Fed Cuts Rates, But No One’s Celebrating

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Market Reacts

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! FOMC day is behind us, and the market didn’t like what it heard.

The Fed went ahead with the expected 0.25% rate cut and said quantitative tightening will officially end in December.

Sounds like good news, right ❓️ Well, not exactly.

Powell made it pretty clear that a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed. He said there are “strongly differing views” among Fed members about what to do next. Basically, no one’s on the same page. And since the government shutdown means there’s barely any new economic data coming out, the Fed’s kind of flying blind. Powell hinted that could be a reason to hit pause until they have a clearer picture.

🎙️ Powell’s Remarks

• The job market’s cooling off a bit, but nothing’s breaking yet.

• Inflation could still creep higher even though last month’s numbers looked a little better.

• The Fed wants to shorten its balance sheet (basically shrink its money footprint), but that won’t last forever,they’ll probably start adding cash back into the system later on.

• Powell doesn’t think AI is another dot-com bubble, he pointed out that today’s big tech companies actually make money.

• And for now, there’s no sign of big credit problems or cracks in the economy.

Powell said the rate cut was more of a “just in case” move to protect jobs while the Fed tries to figure out what’s really going on. With the shutdown still dragging on, they probably won’t even have the October inflation or jobs data before the next meeting in December. So for now, it’s all about playing defense and managing risk.

🔻 Market Reaction

After the press conference, the dollar ripped higher, showing that traders didn’t buy Powell’s mild tone. A stronger dollar usually sucks liquidity out of risk assets, and crypto felt it fast.

Bitcoin tried to push back above $116k earlier this week but failed, and it quickly dropped to $108k today. The move shows how fragile things are right now. Even good news isn’t lifting crypto prices, which tells you how nervous the market is.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Grim Mood Across the Market

Social chatter has turned gloomy. "Cycle is over" talk is everywhere, and traders are tired of the chop.

BTC dominance keeps climbing while alts make lower highs, suggesting another breakdown may come soon. Watch for wicks from the October 10 liquidation to be partly revisited if weakness continues.

Key BTC levels: $106k and $102k. A break below could open $90k.

The idea that BTC could benefit from rotation out of gold is also fading. BTC briefly outperformed gold last week but is now rejecting again. A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed, hinting at potential deeper downside.

The “final leg” bull theory is being tested. If the dollar keeps strengthening, crypto could stay under pressure for weeks if not months. For now, defensive positioning and patience remain key.

NEWS OVERVIEW

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YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Ivan On Tech – FED JUST RUGPULLED US BAD!! (30.10.2025 Summary)

Ivan believes the Fed’s latest rate decision triggered a short-term bearish trend for Bitcoin. While the Fed did cut rates as expected, Jerome Powell’s comments about future cuts being uncertain caused markets to sell off. Ivan explains why the market reacted negatively and what Bitcoin needs to do next to avoid a deeper pullback.

Ivan’s Outlook – Key Points

• Rate Cut Was Already Priced In - A 25 bps cut was fully expected, so the market didn’t react positively. Instead, Powell's uncertainty about a December cut spooked traders.

• Market Needs a Surprise to Pump - Ivan stresses it’s not about whether the Fed cuts, but whether they cut more or less than expected. No surprise = no pump.

• Bitcoin Forming Lower Highs - On the daily chart, Bitcoin is now in a potential downtrend. If it doesn’t break higher soon, a retest of 106K or even 100K is likely.

• Key Levels to Watch - Bitcoin must hold 100K short-term and 96K on a weekly close to stay bullish. Closing below those levels would flip the trend bearish.

• QT Ending = Long-Term Bullish - The Fed will stop quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1, which removes a major headwind and sets the stage for future easing.

• Retail Is Still in Stocks - Ivan notes that most retail investors are currently chasing AI stocks. A true rotation into crypto could happen later, especially if Bitcoin catches up.

Final Takeaway
Ivan remains cautiously bullish, with 70% portfolio exposure still in the market. But he warns that bulls must act soon to avoid a deeper pullback. The setup for 2026 still looks strong, especially as liquidity conditions improve - but in the short term, Bitcoin needs to show strength to confirm upside momentum.

CryptoBanter – What REALLY Happened at the FOMC!! Crypto Is In Danger! (30.10.2025 Summary)

Ran says crypto isn't reacting to good news because we’re deep in a correction. Despite bullish headlines - rate cuts, QT ending, and strong earnings - markets are still falling. Why? Because bottoming is a process. Ran explains that this is all part of the cycle and a setup for one final push.

Ran’s Outlook – Key Points

• FOMC was actually bullish - We got a 25 bps rate cut and confirmation QT ends by December. But Powell’s comments about stagflation and uncertain rate cuts spooked markets.

• Powell vs. Trump - Ran believes Powell is pressuring Trump to reopen the government, saying he can't cut rates without economic data. The shutdown is starting to affect the markets.

• Market isn’t reacting to news - Even with positive developments (Trump-Xi meeting, rate cut, strong earnings), Bitcoin keeps dropping. Ran says this proves markets don’t follow fundamentals in corrections.

• We’re in a shakeout - The market is trying to convince everyone the bull run is over. Only after that will the next big move begin.

• Bottoming is a slow process - Like in 2017 and 2021, corrections feel endless before massive upside. Ran expects BTC to touch 95K-98K and altcoins to find strong support.

• Final run coming - Once everyone gives up, crypto will surprise with a strong rally, especially into 2026.

Final Takeaway
Ran says don't let headlines distract you. The Fed meeting wasn’t bearish - we’re just in a correction that needs time to play out. Once sentiment bottoms out, the next big leg up will catch most investors off guard.

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