Markets Brace for the Fed

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Market Prepares

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Markets are on edge as FOMC approaches so let’s quickly dive in.

It’s FOMC day, and all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s press conference in just a few short hours. Historically, markets turn risk-off before these events, but with everyone already expecting a 25 bps cut, the real focus will be Powell’s tone - especially if he hints at ending QT or delivers a surprisingly dovish message.

The bigger issue? Data integrity.

With the U.S. government still shut down, key data releases are missing. Even recent employment reports have been partly guessed. We’re running on limited visibility, which makes interpreting Fed policy moves even harder.

The most important chart this week isn’t Bitcoin - it’s Truflation.

Truflation is a real-time inflation index that scrapes millions of online prices to track how costs are changing day to day. Unlike government CPI data, it updates continuously and reflects what consumers are actually paying.

It just broke out to a new multi-month high near 2.5%,. If it pushes toward 3.5%, it could shatter hopes for further Fed rate cuts this year.

In short, inflation may be quietly heating up again - a warning sign for both policymakers and markets.

At the same time, the job market is flashing weakness. UPS is cutting 48,000 jobs right before the busiest delivery season of the year, Amazon has eliminated nearly 30,000 positions, and others like Target and Meta are also downsizing. These layoffs could be early warning signal worth watching.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

🏃 Altcoin Movers

As we await the big event, parts of the market have already started to move. Here’s a quick rundown of the latest movers and what’s driving them:

• Trump Memecoin: Rumors are circulating that a treasury fund may be forming to buy TRUMP, sending traders scrambling to position early and catch the momentum.

• Solana (SOL): Showing relative strength after Grayscale announced a Staking ETF, which has boosted sentiment across the ecosystem.

• Pump (PUMP): Revenue is recovering post-liquidation event, and with no major token unlocks until 2026, investors see some short-term stability.

• Hype (HYPE): Still running hot after ETF filing headlines and a $1 billion treasury raise aimed at token accumulation.

• Virtual: Gaining traction thanks to growing attention around the new x402 agents narrative.

Overall, there are small pockets of outperformance in the altcoin space, but most alts remain weak relative to BTC.

In this environment, patience is key. We’re staying selective and waiting for stronger confirmation before rotating into alts.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Grayscale Launches Solana Staking ETF
Grayscale introduced its Solana staking ETF (GSOL) on NYSE Arca, expanding investor access despite the ongoing government shutdown.

21Shares Files for Hyperliquid ETF
21Shares has filed for a new ETF tracking Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, joining the surge of crypto fund launches this week.

TeraWulf Plans $500M Convertible Note Offering
Bitcoin miner TeraWulf will raise $500 million to fund its new Texas data center and expand into AI infrastructure.

World Liberty Financial Rewards Early Users
World Liberty Financial will distribute 8.4 million WLFI tokens to early adopters of its USD1 stablecoin rewards program.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Pre-FOMC (29.10.2025 Summary)

With the next Fed meeting looming, Benjamin Cowen breaks down why the bigger risk to crypto might not be rate cuts - but whether the Fed ends quantitative tightening (QT). He explains how this macro policy shift could affect Bitcoin dominance, altcoin performance, and the overall cycle outlook.

Cowen’s Outlook – Key Points

• QT matters more than rate cuts – While another rate cut is expected, Cowen says the bigger focus should be on the Fed’s balance sheet and QT policy.

• Ending QT could mark a cycle top – In past cycles, Bitcoin topped before QT ended. If QT ends soon, it may signal the bull market is nearly over.

• Altcoins not ready to lead – Cowen warns that if QT ends and liquidity shifts away from Bitcoin, it may not create an “altseason” but signal a structural shift in the market.

• Bitcoin dominance is key – As long as QT continues, Cowen believes liquidity will favor Bitcoin over alts. Ending QT could weaken this dynamic and introduce downside risk.

• This cycle isn’t like 2021 – High interest rates and QT have made this a very different environment, where only top assets like BTC are gaining while most altcoins bleed.

• The four-year cycle still fits – If QT ends in early 2026, it would align with Bitcoin topping in Q4 2025 - consistent with past cycle timing.

Final Takeaway
Cowen advises watching QT, not just interest rates. If the Fed ends QT early, it could mark the beginning of the end for this bull run. For now, sticking with Bitcoin remains the safer play until there’s clearer macro guidance.

Brian Jung – why the 2026 crypto bull run is the most pivotal year in our lifetime (29.10.2025 Summary)

After a 4-month break, Brian Jung returns with a deep macro and strategy breakdown on why 2026 could be a defining moment for crypto. From rate cuts and regulation to Binance dominance and airdrop plays, he lays out why retail needs to be patient, prepared, and positioned.

Brian’s Outlook – Key Points

• Massive Liquidation Was a Wake-Up Call – The October crash wiped out $19B, exposing how fragile and over-leveraged crypto markets still are. More liquidations are likely to come.

• Liquidity Conditions Are Shifting – Rate cuts are back, unemployment is rising, and the Fed is expected to cut at least two more times. Markets are already pricing that in, and liquidity is slowly turning risk-on.

• Regulation is Becoming a Catalyst – Under the Trump administration, pro-crypto legislation like the Genius Act and Clarity Act has removed major legal uncertainty. The regulatory tone has shifted from hostile to cooperative, paving the way for mass adoption.

• Institutional Interest Is Ramping Up – From Coinbase and BlackRock to tokenized treasuries and base layer ecosystems, major players are positioning early. ETFs and treasury strategies are pouring billions into crypto.

• Narratives to Watch: Binance and Base – Jung sees strong activity around the BNB ecosystem, with memecoins and DEX tokens like Cake and Aster gaining steam. He also expects Coinbase’s Base to heat up again if they launch a native token.

• Airdrops & Pre-Launch Plays – Projects like Lighter, Abstract, and Morpho are top contenders for high-upside airdrops or retail-friendly scaling narratives in 2026.

Final Takeaway
Brian emphasizes patience and preparation. While conditions are aligning for a potential altcoin season, he urges viewers to wait for clear confirmation like Bitcoin breaking its all-time high again. Until then, stack capital, build conviction, and be ready to act when “easy mode” returns.

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