Cooling Off or Breaking Down?

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Turbo Bullish? Not Yet.

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! After another shaky Monday, we roll into Tuesday with the market still struggling to find its footing.

BTC and ETH both look vulnerable here. The key setups:

• ETH: After running hot, it’s lining up for a mean reversion (basically drifting back toward its average) with a target near $3,600.

• BTC: Stuck with weak momentum, for potential strength $112k should be reclaimed; if not, it could pull it down to around $100K if buyers don’t step in.

🐂 Bulls? There is no reason to be “turbo bullish” for BTC at this time. ETH, meanwhile, looks like it just needs a cooling-off period after running hot.

🐳 And then there’s the whale drama. Some giant wallet on Hyperliquid has been offloading 20K–30K BTC chunks. No one knows how deep that bag goes, but the market clearly hates it; traders are spooked and quick to hit sell when the whale does.

This week’s big macro watch: GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday.

PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) is basically the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. It tracks what people are actually spending money on, and it adjusts when buying habits change

🔥 If Friday’s PCE print comes in hot (showing inflation still running too high), the Fed has less reason to cut rates in September. And if Powell hesitates on cuts, risk assets, stocks, crypto, you name it won’t be happy.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Traders on Edge

The mood is shaky right now. Bitcoin keeps drifting lower, and people are already talking about drops toward $100K–$102K and even lower.

ETH stalling under $5K didn’t help confidence either, and altcoins are mostly looking weak.

So far, the only alt holding its ground is Hyperliquid (HYPE). Rising platform revenue keeps fueling buybacks, and in just the past 30 days, the foundation has scooped up over $100M worth of tokens.

It’s easily the most socially loved project of this cycle, much like Avalanche and Solana were in the last one. Outside of HYPE, almost every other alt is having a tough time.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Bitwise Files for Spot Chainlink ETF
Bitwise has filed with the SEC to launch a Chainlink ETF, giving investors regulated exposure to LINK without staking features.

Pantera Aims to Raise $1.25B for Solana Treasury
Pantera Capital plans to raise $1.25 billion to create a Solana-focused treasury company, potentially the largest of its kind.

ETHZilla Approves $250M Buyback, Expands ETH Holdings
Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla announced a $250 million stock buyback while growing its ETH stash to more than 102,000 tokens.

deBridge Adds Tron to Cross-Chain Protocol
deBridge has integrated Tron into its interoperability system, linking the USDT-heavy network with Ethereum, Solana, and 25+ blockchains.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band (26.08.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen shared his latest view on Bitcoin’s price action and the importance of the Bull Market Support Band (20-week SMA and 21-week EMA).

• He believes recent rallies are temporary and will likely be sold off.

• Based on past cycles, Bitcoin usually revisits this support band ($107k) in September during post-halving years. So, he expects Bitcoin to touch it within the next few weeks.

• If bulls defend the band, the market could reset for another move up later in the year, possibly October.

• If Bitcoin falls below the band, the next line of defense is the 50-week moving average ($95k). Historically, two weekly closes below that level often signal the end of a cycle and lead to big drops.

• Right now, Cowen sees the local top already in, and the short-term outlook points down toward support before the cycle continues.

In short: Bitcoin is likely heading for a healthy test of its bull market support band soon. That test will be key in showing if the trend remains strong or if deeper corrections could follow.

Bankless – Will Crypto Peak in 2025… or Run Into 2026? Onchain Data Signals (26.08.2025 Summary)

On the Bankless podcast, Ryan and Michael (from the DeFi Report) discussed whether the current crypto cycle will follow the usual 4-year pattern or stretch into 2026.

• Classic 4-year cycles: Bitcoin topped in Dec 2013, Dec 2017, and late 2021. Following that pattern, the next peak would be around Q4 2025.

• Why it could extend:

  • Global liquidity is still expanding, which supports risk assets like Bitcoin and ETH.

  • Banks are loosening lending standards, though loan demand is still low. This means “dry powder” could enter markets later.

  • The Fed may cut rates if the labor market weakens, pushing investors out of cash and into assets like crypto.

  • On-chain data shows long-term holders selling, but not at extreme levels. The market hasn’t reached “euphoria” yet.

• Signals to watch:

  • If Bitcoin corrects but holds above key support levels, that could reset the market and allow for an extended run into 2026.

  • If ETH breaks higher fast (5K+), that might point to a more traditional Q4 2025 peak.

Takeaway: The 4-year cycle still holds weight, but this time could be different. Liquidity, Fed policy, and institutional flows may stretch the bull run into 2026.

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