DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW
BTC Holds Steady, Sentiment Improves, and Tariff Day Looms
👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Hope you're all doing well and ready for a fresh day in the markets. Let’s dive in!
🟢 The market is beginning to find its footing again after a rocky few weeks, and sentiment is finally shifting in a more optimistic direction. While uncertainty still lingers ahead of key macro events, there are several strong signals suggesting a potential recovery as we head into Q2.
📈 A Shift in Sentiment
The Fear & Greed Index has climbed out of "extreme fear" territory and is now hovering just shy of neutral. This change reflects a market that is slowly regaining confidence, supported by a series of promising technical signals.
Upcoming Monthly candle closes for Bitcoin and many altcoins are looking strong. The structure suggests we could be in the early stages of a broader recovery. While it's still too early to call a full reversal, the charts are setting the stage for a potentially bullish Q2.
👀 All Eyes on April 2
The biggest near-term risk remains the upcoming April 2 tariff decision. The Trump administration's trade stance has softened slightly in recent weeks, but the market remains cautious.
A negative surprise could easily send risk assets lower, including crypto. However, if tariffs come in softer than expected, it could ignite a fresh wave of buying that carries momentum well into the next quarter.
🏢 Institutional Flows and BlackRock's Bold Move
In more encouraging news, Bitcoin ETF flows continue to trend positive. Institutional interest remains steady, even as retail sentiment catches up.
Adding fuel to the fire, BlackRock is making another big move. After the success of its U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, the firm is launching a new Bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe.
The iShares Bitcoin ETP will be listed today on Euronext Paris, Xetra, and Euronext Amsterdam. This expansion marks a significant milestone for global Bitcoin adoption and could open the door to even more institutional capital.
BTC Currently Reprsents 1.3% of Global Money
🟩 Hash Ribbons Flash a Buy Signal
Another notable development: Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons indicator has just triggered a buy signal.
For those unfamiliar, Hash Ribbons is a widely respected on-chain indicator that analyzes the health of the Bitcoin network by tracking mining activity.
When the short-term hash rate drops below the longer-term trend, it typically signals miner capitulation - often a sign of market bottoms.
A buy signal is triggered when the short-term hash rate begins recovering and crosses back above the longer-term trend, suggesting that miners are returning and network stress is easing.
Historically, this indicator has been reliable in predicting key turning points in Bitcoin’s price cycle. While it’s not a guarantee, it’s yet another signal pointing toward a potential shift in market direction.
Final Thoughts
The market is beginning to show early signs of strength, but caution is still warranted. A retest of the $76,000 level for Bitcoin is very much on the table, especially if the April tariffs bring any surprises.
If macro conditions stay in check, Q2 could be the breakout quarter many investors have been waiting for.
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SOCIAL SENTIMENT
💲 Stablecoin Supremacy? Big Players, Bigger Revenue
Stablecoins may be flying under the radar in the media, but behind the scenes, they’re becoming a major power player in crypto.
💸 Tether’s USDT is pulling in over $500 million in monthly revenue
💵 Circle’s USDC is making around $150 million/month and growing fast
📈 And the stablecoin supply is expanding steadily
Even in U.S. government discussions, stablecoins are now center stage. Officials have openly said they’re working on clear rules and frameworks to support stablecoin growth. And yes, Trump himself is set to launch his own stablecoin called USD1.
This has sparked speculation about which DeFi projects stand to benefit most from this stablecoin wave.
📌 Investor Favorites: AAVE & CURVE
🟩 AAVE
Aave is a battle-tested, non-custodial lending protocol. As stablecoin adoption rises, protocols like Aave become essential infrastructure, enabling people to lend, borrow, and earn interest on-chain. It's been a go-to platform for over 4 years and is seen as one of the most reliable plays in DeFi.
🟦 CURVE (CRV)
Curve is the largest DEX for stablecoins, built for low-slippage, efficient trading. With more stablecoins in the system, Curve’s utility and volume are set to grow. Notably, prominent investors like CredibleCrypto and SmallCapScience are already taking positions in CRV, citing it as a potential sleeper in the next wave.
💡 Bottom Line:
The stablecoin narrative is heating up fast. With big revenue, growing regulatory attention, and real-world use cases tied to dollar dominance, this sector is likely to be a major theme in Q2 and beyond.
📍 Watch projects like AAVE and CRV - they could be key beneficiaries in this next phase of growth.
NEWS OVERVIEW
The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰
Circle’s USDC Set for Japan Debut With SBI, Local Exchanges
Circle and SBI VC Trade will launch USDC in Japan this week, marking a major step under the country’s stablecoin framework.
Polymarket Adds Solana Deposits Amid Regulatory Shift
Prediction market Polymarket now supports Solana deposits as it expands access, despite ongoing global regulatory challenges.
Binance Suspends Employee Over Insider Trading Allegations
Binance suspended a Wallet team member for allegedly front-running a token launch using confidential information from BNB Chain.
Kentucky Passes Bill to Protect Self-Custody and Crypto Mining
Kentucky has enacted HB 701, guaranteeing residents’ rights to self-custody crypto and protecting mining from discriminatory laws.
YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY
Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️
🎙️ Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Is Testing a Key Level (Mar 25, 2025)
Bitcoin’s Next Big Test: Can It Break Through?
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is at an important turning point as it moves back up to its bull market support band — a technical zone that often acts like a “make or break” level.
1. BTC Is Approaching Resistance
Bitcoin is climbing toward a key range:
📌 $88.5K–$95K — this is where Bitcoin has struggled before.
📌 If it breaks through, that’s bullish.
📌 If it gets rejected, we may see another dip before trying again later.
2. This Pattern Has Happened Before
Cowen compares current price action to past cycles: ✅ In previous years, BTC dipped in spring but recovered in summer.
✅ In 2017, summer was strong — this cycle might follow a similar path.
✅ Bitcoin is also behaving like the Nasdaq (QQQ) did before a bounce.
3. Macro Factors Still Matter
Upcoming economic data in early-to-mid April could impact markets.
So far, tariff threats from Trump are being toned down, which helps risk sentiment.
4. Altcoins Still Weak
Bitcoin dominance is rising.
📌 Cowen believes BTC will outperform altcoins for now.
📌 If Bitcoin falls, altcoins will likely drop even harder.
🟢 Final Take:
Bitcoin is in a critical spot. If it pushes above $95K, the bull run could continue.
But a short-term pullback is very possible before a real breakout later this summer.
🎙️ Lark Davis – April 2 Might Be Bullish, Not Bearish (Mar 25, 2025)
Markets Are Scared — Lark Thinks That’s Bullish
Lark Davis says everyone is panicking about tariffs and inflation — but that might actually be a good setup for a crypto rally starting in April.
1. Investor Fear Is Overdone
Lark explains how people often react emotionally to bad news — like Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2 — and assume the worst.
✅ But markets often bottom before the event happens.
✅ If tariffs aren’t as bad as feared, markets could bounce fast.
2. This Has Happened Before
Examples:
📌 In 2018, tariffs spooked markets but didn’t kill the bull run.
📌 During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, markets bounced before the crisis ended.
3. April Looks Surprisingly Bullish
A few reasons why Lark thinks April might surprise people:
✅ Global liquidity (M2) is rising — that fuels markets.
✅ Oil supply is up, helping to lower inflation.
✅ Tax cuts and interest rate cuts could arrive soon.
✅ And Trump may end up softening the tariff rollout.
4. Don’t Follow the Herd
Lark reminds viewers:
📌 Smart investors buy when fear is high.
📌 Emotional traders often buy the top and sell the bottom.
🟢 Final Take:
April 2 could mark the start of a rally — not the end.
If markets realize things aren’t as bad as they feared, Bitcoin and crypto could move up fast.
The information provided in this newsletter is for general informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Please consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice that considers your individual financial situation and goals.