Fed Holds Rates, Bitcoin Stalls

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Bitcoin, The Fed & Trump

👋 Hey Crypto Traders! Markets are digesting the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates, while Bitcoin remains stuck below $88K resistance. Let’s dive into today’s biggest developments!

❓️ Crypto Market in Uncertainty

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has once again decided to keep interest rates unchanged, disappointing many investors hoping for an early rate cut. While the decision wasn’t entirely unexpected, it left crypto markets in limbo, as traders were hoping for fresh momentum to push Bitcoin and altcoins higher.

• Despite holding rates steady, the Federal Reserve hinted at two potential rate reductions later in 2025, keeping hopes alive for looser monetary conditions in the future. However, with inflation still a concern and economic uncertainty lingering, the central bank opted to stay the course for now.
  

• This lack of immediate action left the crypto market directionless, with Bitcoin trading around $83,200, unable to break higher. Ethereum also struggled to gain traction, hovering near $2,050, while XRP held onto recent gains at $2.40.

🤔 Although the decision to maintain interest rates didn’t cause a major sell-off, traders are now looking elsewhere for catalysts that could reignite the rally. With no immediate relief from monetary policy, speculation is growing about what could drive the next big move in the market.

📉 Quantitative Tightening Slows

While the Fed didn’t cut rates, it did announce a slowdown in Quantitative Tightening (QT) - the process of reducing its balance sheet by selling Treasury securities. This adjustment signals a softer approach to financial conditions, which some view as a step toward future rate cuts.

• Historically, markets perform better when QT slows or stops completely, as it increases liquidity. Although this isn’t the outright stimulus some were hoping for, it suggests the Fed is becoming more cautious about draining capital from the financial system.

For crypto investors, a slower QT program could mean more stability in risk assets. If the Fed follows through on its two projected rate cuts later this year, we could see a stronger bullish narrative emerge for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Crypto Speech

In addition to the FOMC decision, another event that captured the crypto world’s attention was Donald Trump’s speech at the Digital Asset Summit in New York.

The speech was hyped up as a potential game-changer for crypto regulation in the U.S., with rumors swirling that Trump might announce 0% capital gains tax on crypto or that the U.S. government would begin mining Bitcoin using excess energy.

Neither of those speculations turned out to be true.

Instead, Trump focused on positioning the U.S. as a "Bitcoin superpower", vowing to end the “regulatory war on crypto” and reverse restrictive policies put in place by the previous administration.

While Trump’s words were bullish for the long term, the lack of concrete policy changes caused market enthusiasm to fade quickly. Bitcoin initially saw a brief rally, but as the speech concluded prices pulled back, suggesting that traders had priced in far bigger expectations.

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Crypto Analysts Weigh In

With the FOMC decision out of the way and Trump’s speech failing to produce immediate fireworks, traders are now turning to technical analysis for clues on where Bitcoin might be headed next.

Some of the most followed analysts on X have weighed in on the current price action, and while their approaches differ, there seems to be a general consensus:

1️⃣ CredibleCrypto:

• Believes Bitcoin is at a key inflection point.

• If BTC breaks above $88K and holds, a rally to $94K is likely.

• If BTC fails to break resistance, a pullback to the $70K range could follow.

2️⃣ MaxBecauseBTC:

• Uses Ichimoku Cloud analysis and notes that BTC remains below key cloud levels ($88K-$89K).

• If BTC climbs above the cloud, the next move could be above $90K.

3️⃣ CoinTraderNick:

• Expects Bitcoin to trade sideways for a bit, followed by a quick dip to $81K before rebounding toward $90K.

• He sees $90K as a strong resistance zone.

The Bottom Line: A Break Above $88K Could Trigger the Next Big Move

Across different methodologies, one key takeaway stands out: If Bitcoin can decisively break above $88K, a run toward $90K+ is likely.

However, if BTC faces rejection at this level, a deeper correction toward $81K or even the $70K range is on the table.

For now, traders are watching price action closely, waiting to see which direction Bitcoin chooses in the coming days.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

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YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen - The Fed Slows Quantitative Tightening (20.03.2025 Summary)

What the Fed’s Move Means for Bitcoin and Markets

Benjamin Cowen dives into the Federal Reserve’s decision to slow quantitative tightening (QT) and what it means for Bitcoin and the broader financial markets. While this is not a full policy shift, history suggests it could impact price trends.

1. The Fed’s QT Slowdown – What’s Changing?

🔹 Monthly Treasury reduction drops from 25 billion to 5 billion
🔹 Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) reductions remain at 35 billion
🔹 The Fed is extending its tightening cycle but at a slower pace

This move mirrors a similar slowdown in May 2024, which led to a short-term bounce in markets but did not mark a final pivot.

2. Will Bitcoin React the Same Way as 2024?

Cowen looks at historical trends:

📌 May 2024 QT slowdown led to an immediate rally followed by weakness a few weeks later
📌 Markets took one to two months before a sustained rally followed

If history repeats, Bitcoin could see a bounce now, but another dip might come in early April before a more durable uptrend.

3. Bitcoin’s Key Levels to Watch

📌 87K CME gap is a key downside target
📌 90K bull market support band must be reclaimed for trend strength
📌 2024 highs between 82K and 84K serve as critical support for the uptrend

4. Altcoins and Bitcoin Dominance – Still No Breakout

Altcoin-BTC pairs remain weak, just like they did last year when the Fed slowed QT. The trend suggests:

✅ Short-term bounces are possible
🚫 But dominance is still favoring Bitcoin

5. What’s Next? The Fed’s “Slow for Longer” Policy

The Fed’s move does not mean an immediate pivot, just an extended runway for QT. Markets are watching:

🔹 April macro events including tariff policies and labor market data
🔹 Inflation reports that will impact future rate cuts
🔹 Bank of Japan rate decision in July that could shake things up

Final Take:

Bitcoin may rally short term, but do not be surprised if weakness returns before a real breakout. History suggests patience is key. Watch for a mid-to-late spring reversal.

Josh Olszewicz - Alt Coins: Bottoming is a Process (20.03.2025 Summary)

Altcoins Still in No-Man’s Land – Patience Needed

Josh Olszewicz takes a deep dive into altcoins, explaining why it is still too early to expect a full reversal. While some charts are showing signs of stabilization, the process of bottoming takes time.

1. Bitcoin Dominance – Still in Control

📌 Bitcoin dominance remains strong, keeping altcoins in a weaker position
📌 No clear signs of an altseason until BTC dominance drops below 60 percent
📌 Liquidity is not there yet as rate cuts, stimulus, or stronger market conditions are needed

2. The Altcoin Bottoming Process – How Long Will It Take?

📌 After the 2020 halving, it took 320 days for altcoins to truly bottom
📌 A similar long process could be playing out now
📌 April is too early for a full reversal, with Q2 or Q3 more likely

3. Best Altcoin Setup Right Now? Be Selective

✅ Look for high time-frame reversal signs like inverted head and shoulders patterns
✅ Many coins are still stuck under resistance, including ETH, SOL, and ADA
✅ Mean reversion plays might be possible, but confirmation is needed

4. Altcoin Standouts – What’s Showing Strength?

🔹 XRP is holding strong after the SEC dropped its case, but still in neutral territory
🔹 PEPE and meme coins are oversold and attempting to break out
🔹 TRX and FTT are showing early signs of stabilization

5. The Bigger Picture – What Will Trigger Altseason?

🚫 Not just Bitcoin stabilization. We need:

🔹 Rate cuts or stimulus to increase liquidity
🔹 Stronger altcoin narratives, since memecoins are leading while major L1s like ETH and SOL need to reclaim lost ground
🔹 BTC strength without altcoin weakness

Final Take:

The altcoin market is not ready for a full breakout. Some assets are stabilizing, but true strength will take months to develop. Until then, be patient and do not rush in without confirmation.

CRYPTO MEMES

How a green candle feels in a bearish market 😂