Crypto’s Global Stress Test

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

A Week of Volatility

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The crypto market is reacting to major developments. Let’s explore them.

This week, crypto markets are reacting to three major developments:

• A Cyberattack linked to the Iran–Israel conflict

• Major progress on U.S. stablecoin regulation

• Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate update.

⚔️ Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Crypto Infrastructure

The ongoing tension between Iran and Israel has now spilled into the crypto sector. Earlier this week, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, was hacked. Nearly 90 million dollars in USDT was stolen and then destroyed on-chain. The attack was claimed by Predatory Sparrow, a group believed to be aligned with Israeli intelligence.

This was not an isolated event. Iran’s Bank Sepah also experienced cyber disruptions recently. In response, Iran began limiting internet access in some regions to protect key systems from further attacks.

The United States has entered the picture, deploying additional military assets to the region. Iran has warned that any direct U.S. involvement will result in retaliation, including potential cyberattacks against American infrastructure. U.S. businesses have been advised to increase cyber defenses.

Market reaction:

• Bitcoin fell to around 102,700$ after the Nobitex attack

• Recovered quickly to around 104,000$

• Volatility remains elevated

🏛️ U.S. Senate Approves GENIUS Act, Advancing Stablecoin Regulation

The GENIUS Act, the first major U.S. federal bill focused on stablecoins, passed in the Senate with a 68 to 30 vote. It now moves to the House, where it is expected to pass before Congress breaks for summer recess.

What the bill includes:

• All stablecoins must be backed one-to-one with U.S. dollars or Treasuries

• Large issuers will undergo regular audits

• Anti-money laundering compliance is mandatory

• User funds receive legal protection in bankruptcy cases

• Big Tech firms face strict conditions before issuing any digital currency

This legislation sets a clear path for stablecoin regulation, offering long-awaited legal clarity. With over 60% of crypto transactions relying on stablecoins, this move is expected to bring in institutional adoption.

Market response:

• Circle, the issuer of USDC, saw its stock rise by almost 8%

• Financial institutions and retailers are reportedly preparing their own digital dollar products

• This marks a turning point for U.S. crypto policy, transforming stablecoins from a regulatory gray area into a structured financial tool.

🕒 Federal Reserve Rate Decision Coming Today

Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest policy update. While no interest rate change is expected, markets are closely watching two things: the updated dot plot, which shows how many rate cuts officials expect this year, and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone during the press conference.

Two scenarios traders are preparing for:

• If the Fed signals multiple rate cuts this year, crypto and risk assets may rally. Bitcoin could retest 110,000$ 

• If the Fed maintains a cautious outlook, Bitcoin could remain flat or see modest declines as the dollar strengthens.

Current market positioning:

• Bitcoin is holding around 104,000$

• Many traders are reducing positions ahead of the announcement

• A volatility spike is expected following the Fed update

• Although rates may not change today, the tone of the Fed’s messaging will likely shape risk sentiment for weeks to come.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

🤔 Uncertainty Increases

With market conditions growing increasingly uncertain, we are currently avoiding altcoins. Many traders are also in risk-off mode ahead of this evening’s FOMC announcement, which is expected to be a major volatility trigger.

🐻 Current Positioning:

We are leaning slightly bearish heading into the summer. Most major coins are showing signs of structural weakness, suggesting that a deeper correction may be developing.

🎯 Key Dip Targets We’re Watching:

• Bitcoin (BTC): 98,000 to 100,000$

• Ethereum (ETH): 2,200$

• XRP: 1.80$

At this stage, we are focusing exclusively on majors. Smaller altcoins remain too volatile and illiquid to trade effectively in the current environment.

Strategy Outlook:

Patience is key. We recommend holding off on high-risk trades until there’s more clarity in the market. The direction we get from the Federal Reserve this evening will likely set the tone for the coming weeks.

All eyes are on the FOMC. Stay disciplined, stay focused.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Thailand Waives Crypto Taxes to Lure Global Investors
Thailand will remove capital gains taxes on crypto trades from 2025 to 2029 in a bid to attract international crypto activity.

Chinese Giant JD.com Pursues Global Stablecoin Licenses
JD.com plans to acquire stablecoin licenses in major markets to cut cross-border payment costs and revive its global growth.

Prenetics Enters Bitcoin Game with $20M Treasury Move
Healthcare firm Prenetics adopted a bold bitcoin treasury strategy, acquiring $20M in BTC with ambitions to lead in crypto-health convergence.

Iran’s Nobitex Exchange Hacked for $80M in Political Cyberattack
Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex suffered an $80M exploit, with a pro-Israel hacker group claiming responsibility and hinting at political motives.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Coin Bureau – BlackRock Is Quietly Taking Over Bitcoin... Here’s How! (18.06.2025 Summary)

Bitcoin is supposed to be controlled by no one, but big financial companies like BlackRock are trying to gain control over it — and they might succeed.

🧩 How They’re Doing It:

1. Investing in Miners:

   • Publicly traded mining companies (mainly in the US) are growing and are influenced by government rules.

   • Big investors like BlackRock own shares in these companies and can influence how they operate (for example, censoring transactions or changing the way Bitcoin works).

2. Funding Developers:

   • Asset managers are starting to pay Bitcoin developers, which could influence how the Bitcoin code evolves.

3. Buying Lots of Bitcoin (BTC):

   • Through Bitcoin ETFs (like BlackRock’s), these companies are accumulating huge amounts of BTC.

   • Some ETFs even let BlackRock choose which version of Bitcoin to support if there’s ever a split (fork).

⚠️ Why This Is a Problem:

• These moves could allow big companies to push changes to Bitcoin (like moving to proof-of-stake, which could make Bitcoin easier to control).

• Decentralization is at risk if one side gains too much control.

🛡️ Who’s Pushing Back:

• Tether (the stablecoin company) is secretly becoming a huge Bitcoin miner and BTC buyer.

• Other crypto-friendly companies like Bitwise and VanEck are funding developers to keep Bitcoin decentralized.

• Tether is also investing in energy and mining to protect Bitcoin’s independence.

🔁 Tug-of-War Dynamic:

• BlackRock vs Tether:
  Both sides are powerful and trying to shape Bitcoin’s future.
  This balance of power may keep Bitcoin stable and push the price higher, as long as neither side "wins" completely.

🔮 What Might Happen:

• If BlackRock wins: Bitcoin could become more centralized and corporate.

• If Tether wins: Bitcoin might stay more true to its decentralized roots.

• If either fails financially, the other could gain too much power.

• Governments and other countries may also join this power struggle soon.

💡 Final Thought:

Bitcoin is strong not because no one controls it, but because many powerful players are trying to control it, and none have fully succeeded yet.

Ivan on Tech – BITCOIN: THIS IS BAD!!! 🚨 (18.06.2025 Summary)

Ivan says Bitcoin is extremely strong, even in the face of scary headlines about war and global tension. Despite panic in the news, BTC has barely moved, which shows market maturity and confidence.

He emphasizes:

Ivan believes:

• BTC could dip to $100K or $89K, but it’s still in a bullish trend

• React to the market, don’t try to predict it

• Long term, Bitcoin is going to a million

He also warns about US banks taking on more risk and highlights stablecoins as key to future adoption. The new Genius Act could massively grow stablecoin use, helping both crypto and the US dollar.

Finally, Ivan is bullish on Solana for real-world use and sees potential in DeFi replacing traditional banks, especially in emerging markets.

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