Calm Before the Next Move?

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Grinding Phase

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Could the crypto market be cooking something behind the scenes? Let’s explore!

This week has been another volatile ride. The market’s still searching for stable footing, and while patience is running thin, we might be closer than it seems.

Today’s key event was the CPI inflation data, which came in lower than expected at 3.0% (vs. 3.1%) - a small miss, but a meaningful one. That softer print sparked a risk-on reaction in equities, with the stock market hitting fresh all-time highs.

But crypto? Not so much.

While BTC initially rallied alongside stocks, the move lasted less than an hour before fading right back down. The market still feels heavy, hinting that a bit more cooling and consolidation might be needed before the next leg higher.

Despite the near-term sluggishness, we’re staying bullish on Q4 - and here’s why:

• 🟢 Soft inflation means no immediate panic from the Fed.

• 🔓 Corporate blackout period ends - stock buybacks resume, adding liquidity.

• 💸 Supportive fiscal policies continue to backstop risk assets.

• 🏦 Rate cuts are on the table, with tightening likely paused.

• 🌏 Potential Trump-Xi trade thaw could calm global jitters.

• 📆 Seasonality favors November, historically a strong month for markets due to increased liquidity.

So while the short-term tape remains tricky, the macro setup heading into year-end still looks promising.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Fear Remains Dominant

Crypto Market sentiment remains deeply cautious. Confidence hasn’t returned, and the divergence between traditional markets and crypto is widening. While stocks surge, crypto continues to lag - a clear sign of hesitation among traders.

Interestingly, crypto-related stocks are stealing some of the spotlight.

According to 10x Research CEO, altcoin market capitalization could be roughly $800 billion higher if retail investors - particularly in South Korea - hadn’t rotated into crypto-equity plays instead.

🇰🇷 South Korean traders, known for fueling altcoin rallies, have been active elsewhere - chasing the 300% surge in Circle’s IPO and other digital-asset-themed equities.

Still, our broader thesis stands:

If Q4 delivers another leg higher, BTC will lead first, dominance will rise, and then - as liquidity expands - we’ll likely see select altcoins catching up in the final rotation phase.

For now, we wait, watch, and prepare. Discipline remains the edge.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

JPMorgan to Accept BTC and ETH as Loan Collateral
JPMorgan will let institutional clients use bitcoin and ether as loan collateral by year-end, marking a major Wall Street crypto shift.

BNB and Trump Tokens Surge After CZ Pardon
BNB and Trump-linked World Liberty Financial tokens jumped after President Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

Revolut and Blockchain.com Gain EU MiCA Licenses
Revolut, Blockchain.com, and Relai secured MiCA licenses, allowing them to operate across the EU under the new crypto rules.

Polymarket Confirms POLY Token and Airdrop
Polymarket’s CMO confirmed the launch of its native POLY token and airdrop, following a $2B ICE investment and rising market momentum.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Ethereum: Dubious Speculation (24.10.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen returns with a deep dive into Ethereum’s price structure, offering a macro perspective on ETH’s current weakness and the possibility of one last rally before the cycle ends. Despite recent downside pressure, Cowen is still cautiously optimistic.

Key Points – What Cowen Says

• ETH’s Regression Band Strategy
  Cowen explains that Ethereum typically bottoms when it revisits its lower regression band. ETH’s recent April drop hit that zone, making it a better buy than in 2022, even at a higher price.

• ETH vs. BTC Performance
  The ETH/BTC pair peaked in mid-August and has since trended lower, aligning with Cowen’s long-standing view that Ethereum struggles against Bitcoin in September and October.

• Final Rally Still Likely
  Cowen believes ETH may have one final push to new all-time highs before a likely market top in late 2025 or early 2026. But that window is closing fast, and a continued delay increases the risk of missing it altogether.

• Downside Risks & Tesla Fractal
  Comparing Ethereum to Tesla’s price action, Cowen suggests ETH could still drop further - possibly even below $2,000 - before another rally, echoing similar fractal behavior.

Final Takeaway

Cowen's base case remains intact: ETH may bounce from current support and rally once more, but time is running out.

Ivan on Tech – CRAZY RALLY IF THIS HAPPENS! (24.10.2025 Summary)

Ivan sees Bitcoin at a critical level. After several failed breakout attempts, all eyes are now on inflation data. If today’s CPI report shows cooling inflation, it could trigger the start of a new bullish trend.

Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points

• Bitcoin must close above $110.6K – Ivan explains that the flip level (around $110,600) is the key resistance to confirm a daily bull trend

• CPI is the big trigger – If inflation comes in lower than expected, Bitcoin could break out today

• Derisking remains smart – Ivan says he’s keeping 30% of his portfolio out of the market due to late-cycle risks

• CZ pardon is bullish for crypto – Trump pardoning Binance founder CZ could shift political sentiment toward crypto positively

• Argentina shows why crypto matters – With hyperinflation destroying the peso, Bitcoin is reaching new highs in local currency

• Focus on big liquid coins – After the recent crash, Ivan is sticking to BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC over risky altcoins

• Altseason later – He’s not rushing back into small caps yet and wants more signs of strength and liquidity before going all in

Final Takeaway
Ivan remains cautiously bullish. A good CPI print could light the fire under Bitcoin, but he’s playing it safe by derisking and staying with large-cap coins until the next clear move.

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