Ceasefire Holds, but GDP Sinks

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

🇺🇸 US Data Sends Mixed Signals

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! After weeks of geopolitical headlines, things are finally cooling off, but just as one fire goes out, another one sparks.

🟢 Middle East Peace Holds

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is still holding. That’s major. The US is even planning to meet with Iranian officials next week, which shows diplomatic momentum is building.

This peace is helping stabilize global risk sentiment. When investors stop fearing global conflict, they start looking for returns again. Crypto benefits from that shift, especially when combined with other bullish signals like ETF inflows or institutional buying.

📉 But US GDP Just Turned Negative

Here’s where things get tricky.

The US economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025. This is worse than the earlier -0.2% estimate and marks the first economic shrinkage since 2022.

• Most of the weakness is being blamed on the new wave of US tariffs, which are hurting trade and raising costs for businesses.

Crypto usually thrives when money gets easier. A slowing economy could push the Fed to start thinking about cuts, but not just yet. Right now, it’s more uncertainty than action.

🏛️ Powell Still in Cautious Mode

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke to Congress this week and stuck with his wait-and-see approach. He said the central bank needs more clarity on the effects of tariffs and inflation before making any moves on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump didn’t hold back. He criticized Powell again and said he’s already narrowing down his pick for a replacement, possibly by September.

Some other Fed officials are still backing Powell, arguing that the risk of inflation from tariffs means they should hold steady. Others are starting to call for rate cuts.

The Fed is clearly divided, and crypto is watching closely.

🔍 Why This Matters for Bitcoin

We’re seeing a tug-of-war between macro relief and economic warning signs.

• Ceasefire holding

• US economy slowing down

• Fed policy in limbo

• Political pressure heating up

Friday’s PCE inflation report could be the next big mover. If it shows inflation cooling, expectations for rate cuts will heat up and that’s bullish fuel for Bitcoin. If inflation comes in hot, we may get more chop before the next leg higher.

Stay ready. Volatility might just be getting started.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

🤔 Is Altseason Ever Coming?

The crypto market is holding up well, with Bitcoin continuing to dominate. Social sentiment shows strong conviction around BTC, while altcoins remain in the shadows for now. Many are asking the same question: Will there be another alt season?

✔️ We think the answer is yes, and here’s why.

📉 The US Dollar Is Falling Fast

The dollar has been trending down for six straight months, dropping by more than 11%. When the dollar weakens, investors look for stores of value like Bitcoin and gold. As liquidity flows into crypto, altcoins tend to catch up quickly. Historically, a falling dollar has set the stage for broader crypto rallies.

📜 Regulation Is Finally Favoring Crypto

Regulatory sentiment has made a huge shift. The difference between the current SEC and the previous one under Gary Gensler is night and day. Gensler was notorious for his anti-crypto stance, launching lawsuits and creating uncertainty. Under the current administration, we’re seeing a more constructive approach, and that’s giving the industry breathing room to grow.

🏛️ New Fed Leadership Coming Soon

Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026, and Donald Trump is already signaling that a replacement is on the way. One rumored pick is Scott Bessent, a close ally who’s seen as pro-liquidity and market-friendly. Even just the announcement of a new, more dovish Fed chair could trigger a surge in appetite for risk assets, especially altcoins.

Veteran trader Arthur Hayes recently said the bull market is still intact and that new BTC all-time highs are only a matter of time. We’re on the same page. Bitcoin remains king for now, but when conditions align, altcoins won’t stay quiet for long.

Alt season isn't dead. It's just waiting for its cue.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Telegram Users Can Now Stake TON for Rewards With Institutional-Grade Security
Telegram users can stake as little as 10 TON and earn 4.7% APY through a new tool backed by P2P.org and Ton Whales.

Kraken Secures EU License Under MiCA Framework
Kraken gains approval from Ireland’s central bank, enabling regulated crypto services across 27 EU nations under MiCA rules.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Ordered to Prepare for Crypto in Mortgages
The FHFA directs mortgage giants to treat crypto as a mortgage asset, sparking both support and criticism over exchange restrictions.

Coinbase Launches Wrapped ADA and LTC on Ethereum Layer 2 Base
Coinbase adds wrapped ADA and LTC to its Base network, expanding DeFi access and growing its suite of tokenized assets.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Coin Bureau – They're Going ALL IN on Crypto: This is What Wall St is Buying! (26.06.2025 Summary)

The crypto market may seem uncertain right now, but behind the scenes, adoption is booming, especially among major companies and institutions. A new report from Coinbase lays out just how fast things are moving, and the message is clear: we're still early.

📊 Big Business is Embracing Blockchain

• 60% of Fortune 500 executives say their companies are exploring blockchain ("onchain") initiatives.

• On average, these companies are now running 10 projects each, up from just 6 last year.

• The most common uses? Payments, supply chain management, and blockchain infrastructure.

• Blockchain is not just a tech experiment anymore; it's seen as a serious business strategy and a gateway to new revenue.

💼 Small Businesses Are Catching On Too

• 34% of small and medium businesses (SMBs) now use crypto.

• 46% of the rest plan to start within 3 years.

• A huge 82% believe crypto can help solve major financial problems like:

  • High transaction fees

  • Cross-border payments

  • Cybersecurity

  • Slow payment processing

💸 Stablecoins Are Quietly Taking Over

• Stablecoin transfer volumes hit $719 billion in December 2024 and $717 billion in April 2025.

• Now they account for 10% of US currency in circulation, with a total supply of $247 billion.

• Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT) hold more US Treasury bills than some countries.

• SMBs are increasingly accepting stablecoins for payments, payroll, and international transfers.

• 84% of SMBs are interested in integrating them, and usage has more than doubled year over year.

🏛 Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) Are Exploding

• The value of tokenized RWAs has grown 245x since 2020.

• These include:

  • Treasuries for better yield and 24/7 liquidity

  • Invoices for improved cash flow and faster payments

  • Private credit for broader access to funding

🏦 Institutions Are Diving In

• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are among the most successful ever launched.

• 86% of institutional investors have crypto exposure or plan to this year.

• 59% plan to allocate more than 5% of their assets to crypto.

• Most are also exploring stablecoins and tokenized assets.

⚠️ Regulation Is the Final Puzzle Piece

• Despite the growth, regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest hurdle.

• 90% of Fortune 500 execs want clearer rules.

• Fragmented state-level laws are creating confusion and inconsistency.

• Talent is also leaving the US due to this uncertainty. The developer share in the US has halved since Ethereum launched.

🔮 What's Next?

• Clear regulation is expected soon. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says stablecoin and market structure legislation is on the way.

• Former President Trump is reportedly eager to sign the first big crypto bill.

• Once legal clarity arrives, institutional capital could flood the market, pushing prices and adoption even higher.

In a Nutshell:

Crypto isn’t running out of steam. It’s gearing up for the next big wave. Businesses of all sizes are adopting blockchain, stablecoins are becoming financial infrastructure, and institutions are preparing to make major investments. The final piece is regulation, and it's coming.

Josh Olszewicz – Alt Coins: Dead Cat University (26.06.2025 Summary)

Josh's latest market breakdown paints a realistic, if not harsh, picture for altcoin traders right now. While Bitcoin continues to hold strong and draw institutional attention, altcoins remain stuck, and in many cases, sinking further. Here's what you need to know.

🟢 Bitcoin Still Rules the Market

• Bitcoin dominance is near 66%, a cycle high, and the trend has been strong since 2022.

• All major dips in Bitcoin dominance have been bought, and the market continues to favor BTC over everything else.

• On days when BTC is green, most altcoins are still red. That's a clear sign that alts are being left behind.

📉 Altcoins: A String of "Dead Cat" Bounces

• Altcoins keep showing short-lived spikes, quick bounces that immediately fall apart.

• These are known as "dead cat bounces," and we’ve seen this pattern repeatedly in recent months.

• The altcoin market (measured by "Total 2") looks weak and could keep grinding sideways or down into Q3.

💹 Why the Money Isn’t Going Into Alts

• Legacy market plays like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are outperforming most altcoins by a wide margin.

• People are chasing volatility and opportunity in Bitcoin-aligned products or leverage ETFs rather than speculating on risky alts.

• Even ETH and SOL are down more than 25% year-to-date, while MSTR is up significantly, roughly double Bitcoin's performance.

🔍 Comparative Charts Tell the Story

• MSTR and leveraged BTC products are outperforming assets like Doge, Pepe, and Solana.

• Many altcoin charts show multi-year lows or prices stuck below important technical levels.

• Even NFTs and side-market assets like Pudgy Penguins or CryptoPunks have stalled, showing we're far from any real altcoin hype cycle.

🕰 Not Yet Altseason

• The technicals aren’t confirming a new altcoin run. Most alts are below their key trend indicators like the cloud.

• ETH has the best potential, but it still needs to break above $2700 to trigger real bullish momentum.

• A breakout may come in Q4, but for now, the market favors patience and caution.

🛑 Most Alts Are Untradeable

• Many popular altcoins (LINK, ADA, XRP, LTC, DOT, etc.) are showing no clear bullish patterns.

• Josh suggests watching for clean breakouts above trend signals, especially above cloud levels. Until then, most setups are "too hard" or not worth the risk.

• A few names like Maker (MKR) or Sei are showing early signs of life, but they’re rare exceptions.

🧠 Bottom Line

• It’s just not altseason. Not yet.

• The smart money is sticking with BTC and BTC-related assets.

• The technicals suggest more sideways or down action for altcoins through Q3.

• If there’s going to be a run, it’s more likely to come in Q4, and when it does, the signs will be obvious.

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