Crypto on Edge: Bybit’s $1.5B Hack & Market Uncertainty

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

A Market on Thin Ice

👋 Hey Crypto Enthusiasts! It has been quite the eventful weekend with a lot to unfold so let’s dive right in!

The crypto market has been under pressure over the past few days, with one of the biggest hacks in history shaking investor confidence. On Friday, Bybit was exploited for $1.5B worth of Ethereum (ETH). The attack has been linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, a well-known hacking organization responsible for multiple high-profile crypto thefts.

Initially, fears of a massive ETH sell-off surfaced, but North Korea has historically been slow to liquidate stolen assets, often taking years to offload them into fiat. However, the real price action came from Bybit itself, as the exchange needed to fill the hole left by the hack.

To maintain operations and compensate customers, Bybit bought back $1.5B worth of ETH over the weekend, temporarily boosting ETH’s price. But as soon as the exchange announced that the buyback was fully completed, ETH dumped again, wiping out the weekend’s gains.

Bitcoin Follows ETH’s Decline

Bitcoin also saw a sell-off, partially influenced by Michael Saylor completing his $2B BTC purchase. Since the market had already priced in this buying pressure, BTC lost momentum, leading to further downside.

Macro Factors Adding to the Decline

The crypto market’s weakness isn’t just internal—broader macro factors are also playing a role in today’s sell-off:

• S&P 500 Rejection: The stock market failed to push past its all-time high, instead facing rejection and falling over 2%. Weak momentum in equities often spills into crypto, especially during times of uncertainty.

• Japan’s Inflation Spike: Inflation in Japan surged to 4%, signaling a likely appreciation of the Yen, which could lead to liquidity tightening across markets.

• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Tariff concerns and the ongoing Ukraine war are adding to the risk-off sentiment, making investors more cautious.

What to Expect This Week

With the market still lacking clear buying pressure, caution is warranted. Bitcoin remains vulnerable, and another leg down could bring altcoins into deeper correction territory.

📊 Key Levels to Watch:

• $91K BTC Support: A break below this level could signal a deeper pullback for the market.

• ETH Sentiment Shift: With Bybit’s buyback completed, ETH will need fresh demand to regain momentum which will likely take some time.

For now, it’s best to stay cautious and wait for clearer signals before making big moves.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Coins We’re Monitoring During the Dip

Despite the market downturn, certain projects are showing strength and could present solid opportunities once conditions improve. Here’s what we’re watching:

1️⃣ Litecoin (LTC) – ETF Speculation Gaining Traction

• Litecoin has displayed solid price action and has been gaining interest from large traders like Credible Crypto. Speculation is growing that an LTC ETF could be approved soon, making it one of the key assets to monitor.

2️⃣ Hyperliquid (HYPE) – DEX Alternative to Bybit

• With trust in centralized exchanges shaken by Bybit’s massive exploit, Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange (DEX), is seeing increased interest. As more traders seek self-custody alternatives, HYPE could benefit from a surge in adoption.

3️⃣ Rollbit (RLB) – Strong Revenue Model & Buybacks

• Rollbit, a crypto casino platform, is currently burning $100,000 of RLB daily from its platform revenue. One key advantage of Rollbit is that its revenue isn’t directly tied to crypto market volume, making it more resilient in bearish conditions. Well-known traders like Pentoshi have been accumulating RLB, further driving interest.

4️⃣ AAVE – New Upgrade & Buyback Mechanism

• AAVE is rolling out an upgrade today that will introduce token buybacks using its revenue. With AAVE’s annual revenue now surpassing $100M, this new mechanism could drive demand for the token. We’re watching closely to see how the market reacts.

Final Thoughts

🚨 It’s still risky to jump into altcoins right now. Bitcoin hasn’t seen a major correction yet, and a dip toward $80K could drag alts down even further.

However, having a monitor list is essential for when the market stabilizes. Stay patient, stay cautious, and focus on capital preservation until stronger signals emerge.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

SEC Ends Robinhood Crypto Investigation Without Charges
Robinhood announced that the SEC has closed its crypto trading investigation without enforcement action, clearing the platform of regulatory issues amid surging trading volumes.

Ethena Raises $100M to Expand DeFi Stablecoin Ecosystem
Ethena secured $100M from Franklin Templeton, Polychain, and others to build a new blockchain and launch an institutional stablecoin product, iUSDe.

Raydium’s RAY Drops 28% as Pump.fun Develops Its Own AMM
Raydium’s token fell 28% as memecoin platform Pump.fun tested its own AMM feature, raising concerns about reduced trading volume and fee revenue.

Stablecoin Platform Infini Hacked for $49 Million in USDC
Hong Kong-based Infini suffered a $49M exploit as attackers drained funds using compromised smart contract privileges, sending the stolen assets through Tornado Cash.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

DataDash – The Bitcoin Sell-Off Is Upon Us | The Calm Before The Storm...(24.02.2025 Summary)

Nicholas Merten (DataDash) warns of an impending Bitcoin and altcoin sell-off, citing weakening technical indicators and ETF outflows. He urges caution as the market faces serious downside risks.

1. Bitcoin’s Price Action Signals a Correction

• Bitcoin has been trading sideways for nearly three months, showing signs of exhaustion.

• The 21-day moving average is acting as strong resistance, pressing price lower.

• Price is being squeezed downward towards the 200-day moving average, a potential breaking point.

2. ETF Outflows Are a Major Red Flag

• Over 10,000 BTC have exited ETFs in the last three weeks, the largest outflow month since ETF launches.

• Fidelity and BlackRock’s IBIT have seen net slowdowns, reducing buy-side demand.

• This marks a stark contrast from the strong inflows between October and January.

3. Institutional Sentiment Is Cooling

• MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin buying spree has slowed as credit market confidence wanes.

• Large institutions appear hesitant to buy at current prices.

• The rotation from meme coins and hype-driven alts into Bitcoin has not offset institutional outflows.

4. Altcoins Face a Brutal Capitulation Event

• Altcoin dominance is breaking multi-year support levels, signaling further losses.

• Many Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects are weak and need to be "wiped out" for a healthier market.

• Solana has broken below its 200-week moving average, showing clear distribution from insiders.

5. Macro Factors: Stocks Could Drag Crypto Down

• The S&P 500 is struggling to break its historical resistance channel, hinting at a major correction.

• The NASDAQ is showing signs of exhaustion after three months of stagnation.

• If equities correct, Bitcoin will likely follow, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook.

6. Risk Management and Market Opportunities

• Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) is the safest way to navigate uncertainty.

• Upcoming altcoin capitulation will present buying opportunities in stronger narratives.

• Be cautious with leverage trading—downside risks remain high.

🔥 Final Take: Bitcoin is likely heading for a correction as ETF outflows and institutional hesitation weigh on the market. Altcoins are in serious trouble, with dominance breaking down. A broader equities sell-off could compound crypto losses. Stay cautious and look for re-entry points post-capitulation.

Benjamin Cowen – Ethereum: Dubious Speculation (24.02.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen analyzes Ethereum’s price action and its correlation with macroeconomic trends, warning that ETH may face more downside before a true recovery.

1. Ethereum’s Repeated Capitulations

• Ethereum has repeatedly seen sharp sell-offs following Japan’s interest rate hikes.

• This pattern has played out multiple times in the past year.

• ETH may see another drop before forming a sustainable bottom.

2. ETH Price Action: Capitulation, Bounce, Then Another Drop?

• Historical patterns suggest that after a sharp capitulation, ETH bounces before another leg down.

• ETH’s price structure shows a weak recovery and could revisit previous lows.

3. Japan’s Interest Rate Hikes Could Be a Key Catalyst

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise rates again in July, but it could happen sooner.

• Rising Japanese bond yields indicate mounting pressure for further rate hikes.

• Another BoJ rate hike could lead to another ETH sell-off, as seen in previous cycles.

4. ETH vs. Bitcoin: The Struggle Continues

• ETH/BTC has been in a prolonged downtrend, failing to gain meaningful strength.

• Ethereum needs a shift in monetary policy (e.g., end of quantitative tightening) for ETH/BTC to recover.

• Until then, Bitcoin remains the stronger asset.

5. Post-Election Year Seasonality: A Market Clue?

• March historically tends to be a weak month for stocks, which could impact ETH.

• If equities recover in April, ETH may follow suit.

• However, ETH/BTC performance remains a key concern.

6. ETH Needs a Macro Pivot to Rally

• The Federal Reserve has hinted at ending quantitative tightening in mid-2025.

• Historically, ETH/BTC has only bottomed after the Fed shifts to a looser monetary policy.

• Until that happens, ETH remains vulnerable to further downside.

🔥 Final Take: Ethereum’s price action remains weak, and ETH/BTC has yet to show a convincing bottom. Until macroeconomic conditions shift, ETH is likely to continue struggling. If Bitcoin rallies, ETH will rise, but it will still underperform BTC. The true ETH breakout may not happen until the Fed ends quantitative tightening.

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