Rebuilding Confidence

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

After the Shock

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market is trying to recover but uncertainty is still high. Let’s explore.

The crypto market remains in a state of deep uncertainty following one of the most violent and historic liquidations in recent memory. In under an hour, billions in open interest were wiped out, cutting total alt OI nearly in half and leaving market confidence badly fractured.

The broader environment continues to weigh heavily. When stocks are steadily grinding higher and every dip gets bought, retail investors have little incentive to take on risk in crypto - especially in alts that just saw 80–90% drawdowns in a flash.

The question now is simple: who’s the buyer left in this market ❓️ 

Funds, crypto-native institutions, and smart money players were all hit in the same washout. With risk appetite collapsing, it’s difficult to see new capital stepping in soon. For now, the path ahead looks like a slow, choppy rebuild rather than a rapid recovery.

This environment resembles May 2021 in the short term - high volatility, low conviction, and short-lived narratives. Market participants are focused on quick trades and capital preservation, not long-term positioning.

From a macro perspective, uncertainty has only intensified. The U.S. government shutdown has frozen nearly all economic data releases, creating a vacuum of information just as markets need clarity. The only exception is CPI, set to be released this Friday, marking the first Friday CPI print since January 2018 and arriving just five days before the October 29th Fed meeting.

With no other data scheduled until the shutdown ends, CPI will carry major influence - especially during a pivotal phase of the Fed’s rate-cut debate. Some analysts expect a bullish CPI surprise, which could briefly lift sentiment across risk assets.

🟢 Despite the shock, the broader structure for Bitcoin remains intact. The recent flush was largely retail-driven, and long-term conviction among institutions hasn’t meaningfully shifted. Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold still holds, though it will take more time than most expect.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Finding Balance

It’s been a loud week. Some people are shouting that a massive rally is coming, others are calling for the next crash. In reality, it’s probably not either extreme. The market’s still finding its footing, and that takes time.

Big picture: the long-term direction still looks positive, but the short-term swings can be messy. A quick bounce here or there doesn’t mean we’re off to new highs, and a dip doesn’t mean it’s all over.

🧘 If you’re trading right now, try not to get caught up in the drama. Zoom out. Stick to your own plan. These are the kind of conditions that punish emotional decisions and reward patience.

ETH Quietly Standing Out

While most of the market’s been chopping sideways, Ethereum has been quietly showing strength. The ETH/BTC chart is showing strength for a potential reversal. It won’t happen overnight and momentum may need some more time to build.

There will be pullbacks and fakeouts, but the overall structure looks healthy. This might be the early stage of a longer ETH trend that unfolds gradually rather than explosively.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Asia’s Top Ethereum Backers Plan $1 Billion ETH Treasury Firm
Major Asian crypto investors, including founders of Huobi, Fenbushi, and HashKey, are planning to acquire a Nasdaq-listed firm to launch a $1 billion Ethereum treasury.

Japan May Let Banks Trade and Hold Crypto Assets
Japan’s Financial Services Agency is considering new rules that would allow local banks to buy, sell, and even operate as crypto exchanges.

Beijing Halts Chinese Tech Giants’ Stablecoin Plans in Hong Kong
Ant Group and JD.com have paused plans to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong after regulators in Beijing ordered a slowdown amid e-CNY adoption concerns.

OpenSea to Launch SEA Token in Q1 2026 With Major Buyback Plan
OpenSea will release its SEA token early next year, allocating half to users and pledging 50% of revenue for buybacks as it expands into multi-chain trading.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Market Cycles (20.10.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen takes a deep dive into Bitcoin’s market cycle and asks the big question: has the top already formed, or is there one final push left? He leans on historical cycles, macro comparisons, and technical indicators to lay out possible paths forward as we head into Q4 2025.

Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points

• Four-year cycle still in play – Cowen sees consistent Bitcoin cycle tops in Q4 of every post-halving year: 2013, 2017, 2021, and possibly 2025.

• Don’t assume it’s different this time – While some indicators haven’t flashed yet, he warns not to ignore the historical Q4 topping pattern.

• No top indicators triggered yet – Metrics like MVRV-Z score and terminal price have not hit typical cycle highs, suggesting there might be room left for a final rally.

• Altcoins will bleed unless BTC hits new highs – Without a breakout from Bitcoin, altcoins will likely underperform or decline in BTC terms.

• Key support level: 50-week moving average – Weekly closes below ~$100K would strongly suggest the top is in and a bear market has begun.

Final Takeaway

Cowen remains cautiously optimistic. If Bitcoin can hold above the 50-week moving average and push higher into Q4, another leg up is possible. But if not, the top may already be in. Either way, he advises staying focused on BTC for now, and not getting complacent as we enter the most critical quarter of the cycle.

Lark Davis – Trump Just Played His Biggest Crypto Move Yet (20.10.2025 Summary)

Lark Davis argues that Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China have unintentionally triggered the most pro-crypto move of his career. Beyond trade, the real war is over money – and crypto, especially stablecoins, may be the U.S.’s secret weapon in a new era of financial dominance.

Lark’s Outlook – Key Points

• Currency war, not just trade war – The real battle is over the future of money. The U.S. is embracing open, decentralized finance while China doubles down on surveillance-based systems.

• Trump’s tariffs strengthen stablecoin demand – Even posturing about trade restrictions sends capital looking for faster, freer money flows – and that leads straight to stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

• Stablecoins = global dollar rails – Every stablecoin transaction extends U.S. dollar dominance. They're becoming the new infrastructure for international trade and value transfer.

• Open systems always win – Crypto protocols, like the internet, are anti-fragile. As more nations clamp down on capital movement, crypto becomes the exit door.

• Geopolitical chaos fuels crypto – Financial instability drives demand for permissionless, borderless assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins.

Final Takeaway

Whether intentional or not, Trump’s actions are accelerating the shift to blockchain-based finance. Stablecoins are quietly embedding U.S. dollar power into global trade – and crypto is the vehicle carrying it there.

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