Crypto Bleeding Continues

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Pressure Builds

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! Another tough start to the week for crypto, with sellers still firmly in control. Let’s explore.

Weekend price action failed to find a floor, and instead of the bounce we’d seen in prior weekends, the market slipped even further.

Bitcoin has broken beneath the important 98–100k area and closed the week only slightly above the 2025 yearly open around 93.3k. This leaves the market in an uncomfortable middle zone where volatility can pick up fast.

🔻 Conditions deteriorated across several fronts:

• Today Michael Saylor revealed an $835m BTC buy last week at 102k, but price still broke down afterward which speaks to how weak demand is right now

• ETF flows are negative and the Coinbase premium is firmly below zero which signals institutions stepping away from risk

• US equities remain stable at the moment but if they start pulling back the pressure on crypto will likely intensify

• Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to rise which adds another risk layer to an already shaky market

With all that, sentiment has crashed into Extreme Fear territory which sometimes could mark short term bottoms.

• A retest of the 100k level is possible soon and that level becomes the first real challenge.

Reclaiming it would be the earliest sign of stabilization. Rejecting it would likely drag BTC toward lower levels with little resistance in between.

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Patience Game

🇺🇸 With the US shutdown ending, markets will now have to absorb a wave of delayed economic releases. That usually drives volatility higher because traders need to reprice macro conditions quickly.

• Liquidity is still thin however it should begin to improve as QT pauses, but historically it takes time for better liquidity to actually translate into stronger risk appetite.

• At the moment expectations point toward unchanged rates in December.

Given all of this, crypto is likely to stay under pressure into December with macro uncertainty, thin liquidity, and technical weakness all overlapping.

The bigger picture still leaves room for strength later in 2025. As the data backlog clears and QT formally ends, the setup improves and there is potential for a meaningful rally to build into year end 2025.

Even if BTC drops to around 75k, the larger trend remains intact because that would still be a higher low above the April 2025 bottom at 74k. The broader structure does not break unless we take out those levels.

⌚️ This is the type of environment where traders need to be patient. Let the structure develop, avoid forcing trades, and wait for cleaner confirmation.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Japan Plans Major Crypto Rules And Tax Cuts
Japan is preparing big changes to its crypto laws, including reclassifying 105 tokens as financial products and cutting the tax rate on crypto income from up to 55 percent down to 20 percent.

Hong Kong Starts Real-Value Pilot For Tokenized Deposits
Hong Kong has moved Project Ensemble into a live pilot, testing real-value tokenized deposits and digital asset settlement as part of its push to lead Asia’s tokenization race.

Harvard Boosts Its Bitcoin ETF Position
Harvard University has nearly tripled its holdings of BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, making it the endowment’s largest declared U.S. investment and signaling rising institutional confidence.

DOJ Seizes $15 Million USDT From North Korean Hackers
The U.S. Justice Department seized $15.1 million in stolen USDT and secured guilty pleas from individuals who helped North Korean IT workers infiltrate 136 American companies.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin Falls Below the 50 Week Moving Average (17.11.2025 Summary)

Benjamin Cowen reacts to a key technical event - Bitcoin just closed below its 50-week moving average, a level that often signals major cycle shifts. He explores whether this marks the top of the bull market or just a short-term fakeout.

Key Points – Benjamin’s Outlook

• Historical signal of cycle tops – In past post-halving years, Bitcoin closing below the 50-week MA usually preceded deeper bear market drops. It’s a serious red flag that can’t be ignored.

• Still room for doubt – One close isn’t enough for confirmation. Cowen says two consecutive weekly closes below this line would increase the odds to 70% that the cycle top is in.

• No euphoria phase yet – Unlike previous bull tops, this one feels more like apathy than mania, resembling 2019’s muted peak. That makes the current drop unusual and harder to interpret.

• Death cross timing matters – Death crosses (when the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day) sometimes mark local bottoms, but not always. Cowen warns this time might differ.

• A rally to the 200-day MA likely – Even if the top is in, he expects a bounce back toward the 200-day moving average at some point, which could be around $60K–$70K.

Final Takeaway
Cowen leans cautiously bearish. The first weekly close below the 50-week moving average is a warning, and a second would strongly suggest the top is in. Still, he believes rallies are possible - even likely - before deeper corrections. Whether it’s a real breakdown or a fakeout, the next few days will be key.

CoinBureau – Ethereum's Next Upgrade Could Cause A HUGE ETH Rally!! (17.11.2025 Summary)

Louis from Coin Bureau breaks down Ethereum’s upcoming Fusaka upgrade - a major hard fork launching on December 3. While it may not be flashy, its under-the-hood improvements could boost scalability, lower costs, and spark a meaningful ETH rally if the macro backdrop cooperates.

Louis’ Outlook – Key Points

• Fusaka = 12 powerful upgrades – Includes EIP-7594 (Pure DOS), which makes data handling more efficient and unlocks better performance for Layer 2s, helping ETH scale without compromising decentralization.

• Focus on scalability and UX – While previous upgrades improved features like smart wallets, Fusaka enhances Ethereum’s core infrastructure, making it faster, cheaper, and easier to build on.

• Institutions are watching – With Ethereum positioning itself as the “institutional liquidity layer,” upgrades like Fusaka strengthen its appeal to Wall Street and pave the way for adoption.

• Historical pattern – ETH tends to rally before upgrades, then cool off post-launch. Fusaka could trigger a similar rally, but expectations for a new all-time high may be too optimistic in this market.

• Next catalysts: staked ETH ETFs – Beyond Fusaka, ETH could benefit from pending ETF approvals with staking rewards, potentially driving new institutional flows.

Final Takeaway
Fusaka may not grab headlines, but it’s a big deal for Ethereum’s long-term health. With strong fundamentals and historical upgrade patterns in play, ETH could see a short-term rally. Still, Louis stays cautious - macro conditions and follow-up catalysts will decide how far ETH can run.

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