Momentum Slowing

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Bearish Reversal?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! There seems to be a potential momentum shift in the market, so let’s explore.

🍃 It is now the 2nd day after FOMC, and the bullish momentum from it seems to be slowly fading.

The cut was not enough to power another leg up, as it was likely already mostly priced in, and the Fed did not provide any meaningful positive outlook for more cuts.

So now the market is stuck in a tricky situation.

A significant amount of open interest has accumulated in altcoins. The total alt interest now equals that of BTC, which usually acts as a short-term top signal.

With so much open interest, leverage is high - in fact, it is the main driver of this cycle's alt price action, making the risk of volatility significantly higher. Past cycles were driven more by normal spot buying, which is far more reliable.

⚠️ A correction here could mean a big liquidation cascade for long traders.

With SPX and gold at all-time highs and the dollar bouncing back and potentially going on an uptrend for the next couple of weeks, the risk for crypto is very high right now.

What we see as a potential scenario in the next 3-4 weeks is BTC testing the $104-105k price levels before finding a holding ground and continuing higher in late October.

That would mean alts could be in for a rough time with potential 20-30% drops.

💲 For now we'll be closely watching the Dollar Index. If it continues going up, it means crypto will be struggling for possibly 3-4 weeks.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

✈️ Airdrops and More Airdrops

🎁 With market momentum slowing down, a lot of attention is flowing toward airdrops as quite a few have popped up.

Here is a list of the largest upcoming airdrops:

• Base chain

• Metamask wallet

• Rabby wallet

• Lighter decentralized exchange

Each of these has billion-dollar potential and could generate significant hype and trading volume. If you’ve interacted with these projects, you may qualify for free tokens once distributions go live.

Exact dates are still under wraps, but signals point to 2025 early 2026.

Outside of airdrop chatter, overall sentiment is neutral, but early signs of bearishness are creeping in as the market digests fading momentum.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Ethereum sets Dec. 3 date for Fusaka upgrade
Ethereum’s next big upgrade is coming in December, bringing faster speeds and lower costs.

XRP ETF launches in the U.S.
The first U.S. spot XRP ETF has started trading, giving investors easy exposure to the crypto.

Dogecoin ETF makes debut
A new ETF lets investors trade Dogecoin directly on U.S. markets for the first time.

New Solana treasury Solmate raises $300M
Backed by Solana Foundation and ARK Invest, Solmate will buy Solana and build crypto infrastructure.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Post-FOMC (19.09.2025 Summary)

Cowen says Bitcoin is still on track and following the same rhythm we’ve seen in past cycles. The Fed’s rate cut helps, but September could bring turbulence before the next leg up.

• Cycle outlook: Bitcoin is holding above the 20-week SMA, just like in past cycles where September dips were followed by breakouts in October or November.

• Near term: He expects a short bounce, then a small pullback in late September or early October, before Bitcoin attempts new highs.

• Risk level: Weekly closes below the 50-week SMA (around 98K) would be a red flag that the cycle might be ending.

• Macro backdrop: The Fed is likely to cut again in October and December, moving rates toward neutral. That could mark the timing of a cycle top.

• Market link: A 5–6% stock market cooldown or a bounce in yields and the dollar could delay Bitcoin’s breakout, but BTC dominance may rise in that case.

Bottom line: Cowen’s outlook is bullish into October and beyond, but he warns to expect a small pullback first and to watch the 50-week SMA as the key safety line.

Bankless – The Fed Lowered Interest Rates: Here's What It Means For Crypto (19.09.2025 Summary)

The Bankless crew says the Fed’s September rate cut is a clear signal: cheaper money is back, and that’s a boost for crypto. But the bigger picture goes beyond just one cut.

• Outlook on the market: Lower rates usually push investors into risk assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum both rallied after the decision, and Bankless expects momentum to keep building if more cuts come in October and December.

• Cycle perspective: Instead of the old four-year boom-and-bust cycle, Bitcoin has been grinding steadily higher for almost three years. This slower, steadier rise looks healthier and may mean cycles are stretching into five years or more.

• Institutional factor: ETFs and disciplined institutional investors are keeping the market more stable. Unlike retail, these players rebalance portfolios, which reduces wild swings.

• Arthur Hayes’ “third mandate”: Some believe the Fed is quietly adding a new mission: keeping long-term interest rates low (yield curve control). If true, it means more money printing and long-term bullishness for Bitcoin and other scarce assets.

• ETF flood coming: With new SEC listing standards, it will be easier to launch crypto ETFs beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could unlock much broader access and fresh capital.

Bottom line: Bankless is bullish. Lower rates, institutional inflows, and easier ETF access all point to a stronger crypto market ahead, though volatility will still be part of the ride.

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