Bitcoin Stuck in the Chop

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Liquidity Still Missing

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market remains very choppy so let’s try to make sense of it.

Bitcoin dropped all the way to the $62k area yesterday but has since rebounded slightly. It’s possible we see a push toward the $67k–$69k zone before price rolls over again.

For now, BTC continues to chop sideways. The last time we saw this kind of choppy action was between $80k and $100k, where price stayed range-bound for a little over two months before eventually breaking down toward $60k.

The current price action could be setting up something similar: a short-term rebound in March, followed by continued downside pressure into April.

That said, there are several near-term catalysts that could shake the market and potentially send prices lower even sooner:

• US–Iran negotiation talks happening today

• NVIDIA’s earnings report later this evening

• Another potential AI shake-up with DeepSeek V4 (release date still unannounced)

On the more positive side, we’ve finally seen some ETF inflows return. However, stablecoin supply remains flat, with no real growth since October 2025, suggesting liquidity is still not meaningfully expanding.

Overall, the market remains in a tricky spot. A larger relief rally in March is possible, but for now, the broader bearish trend is still in control.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Tokenization Push Grows

Crypto markets are seeing a growing shift toward tokenized assets as major exchanges roll out new products tied to real world securities.

Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance all announced new tokenization initiatives this week, pointing to a broader trend of capital rotating into more structured onchain products even as the wider crypto market remains under pressure.

Data shows that tokenized real world assets continue to grow quickly. The total value of assets distributed onchain is up nearly 300% year over year.

• Coinbase said it has partnered with Yahoo Finance to link crypto and equity tickers directly to its exchange. The company described the move as a first step toward deeper integration between traditional and crypto markets.

  

• Kraken, meanwhile, launched tokenized equity perpetual futures for eligible non US clients. The products offer up to 20x leverage and round the clock access, with the exchange calling them a new chapter for how equities and other assets can trade onchain.

  

• Binance has also entered the space by offering tokenized assets through Ondo Finance on its Binance Alpha platform. The exchange said the tokens provide exposure to underlying assets, though they do not include full shareholder rights such as voting.

  

Taken together, the moves show tokenization is becoming a bigger focus for major exchanges, as blockchain increasingly serves as a distribution layer for traditional financial assets.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Hong Kong to Issue First Stablecoin Licenses in March
Hong Kong will approve its first stablecoin issuers next month while expanding regulation to crypto dealers and custodians, reinforcing its digital asset hub ambitions.

South Korea Targets Crypto Influencers With Disclosure Rules
Lawmakers proposed mandatory asset and compensation disclosures for crypto influencers, aiming to curb conflicts of interest and misleading investment promotions.

Kraken Launches 24/7 Tokenized Equity Perpetual Futures
Kraken rolled out round-the-clock perps for gold, major indexes, and stocks like Apple and Nvidia, expanding its push into tokenized traditional markets.

Meta Explores Stablecoin Payments Integration
Meta is reportedly considering stablecoin-based payments across its platforms, signaling renewed digital payments ambitions after its failed Libra project.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Business Cycles Ends With Recessions (25.02.2026 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen says we are late in the business cycle, and most business cycles end with a recession. For crypto, that means weakness now could be part of a bigger macro reset.

Key Points

• His macro model suggests we are not at the start of a new cycle, but near the end of the current one.

• Historically, these cycles only fully reset when a recession hits.

• We are not in a recession yet. Jobs data is still stable, but hiring and job openings are weakening.

• Markets usually price in recessions before they are officially announced.

• Risk falls in stages: altcoins drop first, then Bitcoin, then stocks. Defensive sectors like energy hold up longer.

• Bitcoin may already be pricing in a slowdown. A recession, if it comes in the next 1 to 3 years, could mark the final reset.

Final Takeaway
Cowen’s view is simple: this is late-cycle behavior. Recessions tend to end cycles, and markets move ahead of the headlines. Crypto weakness now may be part of that process, not the beginning of a new bull phase.

CoinBureau – Your Bitcoin Isn't Real (25.02.2026 Summary)

Coin Bureau breaks down “paper Bitcoin” and asks a simple question: if you don’t hold your own keys, do you really own Bitcoin? The video explores how ETFs, exchanges, treasury firms, and derivatives shape BTC’s price and risk profile.

Key Points

• Paper Bitcoin means exposure without self-custody. This includes ETFs, futures, exchange balances, treasury companies, government holdings, and wrapped BTC in DeFi.

• Exchanges are the oldest form. History shows that when exchanges fail, users are left with IOUs instead of real coins. Proof of reserves helps, but it is not perfect.

• ETFs now hold a massive share of supply. They have boosted adoption and price, but most issuers do not publicly verify wallet addresses themselves. Third parties track them instead.

• Treasury companies like Strategy also face scrutiny. Critics question custody, rehypothecation, and transparency, though leadership claims coins are real and not reused.

• Governments and wrapped BTC add more layers. Governments rarely disclose wallets. Wrapped BTC relies on custodians and redemption mechanisms.

• Paper Bitcoin has supported price by increasing access and liquidity. But in stress events, leverage and custodial risk could amplify downside.

• A major custodian failure would damage confidence fast, even if Bitcoin’s base layer remains secure.

Final Takeaway
Paper Bitcoin has helped drive adoption and price, but it introduces trust and counterparty risk. True ownership comes from self-custody. As institutional exposure grows, the balance between convenience and verification will shape Bitcoin’s future.

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