Crypto Watches From the Sidelines

DAILY MARKET OVERVIEW

Bitcoin's Narrative Gets Hijacked

👋 Hey, Crypto Enthusiasts! The market has made its choice, and it's not crypto.

Gold just broke $5,000 for the first time in history. Silver blasted past $115 before pulling back to $105. These aren't small moves. They're the kind of parabolic runs that normally happen in crypto, except this time they're happening in metals that have been around for thousands of years.

Roughly half of gold's entire dollar value has been created in just the past 20 months. That's what happens when institutional trust breaks down and central banks start hoarding non-sovereign assets.

• After Russia's reserves got seized in 2022, central bank gold purchases doubled.

• Now even Norway is warning about sovereign wealth confiscation risk, and Germany wants its gold back from the New York Fed.

❌ This isn't a normal commodity cycle. It's a rotation into hard assets that governments can't control or devalue. The problem for crypto is simple: that thesis was supposed to belong to Bitcoin, but right now metals are running with it instead.

Bitcoin is sitting around $87,700, up about 500% since late 2017. Silver is up 517% over that same period. The catch-up trade everyone expected to flow into crypto went to metals instead, and there's no sign that's changing soon.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded five straight days of outflows totaling $1.7 billion. That's not panic selling, but it's clear money isn't rotating back into crypto while metals are making new highs. Volume tells the story too. The iShares Silver Trust saw $32 billion in turnover Monday, 15 times its daily average and more than any security on earth that day.

🏃 Retail is chasing metals now, not crypto. That means the blow-off top is probably close, but it also means crypto is on the sidelines until something changes. The narrative shifted, and Bitcoin hasn't found a way to take it back yet. ⚠️

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SOCIAL SENTIMENT

Whales Exit, But Hope Remains

A nine-year dormant Ethereum wallet moved its entire position this week. 135,284 ETH worth $397 million went to Gemini after sitting idle since 2017. The wallet bought around $90 per ETH and just locked in $385 million in profit. When old wallets wake up during weakness, traders assume selling is coming.

Regulatory uncertainty isn't helping either. The Clarity Act looked like a done deal a few weeks ago with 80% odds of passing. Now it's closer to a coin flip after Coinbase's CEO called the current version unworkable. Without clear regulation, crypto faces a longer road where real adoption has to do the heavy lifting instead of policy tailwinds.

🌏 On the bright side, Hyperliquid is proving there's still demand when products deliver. The platform hit a new all-time high with over $790 million in HIP-3 open interest, driven mostly by commodities and stock trading.

• Turns out traders want exposure to the metals rally, and Hyperliquid gave them a way to get it on-chain. The platform is even claiming tighter spreads on Bitcoin perps than Binance now.

It's a reminder that crypto isn't completely dead. Projects offering actual utility are still finding users. But for the broader market, confidence won't return until either regulation gets sorted or price can hold a sustained move higher. Right now, most are just waiting to see which comes first.

NEWS OVERVIEW

The Latest Crypto Headlines 📰 

Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Partner of MLS
Polymarket signed a multi-year exclusive deal with Major League Soccer, deepening prediction markets’ role in live sports engagement and fan-driven data experiences.

Bitwise Launches Onchain USDC Vault Targeting 6% Yield
Bitwise entered DeFi vault management via Morpho, offering onchain USDC yield with institutional risk oversight and positioning vaults as a new investment format.

BlackRock Plans Bitcoin ETF With Built-In Yield Strategy
BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin ETF that combines spot exposure with options-based income, giving investors a new way to earn yield on BTC holdings.

BitMine Pushes Closer to 5% Ethereum Treasury Goal
Tom Lee’s BitMine expanded its ETH holdings to over 4.2 million coins, strengthening its position as the largest corporate Ethereum treasury holder.

YOUTUBE INFLUENCER SUMMARY

Summary From The Top Influencers 📷️ 

Benjamin Cowen – Bitcoin: Bear Market Resistance Band (27.01.2026 Summary)

In this video, Benjamin Cowen explains why Bitcoin’s former bull market support band should now be viewed as bear market resistance. His core point is simple: the cycle looks finished, and price behavior is starting to match past bear markets more than bull phases.

What Cowen is saying (in plain terms)

• Bitcoin respected the bull market support band for most of the cycle, but once it lost that level, the role flipped

• Past Bitcoin cycles have lasted around the same number of days, and this one lines up almost perfectly, which makes it hard to argue the cycle is still ongoing

• Midterm years have historically been bear markets for Bitcoin, like 2014, 2018, and 2022, so 2026 fitting that pattern is not unusual

• In bear markets, Bitcoin often makes slightly lower highs and lower lows rather than crashing straight down

• Rallies back into the old support band are normal, but in this phase they tend to fail and act as resistance

• Cowen compares the current setup to 2019, where Bitcoin topped on apathy, not hype, and then slowly bled lower

• He thinks a sweep of the April 2025 low is a realistic outcome before the next true bull phase begins

• Measuring Bitcoin against gold and silver shows even more weakness than the USD chart suggests, reinforcing the bear market view

Takeaway
Cowen’s view is that Bitcoin is already in a bear market and that the bull market support band should be treated as resistance until proven otherwise. His base case is more sideways-to-down movement into summer 2026, not an immediate return to a bull run.

Paul Barron – Dollar Collapse vs Macro Economy (27.01.2026 Summary)

Paul Barron talks with Rebecca Walser about dollar weakness, Fed policy, and why gold, silver, and crypto are reacting so differently in the current macro environment.

Key points

• The Fed is likely stuck. Walser thinks the most realistic outcome is just one rate cut, even though markets are hoping for more. Strong GDP and stubborn inflation give the Fed little reason to rush.

• Dollar weakness matters. The US dollar had one of its weakest years in decades, which raises concern about long-term purchasing power and global confidence.

• Gold and silver are sending a clear message. Central banks are quietly accumulating physical metals, and Walser believes price discovery is still in its early stages.

• Crypto is still a long-term bet, not a short-term safe haven. Bitcoin represents innovation and risk, while tokenized gold feels safer for investors who want blockchain exposure backed by real assets.

• Regulation remains the big wildcard. Until clear rules are in place, crypto adoption will move slower and stay volatile.

• Government shutdowns and macro shocks create uncertainty. Markets dislike that in the short term, but over time it often pushes people to look for alternatives outside traditional systems.

Final takeaway
Walser’s view is that hard assets are winning right now, the Fed is boxed in, and crypto’s future is still strong, but patience is required while regulation and macro pressure play out.

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