Storm Not Over

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Choppiness Continues

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market is still moving with choppy price action, so let’s break it down.

💹 Yesterday brought a short-lived recovery as Bitcoin pushed toward $114k before stalling out. The bounce quickly faded, dragging altcoins lower in the hours after.

❌ There are still no convincing signs of a bottom. Today’s US macro data only added to the pressure:

• Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected, signaling a strong labor market.

• US GDP showed faster-than-expected growth.

This combination points to a resilient economy, which strengthens the Dollar and reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. A stronger Dollar means tighter liquidity - less fuel for risk assets like crypto.

Adding to the caution, the S&P 500 looks primed for a 5–8% correction. That kind of pullback would likely weigh on Bitcoin, with a move toward $108k or even $104k increasingly on the table.

The setup remains clear: Dollar strength while stocks and crypto correct. Patience and risk management are key until a clearer bottom forms.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

How Low Can We Go?

😬 With downside pressure building, traders should be ready for deeper tests.

BTC’s first key support sits near $108k. If that level fails to hold, $104k is the next major zone to watch.

Altcoins face an even tougher road. 

Choppy Bitcoin action means limited upside for alts, and while a major leverage flush has already hit, there’s still plenty of open interest that could trigger further liquidations.

We expect 10–20% additional drawdowns across many altcoins over the next 1–3 weeks if selling persists.

The Fear & Greed Index has now slipped from Neutral to Fear, but historically, markets don’t find true bottoms until Extreme Fear sets in. Keep an eye on that shift as a potential signal for when accumulation opportunities may return.

🛡️ For now, staying cautious and defensive remains the best play.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Plasma blockchain launches with $2B and XPL token
Plasma has gone live with its mainnet, rolling out its XPL token and over 100 DeFi integrations. The network starts with $2 billion in stablecoin liquidity and zero-fee USDT transfers.

M2 invests $20M in Ethena to push synthetic dollars in Middle East
UAE’s M2 Capital has invested $20 million into Ethena’s governance token ENA, aiming to grow adoption of its synthetic dollar USDe across the region.

Vitalik highlights PeerDAS as key to Ethereum’s scaling future
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the Fusaka upgrade’s PeerDAS feature will be critical for scaling the network, helping nodes verify data without storing it all.

Nine European banks join forces on euro stablecoin
ING, UniCredit, and seven other banks are creating a euro-backed stablecoin, aiming for a 2026 launch under EU MiCA rules.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – S&P 500: Where to Next? (25.09.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen says the S&P 500 is entering its usual weak window for post-election years, which could mean a pullback in late September to mid-October. That weakness, however, often lines up with Bitcoin finding its next low.

• Outlook: Expect a short-term dip, but nothing that breaks the broader uptrend. Bitcoin could bottom early during this S&P pullback.

• Seasonality: Post-election years usually see weak spots in late Q1 and again in late September–October. Cowen sees this as part of the cycle.

• Levels to watch: A 5–6% drop would put the S&P back at its bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA).

• Market signals: The Russell 2000 hitting new highs is a frothy sign-Cowen expects the S&P to cool down as smaller caps correct.

• Crypto connection: Historically, Bitcoin often leads the S&P, finding a low before equities do and then rallying out first.

Bottom line: Cowen expects near-term weakness for the S&P, but sees it as routine cycle behavior. For crypto, it could mark the moment BTC sets its base for the next leg higher.

Coin Bureau – $200K Bitcoin Still Possible? The Truth Behind the US BTC Reserve (25.09.2025 Summary)

CoinBureau’s Nick digs into the chaos around the US “strategic Bitcoin reserve.” A Freedom of Information request revealed major discrepancies, leaving the market confused - but the bigger story may be that Bitcoin doesn’t need government backing at all.

• Outlook: The reserve is stuck in bureaucracy, but BTC’s fundamentals remain strong. A $200K target is still possible if supply shocks hit.

• The problem: Agencies haven’t delivered reports on transferring seized BTC. Even worse, the US Marshals Service reported just 29K BTC held, far below the 200K+ BTC many assumed.

• Mixed messaging: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the US wouldn’t buy more BTC, triggering a sharp selloff, before later walking back his comments.

• The bill: Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Act proposes buying 200K BTC per year — more than the annual new supply. But chances of passing are tiny (≈1%).

• Narratives: Bulls like Saylor and Wood see it as transformative, while critics argue it undermines Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos.

• Fundamentals: Regardless of government action, spot ETFs have brought in $55B+, and 74% of BTC supply is illiquid, showing strong private accumulation.

Bottom line: The US reserve plan has stalled, but Bitcoin doesn’t need it. Institutional demand and long-term holders are already creating the conditions for a major supply squeeze.

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