Bitcoin Bounces but Risks Remain

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Holding the Line

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market continues to be messy, so let’s make it a bit clearer.

It’s now the second day after FOMC, and things aren’t getting easier. Yesterday, Bitcoin retested $106k as we predicted, dragging altcoins down with it. Buyers stepped in today, pushing BTC back up toward $111k.

The question is, will it last ❓️ 

We see today’s move as a short-term relief rally, one that could extend into the weekend. The bounce from $106k looks leverage-driven, fueled mostly by perpetuals - meaning traders are taking quick positions rather than long-term bets.

The Coinbase premium indicator, which measures real buying demand, is falling again. ETF flows have turned negative, with BlackRock ETFs sending BTC and ETH to Coinbase to sell.

While it seems the market might be done with the immediate sell-off, the strong dollar continues to be a major drag. We don’t expect a straight-line decline but rather a choppy downtrend in the coming weeks.

On top of that, geopolitical tensions are rising again as the U.S. faces a conflict with Venezuela, adding a layer of uncertainty to already fragile sentiment.

• If BTC revisits $106k, we doubt it will hold this time. $102k is our next key support zone to watch.

For now, we’re reducing exposure, staying defensive, and waiting for better setups - likely in the next couple of weeks.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Exit Pumps?

After major liquidations, markets often see short-term gains, but real recovery takes time. The deeper the liquidation and the worse the seasonality, the longer it takes to find a sustainable floor.

Following events like October 10th, volatility limits tighten across major funds, forcing more risk reduction. Altcoin demand has vanished, and retail traders are still cautious. The market needs time to process redemptions and deleveraging before confidence returns.

For now, BTC & ETH must break recent highs before risk appetite truly improves.

We’re seeing now what traders call “exit pumps” - when large players push prices up to attract liquidity before selling into the move.

How it works:

• Prices get pumped higher to draw in new buyers.

• Liquidity increases as traders chase the move.

• Insiders use that liquidity to exit their positions.

• Once they’re out, buying pressure disappears, and prices often drop sharply.

We’re already seeing this in smaller coins like ai16z, and more will likely follow. If you spot sudden large pumps - stay cautious, they might just be exits in disguise.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Ethereum Devs Set December 3 for Fusaka Upgrade
Ethereum’s next big update, Fusaka, goes live on December 3 with major scalability boosts and validator improvements.

Strategy’s Q3 Profit Drops as Bitcoin Rally Fades
Strategy’s profit fell to $2.8 billion as Bitcoin cooled off, but it raised dividend yields to keep investors engaged.

JPMorgan: USDC Growing Faster Than Tether
JPMorgan says Circle’s USDC is outpacing Tether’s USDT in growth thanks to stronger regulation and rising institutional demand.

Standard Chartered Sees $2 Trillion Tokenized Asset Market by 2028
Standard Chartered predicts real-world asset tokenization will reach $2 trillion by 2028, with most of it on Ethereum.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – The Fed Announces QT Will End in December (31.10.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen breaks down the Fed’s latest moves - a rate cut to 4% and plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) by December. He connects these macro changes to past cycles and argues that Bitcoin could be nearing a major top. But he also cautions: don’t assume this time is different.

Benjamin’s Outlook – Key Points

• Fed cuts rate to 4% and ends QT in December – While both actions are bullish for liquidity, Cowen emphasizes the why matters: these are risk management moves, not crisis responses.

• QT end doesn't guarantee upside – In 2019, Bitcoin topped before QT ended. Cowen says if history repeats, we may already be at or near the top.

• Bitcoin dominance remains high – Altcoins have underperformed, and liquidity continues rotating back to BTC. This could support one last BTC push.

• If no breakout by December, upside is unlikely – Cowen believes that if Bitcoin doesn't hit new all-time highs soon, the cycle top might already be in or just ahead.

• Euphoria is missing – Unlike past tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, there's been little mania. Cowen warns this cycle could fizzle out slower and more quietly.

Final Takeaway
Cowen thinks Q4 2025 may mark the cycle top, especially if Bitcoin hits $130K–$140K. Without a breakout by December, he sees a slow bleed into 2026. For now, Bitcoin remains the safest hold.

Coin Bureau – Privacy Coins Rally: Zcash (ZEC) Is Leading the Charge (31.10.2025 Summary)

Privacy coins like Monero, Zcash, and Dash are suddenly back in the spotlight after years of being dismissed. Coin Bureau explores why they’re rallying, how they work, and why the fight for privacy in crypto is far from over.

Coin Bureau’s Outlook – Key Points

• Privacy is essential for adoption – While blockchains are transparent, real privacy is missing. Coin Bureau argues that privacy coins solve a critical flaw: protecting personal and institutional financial activity.

• Monero remains the gold standard – Despite crackdowns, Monero hasn’t been cracked. Its default privacy features and decentralized mining model make it the most trusted privacy coin.

• Zcash offers optional privacy – ZEC uses zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-SNARKs) to hide transaction details, but its privacy features are opt-in, and most exchanges don’t support them.

• Dash is misunderstood – Often seen as a privacy coin, Dash now downplays that role, though its PrivateSend feature still offers basic mixing privacy.

• Regulatory pressure is rising – With bans looming (like the EU’s proposed 2027 ban), exchanges are delisting privacy coins. Still, Coin Bureau insists privacy is a human right, not a crime.

• Mixers vs. Coins – While mixers like Tornado Cash offer broader privacy, privacy coins remain unmatched for built-in confidentiality.

Final Takeaway
Privacy coins aren’t dead - they’re more relevant than ever. Coin Bureau believes they’re essential for financial freedom in a world of growing surveillance, and their recent price surge reflects rising demand for on-chain privacy.

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