Price Struggles While Adoption Grows

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

More Pain Before Gain?

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Another red day for crypto, but strangely, adoption is still growing.

Rallies keep showing up, but they fade fast. Each bounce has been short lived, and crypto continues to underperform compared to other asset classes.

Technically, Bitcoin has still managed to print a higher low in the short term and is holding its short term uptrend. There is a chance we attempt another push higher, but if that fails, a rejection could send price back below $90k.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have now lost the monthly MACD. That is a strong signal of growing bearish momentum. 🐻 

For this quarter, we do not expect Bitcoin to outperform. There are simply too many other shiny places for capital to flow right now like robotics, AI, energy, and metals.

🤔 Interestingly, while price struggles, adoption keeps moving forward.

The New York Stock Exchange is building a system where regular stocks and ETFs can exist as digital tokens. You would still own normal shares with the same rights, but the underlying tech would use blockchain to move money and settle trades.

The idea is simple: trade 24/7, buy tiny fractions of shares, and settle instantly. They are not building one private blockchain. Instead, they are making it compatible with multiple existing chains.

So even though prices look weak, blockchain adoption is clearly growing. Because of that, our stance is patience. This is not a time to chase. It is a time to wait, observe, and prepare for when conditions truly improve.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

How Low Can BTC Go?

With Bitcoin now competing with many other sectors for liquidity and losing that battle for now, lower prices seem likely until levels become attractive enough again for big money to step in.

Because of that, we are in no rush to catch any falling knives. We are not trying to call the exact bottom. We are waiting for much better prices.

• Among technical analysts, the general consensus points to a possible bottom somewhere between $60k and $70k.

We largely agree. That is the zone where we would start seriously watching for a base to form.

Altcoins are in the same boat. Many are forming large head and shoulders patterns on weekly charts. On top of that, there are still big liquidation wicks from 10.10.2025 that have not been fully revisited.

That means more pain is possible. This is a season for patience, discipline, and emotional control. Sometimes the real edge is not trading, but waiting.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Bermuda Moves Toward a Fully Onchain Economy
Bermuda partnered with Coinbase and Circle to pilot stablecoin payments and onchain finance across government agencies, local businesses, and financial institutions.

MegaETH Prepares Massive Mainnet Stress Test
Ethereum Layer 2 MegaETH will open its mainnet for a global stress test, aiming to process 11 billion transactions ahead of its public launch.

Makina Finance Hit by $5 Million Stablecoin Exploit
Makina Finance suffered a suspected oracle manipulation attack using a massive USDC flash loan, draining around $5 million from a stablecoin pool.

Hong Kong Industry Group Pushes Back on Crypto Rules
A Hong Kong securities body warned that stricter crypto licensing rules could deter traditional asset managers from allocating even small amounts to digital assets.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Timing Cycle Bottoms (20.01.2026 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen looks at how Bitcoin usually finds its cycle bottoms. Instead of price predictions, he focuses on one simple on-chain metric: how many holders are in profit versus loss.

Key Points

• Bitcoin bottoms tend to form every four years, often during midterm years

• Cowen tracks the percentage of Bitcoin supply held in profit and in loss

• This metric isn’t good for calling tops, but it’s very useful for spotting bottoms

• In past cycles, major lows formed when only 35–45% of holders were in profit

• That level means most investors are underwater and sentiment is washed out

• Right now, around 74% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit

• Even after recent declines, the market hasn’t reached historical “max pain” levels

• Bitcoin often rallies before the final bottom, creating convincing but temporary recoveries

• These rallies usually lead to lower highs before the cycle fully resets

Takeaway

Cowen’s message is calm and realistic. The data suggests Bitcoin is still in a late-cycle digestion phase, not at a true bottom yet. Historically, real bottoms arrive when far more people are in loss and confidence is largely gone.

Paul Barron Network – Chaos Crash? (20.01.2026 Summary)

Paul Barron speaks with trader Gareth Soloway about rising geopolitical tension, tariff threats, and what this could mean for stocks, Bitcoin, and crypto markets over the coming months.

Key Points

• Trump’s tariff threats are creating short-term fear, but markets have seen this playbook before

• Big announcements are often timed before long weekends to let panic cool off

• If tariffs escalate and Europe pushes back, Soloway sees a real risk of a 10% stock market correction

• In the short term, fear still pulls Bitcoin down alongside stocks

• Technically, Bitcoin looks weak near-term, but downside appears limited to roughly $65k–$70k

• Past cycles show Bitcoin often bottoms near previous all-time highs

• Soloway expects more downside in the first half of the year, with recovery later

• Second half of the year looks more bullish as rate cuts and liquidity increase

• Ethereum could still drop further short-term, with $2,100 as a key support area

• Solana stands out as a relative strength play, especially tied to tokenized securities and on-chain trading

• Gold remains strong as a fear hedge, while silver looks overstretched and vulnerable to a pullback

• Rising long-term bond yields suggest growing concern about US debt and fiscal stability

• Over time, these pressures support Bitcoin’s long-term bullish case as a hedge

Takeaway

Soloway’s view is balanced: short-term volatility and downside risk are real, especially if markets de-risk. But structurally, Bitcoin and select crypto assets look closer to a late-cycle reset than a collapse, with better conditions likely forming in the second half of the year.

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