BTC Breakout

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Bitcoin Rallies

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! BTC just rocketed higher - let’s break down what’s happening.

After a very bearish last week, the market staged a strong relief rally over the weekend and carried that momentum into today.

• BTC Surge: Most of last week’s selling pressure came from Binance, but selling volume dropped sharply late Friday. Since then, price action has steadily climbed, sending BTC from $108k to $114k.

• Altcoin Lag: Altcoins have barely moved, which has pushed BTC dominance higher. The chart now points toward 60% dominance, suggesting alts could continue to underperform if this trend holds.

Is This a Trend Reversal?

Was $108k the bottom? Despite the powerful move, we are not calling a full reversal yet for a few key reasons:

• ETF flows remain negative

• The Dollar sits on firm support and could grind higher

• Altcoin open interest is still elevated

• Equities haven’t had a meaningful correction - a drop there could weigh on crypto

This week also brings key U.S. jobs data (openings, jobless claims, unemployment) plus the monthly and quarterly candle closes. How those candles settle will help define the next market structure.

For now, we treat this as a relief rally - not a confirmed trend change.

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Altcoins on the Back Foot

Despite BTC’s breakout, alts failed to spark - a key warning sign. BTC dominance is rising toward 60%, and capital is clearly rotating into BTC and stablecoins rather than chasing higher-risk alt plays.

If BTC cools off or pulls back, alts are likely to drop harder and recover less. We still target $104k for BTC, which could translate into another 10–20% downside for alts if that scenario unfolds.

Other pressure points:

• Open interest: Alt OI remains high at 35% of total OI. Historical data show that major alt bottoms often form closer to 30%, suggesting more room for liquidation.

• Liquidity and volume: Spot volume is thinning, increasing the risk of sharp wicks if BTC volatility returns.

Until OI washes out and we see stronger spot demand, we view altcoins as at risk for another leg down.

Our approach: no FOMO - we’re waiting for clearer signals such as a decisive drop in OI, higher spot buying, or BTC stabilizing.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

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Hyperliquid’s Hypurr NFTs soar past $60K floor
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Solana ETFs could launch within weeks
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YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band (29.09.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen reviews Bitcoin’s bull market support band, comparing current price action to past cycles. His focus is on whether BTC can hold this key level as Q4 begins.

Key Points

• Cycle similarities - Current BTC structure looks like 2020, with a rally after capitulation, sideways chop, and testing the support band. Also echoes 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin bounced off the same zone.

• September pattern - Bitcoin saw two weeks up, then two weeks down, almost identical to previous cycles. Cowen warns a week or two more of consolidation is still possible.

• Gold connection - In past cycles, gold breakouts coincided with temporary Bitcoin weakness. That’s been the case again, suggesting history may be repeating.

• Support holding - So far, BTC has stayed above the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA. No weekly close below them is a positive sign.

• Ethereum’s outlook - ETH could tag its own 21-week EMA if BTC wicks lower, or simply move sideways until support catches up. Long-term trend still points higher.

• Caution for Q4 - As a post-halving year, history suggests cycle tops often arrive in late Q4. Cowen advises against assuming this time will be different.

Final Takeaway

Bitcoin continues to respect its bull market support band, echoing past bullish cycles. Some short-term chop may remain, but holding above these levels keeps the door open for a Q4 rally.

Ivan On Tech – OCTOBER IS A LIE!!!!! (whale explains) (29.09.2025 Summary)

Ivan on Tech warns that while October has a strong track record for Bitcoin, most traders misunderstand when the gains arrive. Early October often fakes people out, with the real pump usually happening later in the month.

Key Points

• History shows patience wins - In 2023 and 2024, BTC dipped in the first half of October before rallying strongly later. Only in 2021 did it pump immediately at the start.

• Seasonal trend - When September ends green, October is also green most of the time. Historically, gains range between +10% and +50%.

• Market psychology - Many traders FOMO in with high leverage on Oct 1, get shaken out in early red days, then miss the real rally.

• Potential upside - If October returns are near the upper bound and November follows with another strong month, Bitcoin could approach 200K by year end.

• Macro note - The Fed cut odds dipped slightly, but Ivan remains bullish long-term, expecting Trump’s future Fed appointments to push massive liquidity into markets.

• Altcoin view - Big caps like BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB should lead first. Alt season could follow later in the cycle.

Final Takeaway

October is bullish on average, but the pump usually comes mid to late month. Traders who rush in early risk being shaken out. Ivan’s outlook stays optimistic, with Bitcoin possibly hitting 200K by year end if October and November align.

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