Struggling to Follow Through

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

False Breaks, Real Weakness

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market is still struggling to find its footing, and price action continues to disappoint.

Bitcoin made another push toward $90k but couldn’t hold it. What looked like a breakout quickly turned into a fake move as price rolled over and fell back into the mid-$80k range and now trying to go up again.

This keeps the same pattern intact:

• Quick pops higher, followed by fast sell-offs.

• Right now, it’s easier for price to go down than up. There’s more action waiting below the market than above it, so pushes lower tend to stick, while moves higher quickly run out of steam.

Altcoins are in worse shape. Most continue to bleed lower with only short, weak bounces in between. Ethereum is holding up better than the rest and may be trying to stabilize, but nothing is confirmed yet.

Until key levels are reclaimed, it’s too early to call a bottom. One standout is Monero (XMR), which has been holding its ground better than most and continues to show relative strength while other alts struggle.

Outside of crypto, the backdrop isn’t helping. Stocks, especially tech and AI, have been selling off hard. Rising yields, tighter financial conditions, and global uncertainty are keeping investors cautious. In this kind of environment, risky assets usually stay under pressure, and crypto is no exception.

⚠️ Nothing is fully breaking down yet, but the market remains weak and vulnerable.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Quiet, Cautious, and Sitting on Hands

The mood across crypto is calm but disengaged. People aren’t panicking, they’re just not excited. After multiple failed rallies, most traders have stopped chasing moves and are choosing to wait instead.

Attention is narrowing. Bitcoin and Ethereum still matter, but many altcoins are being ignored altogether.

• A lot of traders have accepted that most of the market simply isn’t worth trading right now.

• Memecoins and high-risk plays have lost their appeal, with little appetite for speculation.

There’s also a strong “show me first” mindset. Even traders who believe the long-term outlook is positive aren’t willing to act until price clearly turns. Until then, capital stays on the sidelines.

For now, the dominant approach is simple: stay patient, stay light, and wait for the market to prove it’s ready to move again.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

SEC Says Broker-Dealers Must Maintain Crypto Private Keys for Customer Protection 
New SEC guidance clarifies that broker-dealers only have "physical possession" of crypto securities if they hold exclusive access to private keys, requiring strict new policies for blockchain risk management.

Hyper Foundation Proposes $1 Billion Token Burn to Clean Up HYPE Metrics 
The Hyper Foundation is asking for a validator vote to officially burn nearly $1 billion in HYPE tokens held in its automated buyback fund, a move aimed at correcting "distorted" market cap data.

Federal Reserve Withdraws Restrictive 2023 Policy on 'Novel' Crypto Banking 
In a major win for firms like Custodia Bank, the Fed has rescinded its restrictive 2023 "novel activities" policy, allowing uninsured state member banks to apply for crypto banking permissions on a case-by-case basis.

Coinbase Expands into Stocks and Prediction Markets in 'Everything Exchange' Push 
Coinbase has officially launched zero-commission stock trading, prediction markets via Kalshi, and integrated Solana DEX trading, aiming to become a single, 24/7 financial hub for both traditional and digital assets.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

CoinBureau – MSCI Will REMOVE Microstrategy!! What It Means For BTC!? (18.12.2025 Summary)

MicroStrategy (MSTR) faces potential exclusion from MSCI global equity indexes. A new proposal targets "Digital Asset Treasury" companies (DATs), suggesting they be removed if crypto exceeds 50% of their total assets, as they may act more like investment funds than operating businesses.

• Forced Outflows: Removal would trigger mandatory selling by ETFs and index funds. Estimates suggest $2.8 billion in immediate selling pressure, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow MSCI's lead.

• MSTR’s Defense: Michael Saylor’s team argues the rule is "arbitrary" and warns it could harm US national security by stifling Bitcoin-based financial innovation.

• Funding Model Risk: MSTR buys Bitcoin by selling its stock at a premium. If forced selling kills this premium (NAV), the company’s "Bitcoin machine" becomes much less efficient and more costly.

• Market Sentiment: While MSTR has enough cash to avoid selling its own Bitcoin for nearly two years, the removal would be a major "risk-off" signal, potentially dragging down Bitcoin's price through negative headlines.

• Key Dates: The consultation ends on December 31st, 2024, with a final verdict due January 15th, 2026. Any actual rebalancing would take place in February 2026.

The Takeaway

This is a high-stakes clash between institutional rules and the emerging crypto economy. While the potential for billions in forced selling is real, the market may have already "priced in" much of this risk during the recent price slide.

Ivan On Tech – BIG RECOVERY IN JANUARY?! (18.12.2025 Summary)

Ivan on Tech analyzes the current market "bloodbath," noting that many popular altcoins have dropped 80–90% over the last 90 days. He warns that while a relief rally in January is possible, significant hurdles remain before a true recovery.

• The Tax Loss Harvesting Flush: The end of December is seeing heavy sell pressure as investors dump coins down 90% (e.g., Celestia, EigenLayer) to claim tax deductions. This pressure could ease in January, potentially providing some relief.

• The "Tom Lee Incentive": Ivan argues that Bitmine CEO Tom Lee is currently a "permabull" on CNBC to secure a $100 million compensation package at a shareholder meeting on January 15th. Once this is approved, Ivan expects Lee to become much more conservative and "calm" to protect the company's capital.

• The "Minus 70%" Trap: Ivan warns against buying assets just because they are down 70%. He explains that if an asset down 70% drops to minus 90%, it represents an additional 70% loss from your entry point.

• Marginal Buyers & expensive BTC: Currently, MicroStrategy and Tom Lee are the only major marginal buyers. Bitcoin is still in an "expensive range" relative to its 200-day moving average, making it unattractive for institutional money managers until it hits lower support.

• The January 15th FUD: Two major events converge on mid-January: the Tom Lee compensation vote and the MSCI decision regarding MicroStrategy's index inclusion. Ivan believes a meaningful relief rally is unlikely until this "FUD overhang" is cleared.

The Takeaway

Ivan remains "risk-off," a stance he has held since October 8th. He stresses that altcoins are in a clear bear trend (below the 50-week moving average) and warns that they will continue to face "gravity" as long as Bitcoin is not in a confirmed bull trend.

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