits to crypto platforms.

• Crypto firms argue the bill would give Americans better financial options and fairer returns compared to traditional banking.

• The White House is pushing for clear crypto market rules to make the U.S. a global leader in digital assets.

• Lawmakers are negotiating a compromise that could be finalized within weeks, covering stablecoins, DeFi rules, and crypto classifications.

• Despite the political fight, financial institutions are already preparing crypto services, expecting the industry to grow.

Final Takeaway
Barron frames the debate as a battle between banks trying to protect their deposits and crypto pushing for open financial innovation, with the CLARITY Act at the center of the conflict.

CRYPTO MEMES

HELP US IMPROVE

WE ALSO READ