Crypto at a Crossroads

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Macro Pressure Builds

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Crypto markets reacted sharply to rising geopolitical risk and inflation concerns, with Bitcoin testing key support levels.Let’s explore the latest developments.

The crypto market has been anything but quiet since last Friday. Over the weekend, we saw intense volatility, unfortunately skewed to the downside.

🤔 The catalyst? Escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran.

Late last week, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

In response, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. This threat rippled through global markets, and crypto was hit hard.

📉 The Fallout

• Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from to near $98,000

• Ethereum (ETH) fell sharply to around $2,200

• Over $1 billion in crypto liquidations occurred in just one day

🛢️ Why Oil Prices Matter (Even for Crypto)

If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil prices could skyrocket. Here's why that’s crucial for crypto:

1. Higher oil = higher inflation
   Rising energy costs push inflation across the board.
   

2. Higher inflation = tighter monetary policy
   Central banks may delay rate cuts or even consider more hikes.
   

3. Tighter policy = less appetite for risk
   In times of uncertainty, investors favor safer assets over crypto.

In short:

📊 Market Technicals: BTC on the Edge

Bitcoin recently rejected its all-time high of $112,000 and bounced from the $98,000 support level. Momentum is weak and short-term trends are leaning bearish.

• If $98K holds, BTC could rebound to $104K–$105K

• If $98K breaks, we may see a dip toward $89K, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders setup

🗓️ Macro Events to Watch This Week

These economic events could drive the next move in crypto:

If the data shows slowing growth and easing inflation, crypto may bounce. If not, expect continued pressure.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

👀 Eyes on Crypto IPOs

While major coins are struggling, attention is shifting to Crypto IPOs, a new frontier for institutional and retail investors alike.

A Crypto IPO is when a blockchain-focused company, like Circle, goes public by listing its shares on a traditional stock exchange.

🤔 Why Go Public?

1. Access to Capital
   Tap into large pools of institutional and retail investment.

2. Legitimacy
   Public status increases transparency and trust, especially with regulators.

3. Liquidity
   Early investors and VCs gain a clear exit strategy.

💹 Circle’s IPO Makes Waves

Circle’s recent IPO saw shares jump from an average of $100 to $250 in just a few days. The market noticed, and so did the whales.

Large institutions often wait for regulated, familiar vehicles before deploying capital. Crypto IPOs offer exactly that: a way to bet on the crypto space without dealing with smart contract risk or custody concerns.

🚀 What’s Next?

Several big names are rumored to be preparing for IPOs:

• TRON

• OKX

• Kraken

These IPOs will be a key test. Will institutions prefer equity in crypto companies over tokens themselves? That’s something we’ll be watching closely.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Texas Approves Public Bitcoin Reserve With Long-Term Protections
Texas becomes the third U.S. state with a Bitcoin reserve, using new legislation to secure long-term legal and operational backing.

Coinbase Wins MiCA License, Unlocking Full EU Market Access
Coinbase secures approval in Luxembourg under MiCA, allowing it to serve all 27 EU nations and raising regulatory arbitrage concerns.

KakaoPay Stock Soars Over 200% on Stablecoin Expectations
KakaoPay shares surge as investors anticipate a stablecoin launch, backed by new patents and government support for crypto adoption.

OKX Eyes U.S. IPO After $500M DOJ Settlement and Market Return
OKX is considering a U.S. listing as it rebuilds its presence post-settlement, hiring a new CEO and planning a crypto super app.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band (23.06.2025 Summary)

Ben Cowen believes Bitcoin is likely to drop to around $95K soon, possibly lower later in Q3 (July–September), before another rally in Q4 (October–December).

📉 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks):

• Bitcoin will likely drop to the Bull Market Support Band (~$95K).

• That’s a normal pattern seen in past years around this time.

🕒 Q3 (July–September):

• Ben expects more downside risk, with Bitcoin possibly going to:

  • 85K (60% chance)

  • Down to 60K (20% chance, if there's a recession)

• Bitcoin might find a low in August or September, like in previous years.

📈 Q4 (October–December):

• A rally is likely after the Q3 low.

• If Bitcoin stays above key support levels (like the 50-week moving average), the rally could lead to a new all-time high.

🧠 Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin is stronger than altcoins right now; dominance just hit 66%.

• The exact path is uncertain, but the general expectation is:

  • Drop → Stabilize → Rally

• Ben sees 2026 as a likely bear market year based on historical cycles.

🪙 Final Thoughts from Ben:

Miles Deutscher – Everyone’s Dumping Alts - But I'm Buying! (23.06.2025 Summary)

Miles is buying altcoins while others are panicking, because he believes peak fear is peak opportunity. His plan hasn’t changed - he expects a choppy summer, followed by a strong rally later in the year (Q3–Q4).

🩸 What Just Happened:

• Market dumped hard over the weekend due to Middle East conflict (US-Iran).

• Crypto sold off sharply because it’s 24/7 tradable while stock markets were closed.

• Altcoins were hit hardest, dropping double digits.

🧠 Miles' Strategy:

1. Hold Cash, Then Buy on Fear

• Was holding 50-60% of his portfolio in cash.

• Now starting to buy altcoins during this fear-driven dip.

2. Choppy Summer Plan

• Expected market weakness during summer for months.

• Still confident in a Q4 rally, possibly leading to a new Bitcoin all-time high.

3. Two Buy Strategies:

• Buy key support levels, but cut losses if they break.

• Wait for confirmation (trend shift) before buying.

📈 Short-Term Outlook:

• Believes the weekend dump could mark a local bottom.

• Expects a short squeeze and bounce early next week (Mon–Wed).

• Risk-reward is now in favor of buying, even if it’s uncomfortable.

🪙 On Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin is still king during risk-off times.

• Says Bitcoin could hit 150K this cycle.

• If you’re unsure about alts, just stick to Bitcoin.

🔁 Closing Thoughts from Miles:

CRYPTO MEMES