Rates Hold, Regulation Heats Up

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

FOMC Recap + The GENIUS Act Push

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! This week brought no surprises from the Fed, but crypto just took center stage in Washington. Let’s dive in!

🤔 Inflation is easing, but the Fed is staying cautious

At the June 18 meeting, the Fed held steady. April’s PCE inflation came in at 2.1%, moving closer to the 2% target. Expectations for future inflation are also falling, helped by Trump’s recent pivot on trade.

• The labor market is still growing, but signs of weakness are showing. It’s taking longer for people to find jobs, and new grads are struggling.
  

• It’s not a breakdown, but enough to raise questions about how much longer the Fed can delay cuts.

Despite this, Powell isn’t ready to act. He’s concerned that tariffs could bring another wave of inflation and is leaning on forward-looking forecasts, even as some of them have been off in the past. The Fed still signals two cuts for 2025, though some members expect none. Crypto markets looking for liquidity relief will have to keep waiting.

🇺🇸 Meanwhile, Trump is going all in on crypto

Just a day after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, Trump publicly called on the House to move fast. His message was clear:

• “Get it to my desk, ASAP. No delays, no add-ons.” He’s framing it as a path to making the US the global leader in digital assets.

The GENIUS Act is the most significant crypto legislation to date. It sets clear rules for stablecoins, including full 1:1 backing with cash or Treasuries, mandatory audits, AML compliance, and strong user protections. It also limits Big Tech from issuing stablecoins unless they meet strict requirements.

This kind of regulatory clarity could be a turning point. Stablecoin issuers would finally get a legal framework in the US, unlocking real institutional interest. For crypto, this is bigger than hype. It’s a path toward integration with the traditional financial system

⚠️ But it’s not without controversy

The bill now heads to the House, where some Republicans want to attach it to other proposals like the STABLE Act. Critics, including Elizabeth Warren, argue that Trump could personally benefit. His stablecoin venture, USD1, has already reported $57 million in gains. That connection is raising eyebrows, but for now, momentum is building.

The Fed is on pause, but Washington isn’t. The GENIUS Act could become law within weeks. If it does, it won’t just define how stablecoins operate in the US. It could mark the beginning of a regulated, scalable crypto economy.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

📊 Crypto Stocks Over Coins?

🗒️ Following the Senate’s passing of the GENIUS Act, crypto-related stocks are stealing the spotlight, and investors are piling in.

• Circle, which has long been seen as a key stablecoin infrastructure player, is now soaring as optimism grows around regulatory clarity.
  

• With the company at the heart of USDC and directly tied to Coinbase’s Base chain, the ripple effect is being felt across the ecosystem.

Interestingly, while the broader crypto market remains flat to weak, sentiment is shifting toward crypto equity exposure rather than direct coin speculation. This pivot could mark the early stages of a new trend: investors preferring regulated crypto plays on traditional markets, especially in uncertain macro conditions.

🔵 On-chain, Base, which is tightly connected with Circle, is benefiting from momentum. Native tokens like Aerodrome (AERO) and Creatorbid (BID) are showing resilience, making gains and holding key levels while other ecosystems lag.'

Still, zooming out, sentiment remains neutral to slightly bearish. The Fed’s ongoing caution and lack of a clear rate-cut signal are keeping risk appetite subdued. Without a strong catalyst, we may be stuck in a sideways or downward grind in the near term.

Stay informed, stay hedged, and don’t chase a deeper correction that is still on the table.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Trump Pushes House to Pass GENIUS Act Despite Conflict Concerns
Trump urges the House to fast-track the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, as lawmakers debate ethics and Trump family crypto ties.

Sol Strategies Files for Nasdaq Listing, Bets Big on Solana
Canadian firm Sol Strategies plans a Nasdaq debut, expanding its Solana-focused treasury strategy with over 420,000 SOL held.

Treasury Secretary Bessent: Stablecoins Key to U.S. Dollar Strength
Bessent argues stablecoins will reinforce dollar dominance and backs urgent passage of the GENIUS Act amid political tensions.

1inch DAO Votes on $768K Reimbursement Plan After Hack
1inch DAO proposes compensating users hit by a 2024 exploit, but the vote remains split due to identity and revenue concerns.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Josh Olszewicz – Alt Coins: Summer Drain Continues (19.06.2025 Summary)

Josh discusses the ongoing weakness in altcoins and why he thinks it’s not a good time to be trading them right now.

Josh's Key Opinions:

1. Altcoins Are Still Very Weak

• Most altcoins are dropping or flat with no real signs of recovery.

• Even when Bitcoin (BTC) or certain stocks like Coinbase (COIN) go up, alts don’t follow.

• The charts for altcoins show “months and months of rolling over” meaning they just keep going down.

2. BTC and ETH Are Still the Main Story

• Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding better than altcoins, but even ETH looks shaky unless it breaks higher (around $2,700).

• He says if you're bullish on alts, you have to believe ETH will break up first.

3. Some Stocks Look Stronger Than Alts

• Coinbase (COIN), Dell, and Robinhood (HOOD) are seeing gains.

• Josh says the market is more interested in companies connected to crypto rather than actual altcoins.

• He admits COIN looks bullish, even though he didn’t expect it to move much.

4. Most Altcoins Look “Ugly”

• Altcoins like Solana, SUI, ADA, LTC, XRP, DOT, and many more look technically broken or weak.

• He repeats that many are below the cloud (his indicator for bearishness).

• Only a few coins like Maker and Tron look okay, but that’s about it.

5. Now Is Not the Time for Alts

• He compares this moment to times when big stocks move first before crypto catches up (like Nvidia before BTC moved).

• Says it's better to wait for higher highs or confirmation before buying alts.

• For now, the safer move is to sit out and watch instead of trying to “buy the dip” and getting chopped.

Josh’s Advice in Simple Terms:

• Avoid altcoins for now. Most look terrible and could go even lower.

• Watch ETH closely. It might lead a breakout, and alts could follow later.

• Consider crypto-related stocks if you really want exposure, but use caution.

• Be patient. Wait for solid trends before jumping in.
  

Lark Davis – Crypto It's Far From Over (19.06.2025 Summary)

Lark believes the crypto bull market is not over, but we’re currently stuck in a frustrating and uncertain period because of macro and geopolitical issues.

Lark's Key Opinions:

1. Crypto is Strong Fundamentally

• Despite price weakness, crypto has never looked more bullish in terms of news and adoption.

• Major companies are investing in Bitcoin, new ETFs are launching, and adoption is rising (Wall Street, PayPal, Stripe, etc.).

2. Geopolitics & Macro Are Holding Us Back

• Ongoing threats of war (like a possible US-Iran conflict) and global uncertainty are making markets nervous.

• Stocks and crypto are stuck, not because of bad fundamentals, but because of fear and confusion.

3. Bitcoin Still Looks Good

• BTC is only down about 7–8% from all-time highs, which is normal.

• It’s sitting in a “triangle” pattern; if it breaks down, it could drop to $93K, but if it breaks up, it could hit $120K+.

4. ETH and Solana: Watch Closely

• Ethereum is stuck in a tight range between $2,100 and $3,000.

• Solana is holding key support, but if it drops further, things could get uglier despite ETF potential.

5. Altcoins: Brutal Market

• Most altcoins are struggling badly, and even promising projects are down 50% or more.

• A few exceptions are performing well (like Hype and Aerodrome), especially those with treasury investment news.

• Lark says it's hard holding bags right now, but believes better days are coming.

6. ETF & Adoption News is Wild

• ETH ETFs are seeing inflows.

• Companies like Prenetics and Circle are buying Bitcoin or launching crypto services.

• Circle IPO caused a 10x for early investors, though Lark thinks it’s now overvalued.

7. Lark’s Take on Market Timing

• He thinks we may not follow the usual 4-year cycle this time.

• Instead, we could see a longer, multi-year bull market, similar to how gold ETFs affected gold years ago.

8. Final View: Calm Before the Storm

• Lark believes we're in a strange moment: fundamentals are amazing, but price isn't reacting yet.

• If peace returns and fear fades, crypto could explode upward.

• If war breaks out, we might get a harsh dip first, but he’s still long-term bullish.

Lark’s Simple Advice:

• Stay patient and zoom out. Big money is entering. Adoption is growing. This pause may lead to major upside.

• Watch macro news (like US-Iran tensions) - it's driving fear more than actual crypto weakness.

• Altcoins are risky now, but he sees a few with potential and expects a rebound eventually.

• Celebrate profits and don’t get dragged into drama or hype.

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