A Market Without Conviction

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Crypto on the Sidelines

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Crypto is falling behind again while capital keeps finding better momentum elsewhere.

Stocks, commodities, and energy have been doing a better job holding gains, and investors are noticing. When people look around for where to park capital, crypto hasn’t been the obvious choice.

Recent outflows tell that story clearly. A large amount of money left crypto investment products last week, nearly undoing the inflows from the week before. That kind of reversal shows how quickly confidence can disappear. Investors aren’t committed right now. If conditions worsen, they’re happy to step aside.

Bitcoin drifting toward the upper $80Ks isn’t dramatic by itself. What matters is how it gets there. Bounces don’t last, and price keeps rolling over after short rallies. It feels like there are fewer buyers willing to defend levels, while sellers show up quickly on any strength.

Macro issues are doing most of the damage. 

• Political uncertainty in the U.S. and shutdown risk have pushed markets into a more cautious mood.

• Crypto hasn’t acted as protection in that environment. Instead, it’s moving like the first risk asset that gets sold when people want to reduce exposure.

Institutional behavior lines up with that view. Most of the recent selling came from U.S.-based products, which is important since that’s where ETF demand has been strongest. A few places still added small positions, and some individual assets held up better than others, but not enough to change the overall picture.

Right now, the market feels weak but not panicked. There’s no rush to buy, and no urgency to chase price higher. Until flows calm down and price can hold a move up, crypto remains on the back foot. ⚠️ 

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Balance Sheets Are Hurting

❗️ Sentiment is uneasy. Not fearful enough to crash the market, but negative enough to keep people on the sidelines.

One of the biggest talking points was an old Ethereum wallet suddenly becoming active after nearly nine years. The wallet moved 50,000 ETH, worth roughly $145 million, to a Gemini-linked address.

• While that doesn’t automatically mean the ETH is being sold, traders tend to assume distribution when dormant wallets wake up during weak price action. The wallet still holds over 85,000 ETH, which only adds to the nervousness.

On the corporate side, Metaplanet isn’t doing great either. The company reported about $680 million in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings for fiscal 2025 after BTC fell sharply from where much of its treasury was accumulated. While the losses are mostly accounting-related and don’t impact day-to-day operations, the headline itself reinforces how painful drawdowns are for companies holding large crypto positions.

🌏️ Macro discussions are also high. Traders are paying close attention to talk around potential intervention in the Japanese yen and the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. The theory is simple: if major currencies lose value, assets priced in those currencies usually rise over time. Stocks, metals, and commodities have already reflected that.

Crypto hasn’t. That’s where sentiment splits. Some see crypto as the obvious catch-up trade if currency debasement continues. Others point out that money is still leaving crypto products, and price action hasn’t confirmed that rotation yet.

For now, the mood is cautious and detail-focused. Traders are watching whale movements, company disclosures, and macro signals closely, but they’re not acting aggressively. Confidence hasn’t returned, and until it does, even neutral headlines are being interpreted through a defensive lens.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Japan Could Approve Its First Crypto ETFs by 2028
Japan is expected to greenlight crypto ETFs later this decade, following US success and regional momentum from Hong Kong and South Korea.

Ethereum Foundation Launches Post-Quantum Security Push
Ethereum’s core developers formed a dedicated post-quantum team and added a $1 million research prize to prepare the network for future cryptographic threats.

SEC Drops Gemini Earn Case After Full Investor Repayment
The SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Gemini with prejudice after Earn users recovered all funds, ending a three-year crypto lending legal battle.

Dogecoin ETFs Expand, but Wall Street Interest Stays Limited
Another Dogecoin ETF launched in the US, yet trading volumes remain muted as institutional appetite for memecoins continues to lag.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Ethereum: Dubious Speculation (26.01.2026 Summary)

Cowen looks at ETH through a Bitcoin-led bear market lens. His main point is that Ethereum’s near-term direction is less about ETH fundamentals and more about the market risk Bitcoin is creating right now.

Key Points

• Cowen believes crypto is in a Bitcoin bear market, and that’s the dominant risk for Ethereum

• He argues this cycle topped on apathy, not euphoria, which usually leads to slower, time-based downside instead of a fast crash

• He focuses heavily on ETH/BTC, saying ETH can look fine in USD while still bleeding versus Bitcoin, which is the opportunity cost that matters

• He explains why he only started buying ETH after it “went home” on the BTC pair around April 2025, then rode the move into new highs

• Since ETH peaked earlier than expected and couldn’t follow Bitcoin’s later strength, he thinks the window for fresh all-time highs has likely passed for now

• Base case: ETH drifts down toward “fair value” around the $2,000 area over time, possibly sweeping prior lows before stabilizing

• He compares ETH’s situation to past cycles like 2019, where ETH chopped lower for months while policy stayed too tight for risk assets

• He says meaningful ETH strength usually needs much looser conditions, deeper rate cuts or real QE, and that’s hard to justify while stocks stay strong

• If ETH can reclaim the 21-week EMA and hold it, he’d reconsider, but until then he expects a grind inside the regression zone

Takeaway
Cowen’s call is basically “slow bleed, not capitulation.” He thinks ETH is stuck in a Bitcoin-driven bear market and likely drifts toward fair value before the next real cycle reset, unless it can decisively reclaim key trend levels.

Altcoin Daily – BITCOIN CRASHING (26.01.2026 Summary)

Altcoin Daily frames the current selloff as a short-term liquidity problem mixed with bigger cycle risk. Their message is basically: several catalysts are hitting at once, and even if some are temporary, the market is reacting like liquidity is tightening.

Key Points

• They point to a potential US government shutdown around the January 30 deadline as a major near-term risk, arguing shutdowns can reduce liquidity and crypto tends to react fast

• They say the Clarity Act could be a bullish catalyst, but a shutdown could delay progress, and uncertainty around the bill is creating extra pressure

• They highlight possible Japan yen intervention as a wildcard: it can cause a quick risk-off shock first, but if it weakens the dollar later, that can become supportive for risk assets

• They mention traders watching a downside support zone around the low $70Ks area for Bitcoin as a realistic level if panic accelerates

• They bring up digital asset treasury firms as another signal, saying some are now selling crypto (even if they are still “in the space” via tokenization plans), and that forced or strategic selling can add to downside volatility

• They end with the bigger narrative: Bitcoin cycles may be closer to an average 46-month rhythm than a clean four-year pattern, and some investors think the bear market started around October 2025 and could last 8 to 12 months

• The overall takeaway is not that every catalyst is guaranteed to be bearish, but that multiple liquidity and confidence hits at the same time can easily push price lower before conditions improve

Takeaway
Their base case is choppy downside driven by liquidity headlines and cycle timing, with the possibility that the same shocks that cause the drop could later set up the next rebound once policy and liquidity turn supportive again.

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