Relief Bounce Loading?

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Did We Hit a Bottom?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Hope you’re holding up well in these conditions. Let’s take a look at what the market is setting up for today.

After a brutal stretch of price action Bitcoin has finally tapped our expected range of 88k to 90k.

Since last week we still haven’t seen a significant bounce of more than 3% but we think the current region offers a solid structure for a short term move upward.

So what now ❓️ 

This week BTC could retest some key levels starting with 94k to 95k and potentially 98k to 100k however the downtrend will likely resume afterwards.

📆 Tomorrow also brings several events that could add volatility to the market:

• US Trade Balance data

• FOMC meeting minutes

• Nvidia Q3 2025 earnings

Overall we believe 89k could have been the local bottom and a relief move is possible this week especially if tomorrow’s data leans positive. Still, the broader trend remains down so caution is essential. 🐻 

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Is Crypto Innovation Fading?

A recent theme we keep hearing across the crypto community is that the flow of new talent into web3 feels extremely limited. Most of the strong newcomers are focused on building trading infrastructure such Hyperliquid and Lighter, which leaves a gap. There are a lot of tools being built, but very few new products or assets for those tools to support.

We’re also seeing growing frustration with how VCs are deploying capital. The biggest raises lately have almost all gone to trading infrastructure. Many in the community feel this creates a loop where trading platforms end up trading other trading platforms, which starts to look circular instead of productive.

Another point people keep bringing up is how hard it has become to attract solid web2 founders. They see weaker funding, slower innovation, and a reputation hit for joining crypto. Even VCs are dealing with lower LP commitments during a strong BTC cycle, showing how little excitement remains for alt projects.

⁉️ This leads to a question we hear more often now: why would top founders choose crypto at this moment when other sectors look more promising?

A growing view in the community is that the industry needs to shift focus. Instead of trying to convince more people to build crypto native products, many believe the next real growth wave will come from bringing established real world companies on chain through tokenization. People see this as one of the few ways to break out of a market that risks trading the same ideas over and over again.

This is where sentiment has been moving recently.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Cloudflare Outage Disrupts Crypto Platforms Worldwide
A global Cloudflare outage took down major crypto front-ends, affecting exchanges, explorers and DeFi apps, highlighting how dependent the industry is on centralized cloud providers.

Fidelity Launches Solana ETF With Staking Feature
Fidelity introduced FSOL, a Solana ETF with built-in staking rewards, joining Bitwise and Grayscale as institutional demand for regulated Solana products continues to grow.

Mt. Gox Moves Nearly $1B in Bitcoin Ahead of Repayments
Mt. Gox shifted 10,608 BTC to new addresses, a move that often precedes creditor distributions, raising speculation as repayment deadlines continue to be pushed back.

El Salvador Makes Record 1,090 BTC Purchase During Dip
El Salvador added its largest ever single-day BTC amount, though questions remain about whether the buy complies with IMF loan restrictions on new Bitcoin acquisitions.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: The Bulls Vs. The Bears (18.11.2025 Summary)

In this video, Benjamin Cowen takes a balanced approach, laying out both the bull and bear cases for Bitcoin heading into 2026. His focus is on time-based indicators, past cycles, and the current market's lack of euphoria. While he doesn’t claim to know the future, he believes history offers some strong clues.

Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points

• Bearish signs from history – Every previous Bitcoin cycle topped in Q4 of the post-halving year, and we just closed a weekly candle below the 50-week moving average, which has historically signaled the start of a bear market.

• No signs of euphoria – Unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle lacks retail hype. Social interest is low, and Cowen compares the current environment to 2019 - a slower, more apathetic top.

• Possible 50% correction – Without extreme euphoria, Cowen argues a more modest 50% pullback is likely, putting Bitcoin’s bottom between $60K and $70K in 2026, aligning with the 200-week moving average.

• Macro still matters – Even if QT ends in December, Cowen says we might still see pain first. The Fed may hold off on aggressive rate cuts until after Powell leaves in mid-2026.

• Bulls aren’t out of the game – If Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week MA soon, there’s still time for a December rally. But if not, a drawn-out correction is likely.

Final Takeaway
Cowen sees valid arguments on both sides. But from a time-based and macro lens, he leans toward a 2026 bear market with a moderate correction - not a crash. Whether bulls or bears "win" may come down to how the market digests this next phase of monetary policy.

1000x Podcast – Bitcoin Breaks $95k, Crypto’s Valuation Problem, & The Path To Real On-Chain Users (18.11.2025 Summary)

The 1000x team dives into why crypto - especially outside of Bitcoin - feels broken. Despite headlines about adoption and infrastructure growth, valuations don’t reflect reality. Santi argues that the speculative dream is fading, altcoin fundamentals are weak, and many tokens remain wildly overpriced compared to real economic activity.

Key Points

• Valuations are unsustainable – Ethereum trades at a $400B valuation on $1–2B in non-recurring fees. Compared to AI stocks or traditional tech, the numbers don’t justify the price.

• Crypto is no longer the main narrative – AI has taken over investor attention. Crypto lacks real traction beyond speculation.

• The dream vs. the revenue – Most altcoins still run on hype, not cash flows. Projects like EOS show even major L1s can fade when value isn’t sustained.

• ETH is losing ground – Ethereum’s value capture is getting worse as L2s siphon off activity and fees. Many investors prefer traditional stocks or AI bets over ETH.

• Bitcoin is different – BTC remains a macro asset, less volatile, and still seen as digital gold. Institutional flows and ETFs support its position.

• Where’s the growth? – Active on-chain users haven’t meaningfully increased. Until that changes, it’s hard to support a $1.5T valuation for non-BTC crypto.

Final Takeaway

Bitcoin might be fine, but the rest of the crypto market is in valuation denial. Without real users, revenue, or fresh narratives, altcoins face a major reset - and that could be healthy in the long run.

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